Politics

$27.3M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3134%
November 3020%

$1.5M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

74%chance

$429.9K Vol.18 days left

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)65%
Jon Husted (R)36%

$1.3M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar68%
Likud33%

$902.8K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%
December 3113%

$27.5M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

280-29911%
300-31910%

$192.8K Vol.weekly

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)70%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.8M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%chance

$15.0M Vol.2 months left

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.9M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 1899%
October 2197%

$2.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$437.3K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3133%
November 3027%

$417.7K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$130.8K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu82%
Alexandru Nazare1%

$5.4M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20263%

$29.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$716.5K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.7M Vol.15 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202764%

$8.7M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić66%
Ilija Srdanović19%

$1.3M Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an62%
Puma Shen38%

$1.2M Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei48%
Axel Kicillof30%

$950.5K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

$15.4M Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$204.3K Vol.

FL-18 House Election Winner

$69.2K Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2443%
<2025%

$552.2K Vol.

CA-06 House Election Winner

Democratic Party96%
Republican Party1%

$89.8K Vol.

Next Press Secretary?

Lara Trump20%
Kayleigh McEnany19%

$27.0K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 3111%

$411.1K Vol.

TN-04 House Election Winner

$129.0K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

$24.1M Vol.2 months left

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow72%
Brad Bradford30%

$407.3K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.3M Vol.

Next Press Secretary announced by...?

December 3184%
November 3059%

$22.2K Vol.

AL-02 House Election Winner

Rhett Marques (R)71%
Shomari Figures (D)30%

$102.9K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$272.7K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China73%
No meeting by December 3122%

$1.8M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez15%

$1.9M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%

$1.4M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep74%
Reps sweep14%

$62.3K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$855.2K Vol.45 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.4M Vol.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 202758%
December 3113%

$4.3M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3032%
October 314%

$257.4K Vol.

FL-12 House Election Winner

$81.5K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson18%

$10.2M Vol.

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

28%chance

$24.4K Vol.2 months left

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202736%
Susie Wiles24%

$131.6K Vol.annual

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula65%
Flavio Bolsonaro35%

$100.0K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 17 - October 19, 2026?

65-8934%
40-6430%

$15.4K Vol.daily

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202634%
November 30, 202624%

$754.2K Vol.

NC-01 House Election Winner

Don Davis (D)67%
Laurie Buckhout (R)33%

$34.0K Vol.

GA-09 House Election Winner

Andrew Clyde (R)97%
Caitlyn Gegen (D)3%

$60.1K Vol.

WA-03 House Election Winner

$55.1K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$523.0K Vol.2 months left

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 2898%
October 2998%

$56.1K Vol.monthly

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3066%
October 3138%

$133.4K Vol.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$634.0K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)59%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$902.9K Vol.

GA-10 House Election Winner

Houston Gaines (R)96%
Pam Delancy (D)2%

$67.4K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$652.5K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

39%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

25%chance

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

9%chance

$38.1K Vol.8 months left

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
June 30, 202714%

$734.2K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202752%
Netanyahu - Israel PM27%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)54%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$433.7K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%21%
Below 4.6%11%

$397.8K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2845%
Yoram Cohen12%

$61.2K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202741%
June 30, 202731%

$2.9M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Kentucky?

Massie / Rand88%
Transgender 5+ times81%

$11.4K Vol.

Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Mike O'Reilly73%
Nelly Dever25%

$43.7K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$127.0K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3124%
October 316%

$71.5K Vol.

Will Israel election happen as scheduled?

87%chance

$68.5K Vol.11 days left

PA-14 House Election Winner

$41.9K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3178%
November 3075%

$404.7K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance

$844.1K Vol.2 months left

Senate control favorite on November 2?

98%chance

$17.2K Vol.17 days left

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?

$33.1K Vol.14 days left

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 15-20%7%
Ruas 10-15%6%

$41.9K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

$170.6K Vol.

Montana Senate Election Winner

Kurt Alme (R) 92%
Independent9%

$180.6K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)77%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 24%

$575.1K Vol.

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

9%chance

$39.5K Vol.2 months left

FL-21 House Election Winner

Brian Mast (R)93%
James Martin (D)8%

$27.7K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula64%
Flavio Bolsonaro35%

$84.3K Vol.

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner

Chris Pappas (D)89%
John E. Sununu (R)12%

$338.2K Vol.

CA-01 House Election Winner

$46.1K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$802.1K Vol.

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

$92.8K Vol.

NC-06 House Election Winner

Addison McDowell (R)91%
Cyril Jefferson (D)10%

$60.0K Vol.

Macron out by...?

$47.2K Vol.2 months left

Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?

$510.7K Vol.8 months left

$6.9K Vol.17 days left

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Kristi Noem41%
Susie Wiles30%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

205-20929%
Below 19024%

$334.0K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

7%chance

Zelenskyy # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

100-11969%
120-1392%

$17.2K Vol.daily

Amazonas Governor Election Winner

Omar Aziz86%
Professora Maria do Carmo12%

$78.6K Vol.

