Politics

$27.4M Vol.2 months left

Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?

240-25910%
260-27910%

$56.4K Vol.weekly

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%chance

$74.4M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$141.3K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$562.0K Vol.2 months left

$44.2M Vol.2 months left

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)59%
Joe Lombardo (R)43%

$474.5K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar68%
Likud33%

$934.9K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

25%chance

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.3M Vol.

Arizona Governor Election Winner

Katie Hobbs (D)93%
Andy Biggs (R)9%

$175.1K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202758%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.2M Vol.annual

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3126%
October 318%

$427.8K Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2442%
<2025%

$566.3K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$214.4K Vol.

Idaho Senate Election Winner

Jim Risch (R)96%
Todd Achilles (I)4%

$172.3K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić67%
Ilija Srdanović23%

$1.4M Vol.

NC-11 House Election Winner

Jamie Ager (D)87%
Jennifer Balkcom (R)9%

$53.7K Vol.

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner

Chris Pappas (D)91%
John E. Sununu (R)11%

$362.0K Vol.

CA-06 House Election Winner

Democratic Party97%
Republican Party<1%

$90.4K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.4M Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei48%
Axel Kicillof30%

$953.6K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3136%
November 3022%

$1.6M Vol.

CA-04 House Election Winner

Democratic Party94%
Republican Party6%

$38.7K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)66%
Jon Husted (R)36%

$1.3M Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)41%

$2.3M Vol.

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$112.2K Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)5%

$333.7K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%chance

$15.0M Vol.2 months left

WA-05 House Election Winner

$83.5K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.7M Vol.14 days left

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202712%

$742.1K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3033%
October 316%

$276.1K Vol.

AL-02 House Election Winner

Rhett Marques (R)71%
Shomari Figures (D)31%

$103.0K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Kentucky?

Massie / Rand92%
Transgender 5+ times80%

$23.4K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

$24.1M Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

OH-07 House Election Winner

Brian Poindexter (D)83%
Max Miller (R)17%

$109.2K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202742%
June 30, 202733%

$2.9M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$27.5K Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$298.1K Vol.2 months left

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an61%
Puma Shen38%

$1.2M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro67%
Lula35%

$111.9K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202797%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$257.1K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$397.6K Vol.2 months left

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$646.4K Vol.

FL-03 House Election Winner

Kat Cammack (R)95%
Seth Harp (D)4%

$57.7K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$272.7K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow76%
Brad Bradford25%

$419.2K Vol.

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?

6-7%38%
5-6%28%

$17.2K Vol.

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$34.3K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.6M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3014%

$655.4K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.9M Vol.

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

10%chance

$43.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

NH-02 House Election Winner

$51.7K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%

$1.4M Vol.

Yokohama Mayoral Election Winner

Atsumi Harasawa97%
Kazuma Nakatani2%

$19.6K Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 1899%
October 2197%

$2.1M Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202741%
Susie Wiles23%

$133.5K Vol.annual

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula64%
Flavio Bolsonaro36%

$100.3K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$415.0K Vol.2 months left

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman53%
Karen Bass47%

$15.4M Vol.

North Carolina Senate Election Winner

Roy Cooper (D)96%
Michael Whatley (R)4%

$231.8K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China76%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%69%
Iotova 10-20%13%

$30.7K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)59%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$904.2K Vol.

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

$93.8K Vol.

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)89%
Zach Lahn (R)13%

$257.5K Vol.

South Carolina Governor Election Winner

$26.7K Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$576.5K Vol.2 months left

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%34%
Below 4.6%28%

$405.1K Vol.

Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?

President66%
Senate33%

$47.3K Vol.

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

$309.8K Vol.2 months left

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together85%
The Democrats8%

$72.0K Vol.

Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

Zoran Janković64%
Luka Mesec24%

$31.0K Vol.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 202764%
December 3113%

$4.3M Vol.

$89.7K Vol.

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

$43.4K Vol.8 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202636%
November 30, 202624%

$759.0K Vol.

NV-04 House Election Winner

$26.6K Vol.

Alabama Governor Election Winner

Tommy Tuberville (R)96%
Doug Jones (D)4%

$47.9K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3133%

$138.4K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$189.9K Vol.2 months left

$855.3K Vol.44 days left

ME-02 House Election Winner

Paul LePage (R)63%
Matthew Dunlap (D)39%

$37.2K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson17%

$10.2M Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
Mike Collins (R)4%

$242.7K Vol.

TN-04 House Election Winner

$133.5K Vol.

VA-01 House Election Winner

Shannon Taylor (D)55%
Rob Wittman (R)47%

$72.4K Vol.

