Politics

$562.9K Vol.2 months left

$44.2M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
October 31, 202763%

$8.8M Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.3M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?

220-23910%
240-25910%

$58.6K Vol.weekly

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$42.0M Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)59%
Joe Lombardo (R)43%

$480.4K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$141.3K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20263%

$29.4M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3118%
November 3011%

$17.2M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

25%chance

Arizona Governor Election Winner

Katie Hobbs (D)93%
Andy Biggs (R)9%

$175.9K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar68%
Likud32%

$937.5K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

$12.7M Vol.2 months left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202756%
Netanyahu - Israel PM29%

$1.2M Vol.annual

NC-11 House Election Winner

Jamie Ager (D)85%
Jennifer Balkcom (R)14%

$56.0K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3034%
October 313%

$285.9K Vol.

Idaho Senate Election Winner

Jim Risch (R)96%
Todd Achilles (I)4%

$172.3K Vol.

CA-06 House Election Winner

Democratic Party97%
Republican Party1%

$90.6K Vol.

CA-04 House Election Winner

Democratic Party93%
Republican Party3%

$40.5K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.8M Vol.14 days left

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3131%
November 3019%

$1.6M Vol.

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner

Chris Pappas (D)91%
John E. Sununu (R)11%

$362.4K Vol.

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$112.4K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 318%

$427.8K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.4M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Kentucky?

Maduro15%
KFC / Chicken14%

$34.8K Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)93%
John James (R)6%

$338.0K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%58%
Iotova 10-20%10%

$46.3K Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)41%

$2.3M Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)67%
Jon Husted (R)35%

$1.3M Vol.

KS-04 House Election Winner

Ron Estes (R)95%
Katy Tyndell (D)5%

$131.5K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%chance

$15.0M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2442%
<2024%

$571.0K Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an62%
Puma Shen38%

$1.2M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.4M Vol.2 months left

OH-07 House Election Winner

Brian Poindexter (D)83%
Max Miller (R)17%

$109.2K Vol.

WA-05 House Election Winner

$84.4K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

$24.1M Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić68%
Ilija Srdanović23%

$1.4M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$298.1K Vol.2 months left

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$257.7K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.9M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$27.5K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$398.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?

June 30, 202715%
December 31, 20263%

$24.6K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%

$1.4M Vol.

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?

6-7%38%
7-8%28%

$18.2K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

37%chance

$219.5K Vol.2 months left

FL-03 House Election Winner

Kat Cammack (R)95%
Seth Harp (D)4%

$57.7K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202742%
June 30, 202732%

$2.9M Vol.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$646.6K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow76%
Brad Bradford25%

$419.8K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%26%
Below 4.6%23%

$410.3K Vol.

PA-16 House Election Winner

Mike Kelly (R)96%
Justin Wagner (D)4%

$87.6K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.6M Vol.

TN-07 House Election Winner

$54.5K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro66%
Lula35%

$112.0K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$214.8K Vol.

NH-02 House Election Winner

$51.7K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%
December 3112%

$27.5M Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

31%chance

$194.5K Vol.2 months left

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$34.3K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$308.4K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202720%
December 31, 202610%

$272.7K Vol.

IA-04 House Election Winner

Chris McGowan (R)96%
David Dawson (D)1%

$64.8K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$415.0K Vol.2 months left

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 1899%
October 2198%

$2.1M Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Jordan6%

$1.8M Vol.

North Carolina Senate Election Winner

Roy Cooper (D)96%
Michael Whatley (R)4%

$231.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$577.1K Vol.2 months left

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202712%

$742.1K Vol.

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)89%
Zach Lahn (R)13%

$257.5K Vol.

South Carolina Governor Election Winner

$26.7K Vol.

Yokohama Mayoral Election Winner

Atsumi Harasawa96%
Kazuma Nakatani3%

$19.9K Vol.

VA-02 House Election Winner

Elaine Luria (D)89%
Jen Kiggans (R)11%

$57.3K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4740%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

Zoran Janković64%
Luka Mesec23%

$32.9K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula71%
Flavio Bolsonaro28%

$91.5K Vol.

NJ-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%25%
Republican 25-30%20%

$24.1K Vol.

Alabama Governor Election Winner

Tommy Tuberville (R)95%
Doug Jones (D)5%

$48.7K Vol.

Tlaxcala Governor Election Winner

$85.5K Vol.