VA-01 House Election Winner

Shannon Taylor (D)54%
Rob Wittman (R)47%

$72.4K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

OH-01 House Election Winner

Greg Landsman (D)93%
Eric Conroy (R)7%

$52.2K Vol.

TX-24 House Election Winner

Beth Van Duyne (R)92%
Kevin Burge (D)9%

$70.2K Vol.

ME-02 House Election Winner

Paul LePage (R)63%
Matthew Dunlap (D)39%

$37.2K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner

Allyson57%
Cadu de Lula42%

$75.7K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+98%
960-9992%

$388.3K Vol.daily

Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?

14%chance

$6.2K Vol.17 days left

IL-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%28%
Democrat 15-20%23%

$14.7K Vol.

WA-05 House Election Winner

$68.1K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S + MP19%
S19%

$102.3K Vol.

Osborn flips Ricketts for Nebraska Senate by November 2?

17%chance

$6.0K Vol.17 days left

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD88%
PSD + AUR4%

$99.1K Vol.

NV-04 House Election Winner

$25.9K Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$778.7K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin79%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

CA-05 House Election Winner

$24.0K Vol.

VA-02 House Election Winner

Elaine Luria (D)88%
Jen Kiggans (R)13%

$54.8K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro74%
Lula25%

$100.9K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

23%chance

$206.6K Vol.2 months left

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3128%
October 316%

$6.7M Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD96%
UDMR20%

$78.5K Vol.

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner

David Crowley (D)81%
Tom Tiffany (R)20%

$724.3K Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

99%chance

$670.6K Vol.2 months left

FL-07 House Election Winner

Ryan Elijah (R)68%
Bale Dalton (D)32%

$34.2K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%67%
Iotova 10-20%22%

$24.1K Vol.

Yokohama Mayoral Election Winner

Atsumi Harasawa90%
Kazuma Nakatani6%

$12.3K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson79%
David Eby22%

$169.2K Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202713%

$698.9K Vol.

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$88.3K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+20%
120-13916%

$21.6K Vol.daily

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)5%

$315.9K Vol.

2026 Collin County Judge Election Winner

Chris Hill88%
John R. "Buster" Brown13%

$25.9K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?

24%chance

$5.2K Vol.17 days left

Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 15-20%21%
Democrat 10-15%20%

$22.0K Vol.

Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?

President71%
Senate24%

$45.1K Vol.

Husted flips Brown for Ohio Senate by November 2?

13%chance

$5.1K Vol.17 days left

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3167%
Qatar14%

$165.0K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

160-17927%
140-15924%

$36.8K Vol.daily

IN-02 House Election Winner

Rudy Yakym (R)96%
Jamee Decio (D)4%

$38.9K Vol.

NY-22 House Election Winner

John Mannion (D)95%
Kailee Buller (R)5%

$33.2K Vol.

Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Zac de Vries84%
Rishi Sharma13%

$56.2K Vol.

NE-02 House Election Winner

$65.3K Vol.

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

$5.8K Vol.2 months left

Sinaloa Governor Election Winner

$50.4K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together84%
The Democrats12%

$69.4K Vol.

Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?

31%chance

$4.5K Vol.17 days left

Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

Zoran Janković64%
Luka Mesec20%

$25.6K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
Mike Collins (R)4%

$238.4K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$95.3K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen89%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon43%

$382.3K Vol.

EU dissolves before 2027?

$185.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202734%
December 31, 20266%

$38.4K Vol.

OK-05 House Election Winner

Stephanie Bice (R)88%
Jena Nelson (D)13%

$24.8K Vol.

NY-18 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%28%
Democrat 15-20%24%

$21.5K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Gavin Newsom>99%
Kaitlan Collins91%

$139.2K Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%65%
4.0%14%

$7.1M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

$173.1K Vol.2 months left

CA-40 House Election Winner (Individual)

Ken Calvert45%
Young Kim45%

$16.1K Vol.

Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Craig Hodge98%
Trish Mandewo3%

$20.0K Vol.

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202713%

$6.0M Vol.

Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?

20%chance

$12.3K Vol.15 days left

Collins flips Jackson for Maine Senate by November 2?

33%chance

$3.6K Vol.17 days left

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$51.2K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova89%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

Tocantins Governor Election Winner

Vicentinho Júnior82%
Professora Dorinha14%

$34.5K Vol.

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↓ 30%43%
↑ 40%32%

$85.7K Vol.

Next Premier of Quebec

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon>99%
Bernard Drainville<1%

$421.4K Vol.

Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?

June 30, 202731%
December 31, 20263%

$10.7K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen86%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon9%

$34.1K Vol.

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?