NC-01 House Election Winner

Don Davis (D)71%
Laurie Buckhout (R)30%

$38.7K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen12%

$65.9K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$441.1K Vol.

FL-07 House Election Winner

Ryan Elijah (R)68%
Bale Dalton (D)32%

$34.4K Vol.

New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Su Chiao-hui59%
Lee Shu-chuan40%

$119.1K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

140-15932%
160-17926%

$41.2K Vol.daily

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%54%
Remain 20–40%19%

$39.5K Vol.

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?

>99%chance

$18.6K Vol.1 year left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$75.2K Vol.

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Deb Haaland (D)94%
Gregg Hull (R)6%

$75.0K Vol.

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner

David Crowley (D)81%
Tom Tiffany (R)20%

$724.4K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

23%chance

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Osborn flips Ricketts for Nebraska Senate by November 2?

$451.4K Vol.3 months left

$11.2K Vol.16 days left

Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Mike O'Reilly56%
Nelly Dever43%

$47.5K Vol.

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Talarico 0-3%32%
Paxton 0-3%31%

$38.5K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez42%
Jon Ossoff30%

$82.1K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$805.1K Vol.

Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

28%chance

Minnesota Governor Election Winner

Amy Klobuchar (D)96%
Lisa Demuth (R)4%

$96.4K Vol.

VA-02 House Election Winner

Elaine Luria (D)88%
Jen Kiggans (R)13%

$54.8K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

How many Israeli elections before government formed?

162%
228%

$70.4K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$135.9K Vol.14 days left

Next Romania PM appointed by…?

December 3195%
October 3192%

$67.6K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

37%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Kansas Senate Election: Sedgwick County Winner

Roger Marshall (R)56%
Adam Hamilton (D)45%

$4.7K Vol.

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202713%

$6.0M Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$671.1K Vol.2 months left

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Kelowna Mayoral Election

Tom Dyas72%
Ron Cannan27%

$31.9K Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD93%
UDMR8%

$82.0K Vol.

CZ # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

20-3979%
<2013%

$10.7K Vol.daily

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+98%
960-9992%

$390.5K Vol.daily

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↑ 40%31%
↓ 30%25%

$89.6K Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$74.4K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin83%
Mohammed bin Salman79%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)87%
Michele Tafoya (R)14%

$276.2K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

$510.8K Vol.8 months left

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202734%
December 31, 20266%

$38.6K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Kaitlan Collins90%
J.B. Pritzker83%

$140.9K Vol.monthly

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Goiás

Flavio Bolsonaro98%
Lula2%

$5.2K Vol.

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

October 3196%
December 3195%

$894.2K Vol.

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat96%
PSD3%

$352.3K Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202713%

$698.9K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

66-70%41%
62-66%38%

$22.3K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha20%

$50.5K Vol.

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$561.8K Vol.

North Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory

Cooper 9-12%23%
Cooper 12-15%22%

$21.6K Vol.

Florida Senate Election Winner

Ashley Moody (R)91%
Angie Nixon (D)10%

$232.3K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?

22%chance

$10.0K Vol.44 days left

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S + MP + C + V18%
S + MP18%

$104.9K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3165%
Qatar13%

$167.1K Vol.

AZ-01 House Election Winner

Amish Shah (D)84%
Jay Feely (R)18%

$70.1K Vol.

Talarico Texas Senate odds hit __ by November 2?

↑ 75%36%
↑ 70%33%

$5.3K Vol.

Husted flips Brown for Ohio Senate by November 2?

$159.9K Vol.2 months left

$8.3K Vol.16 days left

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

8%chance

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$779.2K Vol.

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

Pete Fry59%
Ken Sim42%

$285.8K Vol.

Trump approval rating on October 23?

38.5–38.934%
38.0–38.423%

$3.7K Vol.weekly

Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Zac de Vries81%
Rishi Sharma18%

$57.0K Vol.

Richmond Mayoral Election

Rob Howard40%
Kash Heed34%

$42.5K Vol.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Pete Buttigieg27%
Rahm Emanuel26%

$1.2M Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

14%chance

$616.6K Vol.2 months left

Texas Senate Election: Tarrant County Winner

James Talarico (D)95%
Ken Paxton (R)5%

$28.3K Vol.

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)68%
Sam Forstag (D)34%

$92.5K Vol.

NH-01 House Election Winner

$52.4K Vol.

Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

$257.7K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

NY-22 House Election Winner

John Mannion (D)95%
Kailee Buller (R)5%

$33.2K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD89%
PSD + AUR3%

$101.9K Vol.