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Talarico 0-3%32%
Paxton 0-3%31%

$40.4K Vol.

$953.6K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China76%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together85%
The Democrats6%

$72.3K Vol.

ME-02 House Election Winner

Paul LePage (R)63%
Matthew Dunlap (D)39%

$37.2K Vol.

Kelowna Mayoral Election

Tom Dyas57%
Ron Cannan41%

$33.7K Vol.

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

10%chance

$45.7K Vol.2 months left

TN-04 House Election Winner

$133.5K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202636%
November 30, 202624%

$759.3K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election: Sedgwick County Winner

Roger Marshall (R)78%
Adam Hamilton (D)21%

$5.9K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3131%

$139.2K Vol.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

25%chance

$3.9M Vol.17 days left

New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Su Chiao-hui60%
Lee Shu-chuan41%

$119.4K Vol.

Richmond Mayoral Election

Rob Howard42%
Kash Heed39%

$45.6K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$657.9K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Deb Haaland (D)94%
Gregg Hull (R)6%

$75.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen12%

$66.1K Vol.

Osborn flips Ricketts for Nebraska Senate by November 2?

$11.2K Vol.16 days left

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S + MP19%
S17%

$107.5K Vol.

How many Israeli elections before government formed?

161%
230%

$70.7K Vol.

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)96%
Maria Jukic (D)3%

$101.5K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$451.4K Vol.3 months left

$391.1K Vol.2 days left

Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

28%chance

Minnesota Governor Election Winner

Amy Klobuchar (D)96%
Lisa Demuth (R)4%

$96.4K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$75.2K Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%54%
Remain 20–40%23%

$40.2K Vol.

Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?

17%chance

$17.3K Vol.14 days left

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$618.1K Vol.2 months left

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$135.9K Vol.14 days left

Will Israel election happen as scheduled?

89%chance

$73.4K Vol.10 days left

NC-01 House Election Winner

Don Davis (D)71%
Laurie Buckhout (R)30%

$38.9K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

140-15932%
120-13922%

$41.5K Vol.daily

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman53%
Karen Bass47%

$15.4M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson17%

$10.2M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

38%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez42%
Jon Ossoff30%

$82.1K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
Mike Collins (R)4%

$242.8K Vol.

Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner

Miloš Vučević32%
Ana Brnabić20%

$89.8K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

14%chance

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$441.5K Vol.

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↑ 40%31%
↓ 30%24%

$89.9K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$805.1K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson77%
David Eby23%

$173.4K Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$74.4K Vol.2 months left

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3123%
October 314%

$76.3K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

$510.8K Vol.8 months left

Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Nelly Dever60%
Mike O'Reilly42%

$47.5K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Goiás

Flavio Bolsonaro98%
Lula2%

$5.2K Vol.

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

October 3196%
December 3195%

$894.3K Vol.

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

Pete Fry59%
Ken Sim42%

$286.9K Vol.

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$562.1K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais

Flavio Bolsonaro91%
Lula5%

$20.2K Vol.

CZ # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

20-3981%
<2012%

$10.7K Vol.daily

North Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory

Cooper 9-12%23%
Cooper 12-15%22%

$21.6K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

66-70%41%
62-66%38%

$22.3K Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD94%
UDMR8%

$82.2K Vol.

Next Romania PM appointed by…?

December 3196%
October 3192%

$67.7K Vol.

Talarico Texas Senate odds hit __ by November 2?

↑ 70%33%
↑ 80%17%

$5.6K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin82%
Mohammed bin Salman78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3164%
Qatar14%

$167.1K Vol.

Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

25%chance

$24.8K Vol.2 months left

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)87%
Michele Tafoya (R)14%

$276.2K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+98%
960-9991%

$391.8K Vol.daily

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat96%
PSD3%

$352.3K Vol.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

$159.9K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Kaitlan Collins90%
Tucker Carlson65%

$142.1K Vol.monthly

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202713%

$6.0M Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↑ 39%77%
↓ 37%72%

$13.0K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Husted flips Brown for Ohio Senate by November 2?

$8.3K Vol.16 days left

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD92%
PSD + AUR2%

$102.1K Vol.

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic64%
Republican35%

$2.5M Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3063%
October 3140%

$17.5K Vol.

Florida Senate Election Winner

Ashley Moody (R)91%
Angie Nixon (D)10%

$232.4K Vol.

NH-01 House Election Winner

$52.4K Vol.

