All markets
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
4%chance
- Yes4.4%
Outcomes
- Yes4%
4.3¢ per share
- No96%
95.7¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4.4¢Spread 3¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9¢ | 40 | $1.16 |
| 2.8¢ | 6.6 | $0.18 |
| 2.6¢ | 39 | $1.01 |
| 2.5¢ | 582.26 | $14.56 |
| 2.4¢ | 381 | $9.14 |
| 2.3¢ | 10 | $0.23 |
| 2.2¢ | 432.15 | $9.51 |
| 2.1¢ | 8,861.81 | $186.10 |
| 1.6¢ | 14.83 | $0.24 |
| 1.5¢ | 637.5 | $9.56 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9¢ | 48.3 | $2.85 |
| 6¢ | 100 | $6.00 |
| 7.8¢ | 200 | $15.60 |
| 7.9¢ | 900 | $71.10 |
| 8.2¢ | 300 | $24.60 |
| 8.4¢ | 1,009.16 | $84.77 |
| 8.8¢ | 5 | $0.44 |
| 10.5¢ | 1,000 | $105.00 |
| 10.7¢ | 311.98 | $33.38 |
| 12.7¢ | 114.54 | $14.55 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.