Zelenskyy # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

100-11941%
80-9934%

$7.1K Vol.daily

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3132%
November 3027%

$419.1K Vol.

New Westminster, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Patrick Johnstone78%
Daniel Fontaine19%

$12.0K Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 36%83%
↑ 40%72%

$12.6K Vol.

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

$173.2K Vol.2 months left

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)64%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$917.1K Vol.

Kentucky Governor Republican Primary Winner (2027)

James Comer61%
Thomas Massie14%

$2.8K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Li Xi5%
Wang Huning5%

$256.1K Vol.

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp91%
Stefan Evers8%

$242.0K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$388.5K Vol.2 days left

Kansas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Hamilton Wins38%
Marshall 0-5%35%

$14.3K Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$440.6K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon38%
Édouard Philippe30%

$18.7K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$309.8K Vol.

Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

21%chance

$23.5K Vol.2 months left

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

94%chance

$35.5K Vol.7 days left

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)77%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 24%

$577.6K Vol.

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic64%
Republican35%

$2.5M Vol.

LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?

Raman 0-4%24%
Bass 0-4%19%

$22.0K Vol.

Lima Mayoral Election Winner

$546.7K Vol.

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Thom Tillis11%
Mike Lee9%

$315.0K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time55%
60+23%

$924.2K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 17>99%
October 2097%

$58.1K Vol.monthly

Charlottetown, PEI Mayoral Election Winner

Philip Brown56%
Daniel Mullen9%

$19.7K Vol.

Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?

$13.8K Vol.14 days left

CT-05 House Election Winner

Jahana Hayes (D)96%
Chris Shea (R)3%

$11.7K Vol.

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Texas72%
Iowa72%

$111.8K Vol.

NV-01 House Election Winner

Dina Titus (D)96%
Carrie Buck (R)4%

$35.1K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%66%
4.0%15%

$7.1M Vol.

TX-11 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 30-35%29%
Republican 25-30%25%

$21.4K Vol.

NV-03 House Election Winner

Susie Lee (D)95%
Martin O'Donnell (R)6%

$11.6K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place

Otzma Yehudit33%
The Democrats31%

$11.5K Vol.

CZ # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

20-3955%
<2027%

$7.1K Vol.daily

Macron out by...?

$49.5K Vol.2 months left

Spain General Election Winner

PP85%
PSOE17%

$115.5K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (Invested)

$37.1K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff34%
Jared Kushner32%

$1.5M Vol.

AZ-02 House Election Winner

Eli Crane (R)76%
Jonathan Nez (D)24%

$17.9K Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Jackson 0-3%25%
Jackson 3-6%22%

$11.5K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Oman7%

$1.8M Vol.

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

205-20929%
Below 19024%

$334.3K Vol.

Texas Senate favorite on November 2?

89%chance

$4.7K Vol.16 days left

FL-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%31%
Republican 5-10%30%

$25.0K Vol.

Next President of the National Rally in 2026?

Jordan Bardella>99%
Jean-Philippe Tanguy<1%

$42.6K Vol.

Florida Governor Election Winner

Byron Donalds (R) 80%
David Jolly (D)21%

$299.0K Vol.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

$186.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3183%
October 3125%

$465.8K Vol.

US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?

March 3123%
December 3111%

$7.0K Vol.

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by...?

December 3189%
October 3111%

$30.9K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$301.1K Vol.

White House # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+96%
180-1993%

$11.3K Vol.daily

Mexico City Congress Election Winner

Morena66%
PVEM11%

$5.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

546%
421%

$12.7K Vol.

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202828%
December 31, 202716%

$718.9K Vol.

Ohio Senate favorite on November 2?

99%chance

$3.3K Vol.16 days left

Surrey Mayoral Election

Brenda Locke95%
Linda Annis1%

$43.5K Vol.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

Andy Beshear88%
Ted Cruz83%

$116.1K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?

200+26%
160-17916%

$1.8K Vol.daily

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Federal District

Flavio Bolsonaro98%
Lula2%

$9.7K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

290K-305K36%
305K-320K23%

$16.7K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Third Term50%
Dad / Daddy50%

$12.8K Vol.weekly

NYC Mayor # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

20-3988%
40-596%

$3.6K Vol.daily

Tocantins Governor Election Winner

Vicentinho Júnior82%
Professora Dorinha16%

$34.7K Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE41%
USA26%

$36.1K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20263%

$119.1K Vol.

KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25-30%24%
Republican 20-25%21%

$30.8K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro95%
Bryson DeChambeau71%

$77.4K Vol.monthly

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

SPD78%
Linke77%

$24.4K Vol.

Delta, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Dylan Kruger54%
Melissa Granum28%

$28.3K Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$504.8K Vol.