Senate Three-Way Combo: Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire

Dems sweep67%
Reps MI, Dems MN & NH21%

$13.9K Vol.

AZ-01 House Election Winner

Amish Shah (D)83%
Jay Feely (R)18%

$70.1K Vol.

Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

$257.7K Vol.

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Texas72%
Iowa72%

$112.7K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Li Xi7%
Wang Huning5%

$256.3K Vol.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

96%chance

$37.2K Vol.6 days left

Zelenskyy # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

80-9945%
100-11933%

$7.2K Vol.daily

IL-14 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 25-30%26%
Democrat 20-25%23%

$17.5K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)75%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 26%

$578.1K Vol.

Texas Senate Election: Tarrant County Winner

James Talarico (D)95%
Ken Paxton (R)5%

$28.3K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)59%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$905.7K Vol.

Kentucky Governor Republican Primary Winner (2027)

James Comer56%
Thomas Massie14%

$2.9K Vol.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Pete Buttigieg29%
Rahm Emanuel27%

$1.2M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon38%
Édouard Philippe30%

$18.9K Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan24%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$506.9K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Hamilton Wins38%
Marshall 0-5%37%

$14.4K Vol.

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp92%
Stefan Evers8%

$242.2K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202767%
January 15, 202737%

$864.6K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$309.8K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)64%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$917.3K Vol.

Lima Mayoral Election Winner

$546.7K Vol.

Charlottetown, PEI Mayoral Election Winner

Philip Brown59%
Daniel Mullen6%

$19.7K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?

23%chance

$10.0K Vol.44 days left

Macron out by...?

$186.5K Vol.2 months left

$49.7K Vol.2 months left

Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place

Otzma Yehudit32%
The Democrats31%

$11.8K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time57%
60+24%

$924.4K Vol.

Who will be the next US Ambassador to Greece?

Geoffrey Pyatt19%
John Catsimatidis19%

$8.6K Vol.

NV-03 House Election Winner

Susie Lee (D)94%
Martin O'Donnell (R)6%

$11.9K Vol.

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?

98%chance

$18.7K Vol.1 year left

Ted Cruz # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?

160-17937%
200+35%

$2.4K Vol.daily

CT-05 House Election Winner

Jahana Hayes (D)96%
Chris Shea (R)3%

$11.7K Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Jackson 0-3%25%
Jackson 3-6%22%

$11.8K Vol.

Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?

6-739%
4-528%

$14.8K Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$440.7K Vol.

NV-01 House Election Winner

Dina Titus (D)96%
Carrie Buck (R)4%

$35.1K Vol.

Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?

President66%
Senate33%

$47.5K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202741%
Susie Wiles23%

$133.7K Vol.annual

LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?

Raman 0-4%24%
Bass 0-4%21%

$22.0K Vol.

Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Craig Hodge92%
Trish Mandewo10%

$21.2K Vol.

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund71%
Sven Schulze3%

$475.3K Vol.

VA-01 House Election Winner

Shannon Taylor (D)56%
Rob Wittman (R)45%

$72.6K Vol.

CZ # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

20-3955%
<2040%

$7.1K Vol.daily

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan38%
Rafael Grossi21%

$228.5K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?

200+25%
160-17920%

$2.2K Vol.daily

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

11%chance

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha20%

$50.5K Vol.

Florida Governor Election Winner

Byron Donalds (R) 80%
David Jolly (D)21%

$299.2K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

4M-4.2M28%
4.2M-4.4M27%

$12.2K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner

Allyson60%
Cadu de Lula40%

$77.7K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 2097%
October 2696%

$58.2K Vol.monthly

Texas Senate favorite on November 2?

89%chance

$4.7K Vol.16 days left

Next President of the National Rally in 2026?

Jordan Bardella>99%
Jean-Philippe Tanguy<1%

$42.6K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Ohio Senate favorite on November 2?

98%chance

$3.5K Vol.16 days left

AZ-02 House Election Winner

Eli Crane (R)75%
Jonathan Nez (D)25%

$17.9K Vol.

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

545%
424%

$12.9K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

290K-305K37%
305K-320K16%

$16.9K Vol.

White House # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+97%
180-1993%

$11.3K Vol.daily

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 10-15%5%
Ruas 5-10%4%

$43.9K Vol.

AR-02 House Election Winner

French Hill (R)83%
Chris Jones (D)18%

$41.8K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?