IL-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%30%
Democrat 15-20%23%

$14.9K Vol.

Maine Governor Election Winner

$45.9K Vol.

Khamenei # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

<572%
5-914%

$7.5K Vol.daily

FL-26 House Election Winner

$85.4K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3182%
November 3076%

$405.7K Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

463%
516%

$7.6M Vol.

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

15%chance

$175.8K Vol.2 months left

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Cadu wins42%
Allyson 3-6%21%

$11.5K Vol.

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

Florida99%
California98%

$434.8K Vol.

Serbia Election: Student List Vote Share?

40-45%29%
35-40%28%

$25.6K Vol.

Which Senate races will be within 1%?

Kansas28%
Iowa21%

$23.5K Vol.

Senate Three-Way Combo: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska

Reps sweep39%
Dems IA & KS, Ind NE17%

$3.4K Vol.

Florida Senate Election: Turnout

9M+28%
7.75M-8M25%

$17.4K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

John Healey6%
Douglas Alexander6%

$138.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Tally Gotliv14%

$52.1K Vol.

2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?

JD Vance80%
Other10%

$2.7K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Margin of Victory

Turek 0-3%33%
Hinson 0-3%21%

$25.5K Vol.

Nigerian Presidential Election Winner

Bola Tinubu72%
Peter Obi23%

$132.1K Vol.

Amazonas Governor Election Winner

Omar Aziz86%
Professora Maria do Carmo13%

$80.1K Vol.

Next Mayor of eThekwini (Durban)?

Haniff Hoosen49%
Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi26%

$33.3K Vol.

Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner

James Talarico (D)52%
Ken Paxton (R)49%

$9.2K Vol.

TN-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%27%
Republican 20-25%23%

$13.0K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

085%
114%

$3.0K Vol.

Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?

$55.0K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Ursula von der Leyen95%
Friedrich Merz93%

$214.9K Vol.monthly

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$51.4K Vol.

Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?

$240.5K Vol.2 months left

$21.5K Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

100-11919%
200+19%

$22.6K Vol.daily

Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?

Nobody40%
Pete Hegseth28%

$1.3K Vol.

Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

<580%
5-911%

$4.4K Vol.daily

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3128%
October 316%

$6.7M Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$95.5K Vol.

Ukraine election held by...?

4%chance

ID-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 35-40%27%
Republican 30-35%19%

$16.1K Vol.

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

$88.4K Vol.2 months left

Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round)

6-9 points behind29%
0-3 points behind26%

$4.0K Vol.

OR-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%38%
Democrat 15-20%22%

$33.0K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais

Flavio Bolsonaro91%
Lula10%

$16.6K Vol.

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3112%
October 312%

$509.9K Vol.

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

$80.8K Vol.2 months left

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund72%
Sven Schulze3%

$474.0K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

800K-900K46%
900K-1M25%

$8.8K Vol.

Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

71%chance

$19.3K Vol.2 months left

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202764%
January 15, 202747%

$863.0K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

SPD98%
Grüne95%

$25.1K Vol.

Whistler, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Jack Crompton95%
Brandon Smith3%

$14.2K Vol.

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

77%chance

$10.2K Vol.14 days left

Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place

Likud69%
Yashar27%

$24.4K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Yashar59%
The Democrats56%

$62.0K Vol.

Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Craig Hodge94%
Trish Mandewo3%

$20.4K Vol.

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

84%chance

$2.0K Vol.43 days left

Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?

4-532%
6-731%

$13.6K Vol.

NY-22 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 25-30%28%
Democrat 15-20%27%

$17.9K Vol.

Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 10-15%20%
Democrat 15-20%20%

$23.1K Vol.

NJ-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25-30%26%
Republican 20-25%26%

$18.0K Vol.

OH-13 House Election Winner

Emilia Sykes (D)95%
Carey Coleman (R)1%

$43.4K Vol.

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

47%chance

$33.1K Vol.2 months left

NY-15 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 65-70%30%
Democrat 60-65%28%

$13.1K Vol.

FL-27 House Election Winner

$39.3K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?

82%chance

$4.8K Vol.8 days left

Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?

62%chance

$44.5K Vol.8 months left

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3124%
October 314%

$72.3K Vol.

VA-06 House Election Winner

Ben Cline (R)94%
Beth Macy (D)7%

$121.7K Vol.

TX-27 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%27%
Republican 15-20%25%

$16.7K Vol.

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep73%
Reps sweep14%

$62.4K Vol.

Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Gary Sulz86%
Tim Palmer12%

$32.0K Vol.