$175.9K Vol.2 months left

$35.0K Vol.13 days left

Michigan Senate Election: Oakland County Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)86%
Mike Rogers (R)9%

$4.2K Vol.

Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 10-15%20%
Democrat 15-20%19%

$23.8K Vol.

Maine Governor Election Winner

$46.2K Vol.

NY-12 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 60-65%29%
Democrat 65-70%28%

$18.9K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Federal District

Flavio Bolsonaro98%
Lula1%

$9.8K Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

463%
515%

$7.6M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff34%
Jared Kushner33%

$1.5M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen89%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon39%

$384.0K Vol.

Amazonas Governor Election Winner

Omar Aziz86%
Professora Maria do Carmo14%

$80.7K Vol.

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)68%
Sam Forstag (D)34%

$92.6K Vol.

TN-05 House Election Winner

Charlie Hatcher (R)94%
Chaz Molder (D)7%

$73.5K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%66%
4.0%14%

$7.1M Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

SPD78%
Grüne77%

$24.5K Vol.

Surrey Mayoral Election

Brenda Locke97%
Mike Starchuk1%

$43.5K Vol.

Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

60%chance

$6.2K Vol.10 days left

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE42%
USA22%

$36.1K Vol.

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by...?

December 3189%
October 3111%

$30.9K Vol.

Florida Senate Election: Turnout

9M+29%
7.75M-8M23%

$17.6K Vol.

Which Senate races will be within 1%?

Kansas24%
Iowa21%

$23.8K Vol.

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

15%chance

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

The Democrats60%
Yashar59%

$62.4K Vol.

Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

70%chance

$19.6K Vol.2 months left

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

9%chance

$752.7K Vol.2 months left

Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Zac de Vries78%
Rishi Sharma20%

$57.6K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3131%
November 3026%

$419.1K Vol.

Delta, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Dylan Kruger54%
Melissa Granum30%

$28.6K Vol.

Senate Three-Way Combo: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska

Reps sweep40%
Dems IA & KS, Ind NE18%

$3.4K Vol.

New Westminster, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Patrick Johnstone81%
Daniel Fontaine18%

$12.1K Vol.

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

Florida99%
California98%

$434.8K Vol.

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

John Healey6%
Douglas Alexander6%

$138.0K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Margin of Victory

Turek 0-3%32%
Hinson 0-3%21%

$25.9K Vol.

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$356.3K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Tally Gotliv14%

$52.1K Vol.

Nigerian Presidential Election Winner

Bola Tinubu73%
Peter Obi23%

$132.1K Vol.

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3184%
October 3125%

$466.0K Vol.

Democratic Senate odds on October 23?

62-64%40%
64-66%28%

$3.4K Vol.weekly

Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?

$55.0K Vol.2 months left

Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Aziz 6-10%30%
Aziz 10-15%29%

$7.4K Vol.

Whistler, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Jack Crompton95%
Marco Zunino3%

$14.3K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3128%
October 315%

$6.7M Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Ursula von der Leyen97%
Friedrich Merz92%

$215.1K Vol.monthly

Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner

Ken Paxton (R)53%
James Talarico (D)48%

$9.2K Vol.

NYC Mayor # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

20-3988%
40-596%

$3.6K Vol.daily

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

085%
114%

$3.0K Vol.

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

$94.1K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro95%
Bryson DeChambeau68%

$77.6K Vol.monthly

Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?

Nobody27%
Pete Hegseth23%

$1.7K Vol.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 202760%
December 3113%

$4.3M Vol.

FL-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 5-10%34%
Republican 10-15%32%

$25.1K Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP85%
PSOE17%

$115.5K Vol.

ID-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%26%
Republican 35-40%25%

$16.1K Vol.

Ukraine election held by...?

$240.5K Vol.2 months left

Elon Musk # tweets October 19 - October 21, 2026?

40-6442%
65-8928%

$1.2K Vol.daily

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 20267%

$609.3K Vol.

US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?

March 3123%
December 3111%

$7.1K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase28%
Fuel duty increase21%

$14.8K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

SPD98%
Grüne95%

$25.1K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?

65%chance

$4.9K Vol.8 days left

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

8%chance

$135.1K Vol.2 months left

Prince George, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Simon Yu41%
Kyle Sampson34%

$22.2K Vol.

Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?

December 31, 20268%
November 2, 2026<1%

$48.9K Vol.

OR-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%31%
Democrat 15-20%16%

$33.0K Vol.

Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

3.25-3.75%47%
<2.75%24%

$7.5K Vol.

Chihuahua Congress Election Winner

Morena42%
PAN24%

$7.7K Vol.

Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?

20%chance

$5.6K Vol.16 days left

Virginia Senate Election: Turnout

3.25M-3.5M22%
3.5M-3.75M16%

$11.1K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: Turnout

72-74%41%
74%+28%

$3.6K Vol.

Trump approval rating on October 23?

38.5–38.934%
38.0–38.424%

$3.7K Vol.weekly

TN-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%31%
Republican 15-20%23%

$13.2K Vol.

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$186.3K Vol.

OH-13 House Election Winner

Emilia Sykes (D)95%
Carey Coleman (R)1%

$43.4K Vol.

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

$8.7K Vol.2 months left

Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?

62%chance

$44.5K Vol.8 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3182%
November 3075%

$405.8K Vol.

NY-15 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 65-70%33%
Democrat 60-65%28%

$13.1K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

800K-900K37%
700K-800K35%

$9.0K Vol.

VA-06 House Election Winner

Ben Cline (R)94%
Beth Macy (D)7%

$121.7K Vol.

Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Gary Sulz83%
Taha Attiah13%

$32.1K Vol.

NM-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 5-10%31%
Democrat 15-20%22%

$19.7K Vol.

CA-40 House Election Winner (Individual)

Ken Calvert53%
Young Kim44%

$17.2K Vol.

TX-11 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 30-35%29%
Republican 25-30%25%

$21.6K Vol.

MN-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%28%
Democrat 15-20%26%

$10.7K Vol.

NE-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 45-50%21%
Republican 50-55%20%

$24.5K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

100-11924%
200+18%

$22.6K Vol.daily

US strike on Colombia by...?

21%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

95%chance

$5.8K Vol.13 days left

Oklahoma Senate Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25-30%27%
Republican 20-25%23%

$9.8K Vol.

NY-01 House Election Winner

Nick LaLota (R)86%
Chris Gallant (D)13%

$52.5K Vol.

Which party will win the Arizona State Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party71%
Republican Party19%

$10.6K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place

Likud69%
Yashar27%

$24.4K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner

Roger Marshall (R)76%
Adam Hamilton (D)23%

$1.0K Vol.

MO-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 3%+95%
Republican 0-3%3%

$64.2K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula64%
Flavio Bolsonaro37%

$101.0K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova89%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$409.0K Vol.2 months left

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?

November 305%
October 312%

$28.9K Vol.

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

December 3142%
November 3024%

$261.3K Vol.

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep73%
Reps sweep14%

$63.2K Vol.

NY-17 House Election Winner

Cait Conley (D)61%
Mike Lawler (R)41%

$69.2K Vol.

Michigan Senate Election: Macomb County Winner

Mike Rogers (R)63%
Abdul El-Sayed (D)25%

$7.4K Vol.

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

6-7%54%
5-6%34%

$12.3K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%21%
Republican 3-6%19%

$20.0K Vol.

TX-15 House Election Winner

Bobby Pulido (D)83%
Monica De La Cruz (R)18%

$66.5K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory

Abbott 6-9%21%
Abbott 3-6%20%

$11.2K Vol.

Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election Winner

Erwin Wiens56%
Andrea Kaiser31%

$20.3K Vol.

South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory

Republican 15-20%25%
Republican 20-25%22%

$20.7K Vol.

California Governor Election: Turnout

13M-13.5M32%
10.5M-11M26%

$10.5K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Russia coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202712%
December 31, 20263%

$149.7K Vol.

Next Mayor of eThekwini (Durban)?

Haniff Hoosen53%
Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi25%

$33.4K Vol.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

Andy Beshear88%
Ted Cruz83%

$116.2K Vol.

Which party will win white women in the midterms?

Democrats75%
Republicans25%

$36.3K Vol.

OH-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 0-3%19%
Democrat 3-6%18%

$19.2K Vol.

West Vancouver, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Mark Sager58%
Kirk LaPointe31%

$10.9K Vol.

TX-18 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 60-65%32%
Democrat 55-60%20%

$10.5K Vol.

FL-26 House Election Winner

$85.6K Vol.

Trump goes to space in 2026?

$57.7K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

96%chance

$10.6K Vol.14 days left

TX-17 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%32%
Republican 15-20%24%

$12.0K Vol.

Collins flips Jackson for Maine Senate by November 2?

41%chance

$4.0K Vol.16 days left

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

24%chance

$20.2K Vol.2 months left

Michoacán Governor Election Winner

Carlos Torres Piña35%
Grecia Quiroz28%

$61.2K Vol.

Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner

Carolyn Parrish63%
Bonnie Crombie32%

$23.0K Vol.

South Dakota Senate Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-10%30%
Republican 20-25%20%

$22.0K Vol.

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Ra'am95%
RZP-Zehut86%

$15.8K Vol.

North Carolina Senate Election: Turnout

4.1M-4.3M31%
3.9M-4.1M27%

$18.1K Vol.

TX-27 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 15-20%30%
Republican 5-10%25%

$16.7K Vol.

TN-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%42%
Republican 25-30%22%

$12.2K Vol.

Colorado Senate Election: Turnout

2.55M-2.7M29%
2.7M-2.85M25%

$12.8K Vol.

Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?

$3.3K Vol.14 days left

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3160%
October 2010%

$7.7K Vol.

MS-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Democrat 30-35%34%
Democrat 25-30%30%

$23.0K Vol.

OK-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 30-35%24%
Republican 35-40%24%

$19.8K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Ossoff 9-12%27%
Ossoff 6-9%21%

$26.6K Vol.

Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?

$207.2K Vol.2 months left

$4.5K Vol.2 months left

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

21%chance

Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?

$10.3K Vol.16 days left

TX-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6-9%20%
Republican 12-15%19%

$14.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula81%
Flavio Bolsonaro19%

$57.2K Vol.

New York Governor Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 15-20%24%
Democrat 10-15%21%

$10.0K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$95.5K Vol.

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Chuck Schumer56%
John Thune25%

$173.5K Vol.

Cambridge, ON Mayoral Election Winner

Scott Hamilton56%
Jan Liggett29%

$12.0K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20263%

$119.4K Vol.

Texas Lieutenant Governor Election Winner

Dan Patrick (R)74%
Vikki Goodwin (D)27%

$11.6K Vol.

White House # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?

200+79%
180-19920%

$673.9 Vol.daily

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

36%64%
35%27%

$164.8K Vol.

Acre Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Mailza 10-15%46%
Mailza 20%+43%

$5.4K Vol.

Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner

Liberal–National81%
Labor16%

$5.3K Vol.

NJ-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 25-30%35%
Democrat 20-25%28%

$18.1K Vol.

Oregon Governor Election Margin of Victory

Kotek 6-9%19%
Kotek 9-12%18%

$15.8K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202763%
June 30, 202750%

$1.1M Vol.

MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 30%+62%
Republican 25-30%17%

$16.9K Vol.

New York Governor Election: Turnout

6M-6.5M31%
5.5M-6M23%

$10.8K Vol.

Nuevo León Governor Election Winner

$59.6K Vol.

NY-03 House Election Winner

Tom Suozzi (D)90%
Mike LiPetri (R)11%

$48.4K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Dad / Daddy>99%
Third Term50%

$13.4K Vol.weekly

Nevada Governor Election Margin of Victory

Ford 0-3%20%
Lombardo 0-3%18%

$16.0K Vol.

SAVE Act becomes law by...?

$260.6K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump endorse?

51%chance

$151.4K Vol.16 days left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$851.0K Vol.14 days left

Kitchener, ON Mayoral Election Winner

Berry Vrbanovic97%
Manikantan Nair2%

$4.5K Vol.

Kansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?

82%chance

$1.9K Vol.5 months left

Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

<585%
5-911%

$4.8K Vol.daily

Which Dems will underperform Kamala?

Tina Kotek: OR-Gov93%
Troy Jackson: ME-Sen79%

$13.7K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

MS-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Republican 25-30%34%
Republican 20-25%22%

$26.6K Vol.

Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Kevin Acton85%
Harwinder Sandhu15%

$7.8K Vol.

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3134%
October 3112%

$55.0K Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

140-15941%
160-17925%

$12.0K Vol.daily

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$273.4K Vol.

NV-04 House Election Winner

$26.6K Vol.

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1634%
11-1324%

$12.3K Vol.

MD-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 9-12%23%
Republican 15-18%22%

$10.4K Vol.

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

December 3176%
October 31<1%

$141.3K Vol.

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Democrats 8-10%28%
Democrats 6-8%20%

$158.6K Vol.

Serbia Election: Student List Vote Share?