VA-05 House Election Winner

John McGuire (R)72%
Tom Perriello (D)30%

$128.7K Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

21%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

MN-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 15-20%27%
Democrat 10-15%24%

$10.7K Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$204.0K Vol.

Kansas Governor Election Winner

Ty Masterson (R)76%
Cindy Holscher (D)23%

$65.2K Vol.

NY-01 House Election Winner

Nick LaLota (R)86%
Chris Gallant (D)13%

$52.5K Vol.

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3134%
October 3112%

$54.8K Vol.

NM-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 15-20%22%
Democrat 10-15%22%

$19.6K Vol.

Oklahoma Senate Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25-30%27%
Republican 20-25%23%

$9.8K Vol.

Which party will win the Arizona State Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party71%
Republican Party20%

$10.6K Vol.

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

86%chance

$5.8K Vol.14 days left

NE-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 50-55%21%
Republican 40-45%18%

$24.5K Vol.

MO-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 3%+96%
Republican 0-3%3%

$64.2K Vol.

Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?

$4.4K Vol.2 months left

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202720%
December 31, 20269%

$264.1K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner

Roger Marshall (R)77%
Adam Hamilton (D)22%

$986.0 Vol.

Baja California Sur Congress Election Winner

Morena57%
PAN14%

$4.3K Vol.

Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?

25%chance

$5.4K Vol.16 days left

Prince George, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Simon Yu40%
Kyle Sampson35%

$21.9K Vol.

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

31%chance

$25.0K Vol.2 months left

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$409.0K Vol.2 months left

South Dakota Senate Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-10%28%
Republican 15-20%18%

$22.0K Vol.

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?

November 305%
October 312%

$28.9K Vol.

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

March 31, 202710%
December 31, 20268%

$296.7K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner

Allyson57%
Cadu de Lula41%

$76.1K Vol.

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 20267%

$609.0K Vol.

MS-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Democrat 30-35%32%
Democrat 25-30%28%

$22.7K Vol.

IN-05 House Election Winner

Victoria Spartz (R)81%
J. D. Ford (D)20%

$32.6K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen89%
Édouard Philippe39%

$382.9K Vol.

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

6-7%47%
5-6%39%

$12.1K Vol.

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

December 3142%
November 3025%

$261.0K Vol.

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

24%chance

$20.2K Vol.2 months left

Virginia Senate Election: Turnout

3.25M-3.5M22%
4M+20%

$10.9K Vol.

Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Kansas98%
Washington56%

$330.6K Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?

120-13933%
100-11923%

$891.1 Vol.daily

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3112%
October 314%

$38.7K Vol.

Senate Three-Way Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine

Dems sweep47%
Reps sweep19%

$12.3K Vol.

TX-15 House Election Winner

Bobby Pulido (D)83%
Monica De La Cruz (R)18%

$66.4K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory

Abbott 6-9%20%
Abbott 3-6%20%

$11.2K Vol.

TX-25 House Election Winner

Roger Williams (R)95%
Dione Sims (D)2%

$43.3K Vol.

Russia coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202712%
December 31, 20263%

$149.7K Vol.

Which party will win white women in the midterms?

Democrats75%
Republicans25%

$36.3K Vol.

South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25-30%26%
Republican 15-20%25%

$20.7K Vol.

OH-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 0-3%19%
Democrat 3-6%18%

$19.2K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova89%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

140-15945%
160-17935%

$11.9K Vol.daily

Trump goes to space in 2026?

$57.7K Vol.2 months left

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)94%
Maria Jukic (D)3%

$97.2K Vol.

Collins flips Jackson for Maine Senate by November 2?

41%chance

$4.0K Vol.16 days left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula82%
Flavio Bolsonaro18%

$57.1K Vol.

Michoacán Governor Election Winner

Carlos Torres Piña35%
Grecia Quiroz25%

$61.2K Vol.

NV-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 3-6%30%
Democrat 0-3%16%

$12.5K Vol.

Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?

June 30, 202712%
December 31, 20263%

$11.5K Vol.

North Carolina Senate Election: Turnout

4.3M-4.5M27%
3.9M-4.1M26%

$18.1K Vol.

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

12%chance

$85.5K Vol.2 months left

French election called by...?

$11.7K Vol.2 months left

CA-01 House Election Winner

$46.7K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$751.9K Vol.2 months left

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Sweden snap election called in 2026?

17%chance

$5.7K Vol.2 months left

Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by...?

March 3125%
December 3114%

$11.4K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: Turnout

72-74%38%
70-72%20%

$3.0K Vol.

Democratic Senate odds on October 23?

62-64%35%
64-66%28%

$2.8K Vol.weekly

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

9%chance

Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?