40-45%30%
35-40%28%

$25.8K Vol.

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

205-20927%
Below 19024%

$334.7K Vol.

New South Wales Parliamentary Election Winner

Labor63%
Liberal–National19%

$3.6K Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$204.3K Vol.

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

31%chance

$25.1K Vol.2 months left

AK-AL House Election Winner

Republican Party86%
Bill Hill14%

$61.9K Vol.

CA-01 House Election Winner

$46.7K Vol.

HI-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 50-55%32%
Democrat 45-50%26%

$25.4K Vol.

Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round)

3-6 points behind27%
0-3 points behind26%

$4.0K Vol.

FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?

<1%chance

$11.8K Vol.14 days left

How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?

22–2334%
24–2528%

$706.3K Vol.

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Prize50%
Japan36%

$4.2K Vol.weekly

Žilina Region Governor Election Winner

Erika Jurinová84%
Igor Choma12%

$13.4K Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

VA-10 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 25-30%28%
Democrat 20-25%22%

$15.0K Vol.

Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?

↓ 7%30%
↑ 12%14%

$187.0K Vol.

MO-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 60-65%23%
Democrat 50-55%17%

$23.6K Vol.

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

$227.2K Vol.2 months left

Nitra Mayoral Election Winner

Marek Hattas83%
Igor Kršiak7%

$25.4K Vol.

Kathmandu Mayoral Election Winner

RSP32%
UML28%

$1.8K Vol.

Košice Region Governor Election Winner

Rastislav Trnka73%
Marián Porvažník24%

$8.3K Vol.

US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?

$671.1K Vol.2 months left

$7.5K Vol.2 months left

Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by...?

June 3061%
December 318%

$98.6K Vol.

PA-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 3-6%31%
Democrat 6-9%19%

$16.8K Vol.

West Virginia Senate Election Winner

$17.5K Vol.

Zacatecas Congress Election Winner

Morena55%
PAN26%

$6.6K Vol.

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?

≤46 and ≤19229%
47–49 and 193–20725%

$79.1K Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

Closest Governor's Race?

Georgia18%
Nevada12%

$25.7K Vol.

Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout

900K-975K35%
1.05M+25%

$40.4K Vol.

Vermont Governor Election: Turnout

275K-300K25%
325K-350K22%

$13.3K Vol.

2027 Chicago Mayoral Election

Alexi Giannoulias69%
Brandon Johnson15%

$7.9K Vol.

NY-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 55-60%31%
Democrat 60-65%29%

$16.3K Vol.

El Salvador Legislative Election: 3rd Place

PCN35%
PDC24%

$7.8K Vol.

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

51%chance

$28.3K Vol.17 days left

UT-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 15-20%20%
Republican 5-15%18%

$15.2K Vol.

TX-30 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 60-65%24%
Democrat 50-55%23%

$16.2K Vol.

Tennessee Governor Election Winner

$21.1K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Germany14%
Japan14%

$682.0K Vol.annual

Pingtung County Magistrate Election Winner

Chou Chun-mi83%
Su Ching-chuan12%

$6.8K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round Winner

Iliana Iotova97%
Andrey Gyurov3%

$18.5K Vol.

RI-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 40-45%34%
Democrat 30-35%24%

$13.7K Vol.

NY-11 House Election Winner

$40.6K Vol.

2026 Williamson County Judge Election Winner

Heather Jefts69%
Steven Snell30%

$26.1K Vol.

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

41%chance

$55.2K Vol.2 months left

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$231.5K Vol.2 months left

Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout

1.8M-2M39%
2M-2.2M29%

$17.1K Vol.

NJ-12 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 30-35%29%
Democrat 35-40%28%

$12.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2328%
24-2523%

$20.3K Vol.

TX-33 House Election Winner

$17.6K Vol.

KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25-30%23%
Republican 20-25%20%

$31.0K Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Arkansas Governor Election Margin of Victory

Republican 5-10%24%
Republican 10-15%24%

$18.5K Vol.

CA-22 House Election Winner

$27.9K Vol.

MI-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%25%
Democrat 0-3%19%

$10.9K Vol.

Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?

11%chance

$3.5K Vol.2 months left

OH-08 House Election Winner

$18.3K Vol.

NYC Mayor # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

20-3993%
40-598%

$9.1K Vol.daily

Pennsylvania State Senate Winner 2026?

Democratic Party56%
Republican Party43%

$5.5K Vol.

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?