89%chance

$16.2K Vol.1 year left

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez42%
Jon Ossoff35%

$77.7K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

9%chance

$751.1K Vol.2 months left

FL-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%23%
Republican 0-5%16%

$24.5K Vol.

KS-02 House Election Winner

Derek Schmidt (R)86%
Don Coover (D)13%

$20.3K Vol.

Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Gary Sulz69%
Tim Palmer16%

$31.1K Vol.

Kelowna Mayoral Election

Ron Cannan59%
Tom Dyas43%

$27.5K Vol.

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)95%
Doug Chapin (D)2%

$98.2K Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3132%
October 31<1%

$1.1M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff33%
Jared Kushner32%

$1.5M Vol.

CZ # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

20-3969%
<2018%

$8.2K Vol.daily

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

20%chance

$185.0K Vol.2 months left

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$383.9K Vol.2 months left

Idaho Senate Election Winner

Jim Risch (R)96%
Todd Achilles (I)4%

$144.8K Vol.

PA-01 House Election Winner

Brian Fitzpatrick (R)63%
Bob Harvie (D)39%

$39.2K Vol.

Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner

Miloš Vučević24%
Ana Brnabić22%

$85.5K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Michigan Senate favorite on November 2?

90%chance

$2.7K Vol.17 days left

Texas Senate favorite on November 2?

77%chance

$2.7K Vol.17 days left

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 23?

36.0+98%
37.0+97%

$7.1K Vol.weekly

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$406.4K Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (Invested)

$37.1K Vol.

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20262%

$745.3K Vol.

2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?

JD Vance79%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez7%

$2.7K Vol.

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$35.9K Vol.2 months left

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

10%chance

$147.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump approval rating on October 23?

38.5–38.930%
38.0–38.423%

$2.6K Vol.weekly

OR-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%31%
Democrat 15-20%28%

$31.8K Vol.

White House # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+87%
160-17921%

$4.4K Vol.daily

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$279.3K Vol.2 months left

Kansas Governor Election Winner

Ty Masterson (R)76%
Cindy Holscher (D)23%

$65.0K Vol.

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

6-7%45%
5-6%44%

$11.4K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$13.1K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$307.2K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?

≤46 and ≤19229%
47–49 and 193–20725%

$78.5K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase65%
No change31%

$96.9K Vol.annual

Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?

$157.2K Vol.2 months left

$2.7K Vol.2 months left

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$203.8K Vol.

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$558.3K Vol.

MS-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Democrat 30-35%33%
Democrat 25-30%30%

$22.2K Vol.

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3128%
October 317%

$24.8K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%20%
Democrat 0-3%19%

$19.3K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Cadu wins41%
Allyson 3-6%25%

$11.5K Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

160-17948%
140-15942%

$5.1K Vol.daily

Texas Lieutenant Governor Election Winner

Dan Patrick (R)75%
Vikki Goodwin (D)25%

$10.8K Vol.

MI-03 House Election Winner

$57.9K Vol.

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

10%chance

$16.1K Vol.2 months left

2026 Williamson County Judge Election Winner

Heather Jefts69%
Steven Snell30%

$25.5K Vol.

Mexico City Congress Election Winner

Morena66%
PVEM11%

$5.3K Vol.

WI-06 House Election Winner

Glenn Grothman (R)93%
Brad Smith (D)7%

$46.3K Vol.

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Thom Tillis11%
Mike Lee9%

$314.6K Vol.

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic64%
Republican35%

$2.5M Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner

Javier Milei57%
Axel Kicillof21%

$13.3K Vol.

TX-30 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 60-65%24%
Democrat 50-55%23%

$16.1K Vol.

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

4%chance

PA-16 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 5-10%24%
Republican 15-20%24%

$19.7K Vol.

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by...?

December 3188%
October 3111%

$30.9K Vol.

Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

27%chance

$21.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$504.1K Vol.

Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

<582%
5-98%

$4.1K Vol.daily

Next Romania PM appointed by…?

December 3195%
October 3186%

$64.0K Vol.

Richmond Mayoral Election

Rob Howard45%
Kash Heed31%

$40.0K Vol.

AK-AL House Election Winner

Republican Party84%
Bill Hill15%

$61.3K Vol.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Rahm Emanuel23%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%

$1.2M Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%63%
Remain 60–80%24%

$35.7K Vol.

CA-07 House Election Winner (by individual)

Doris Matsui61%
Mai Vang36%

$28.1K Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP85%
PSOE16%

$114.2K Vol.

Talarico Texas Senate odds hit __ by November 2?

↑ 70%34%
↑ 75%13%

$2.0K Vol.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

95%chance

$34.6K Vol.7 days left

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202828%
December 31, 202716%

$718.8K Vol.

TX-11 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%30%
Republican 30-35%29%

$20.5K Vol.

KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25-30%24%
Republican 20-25%21%

$30.5K Vol.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

Andy Beshear88%
Ted Cruz83%

$115.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1633%
8-1023%

$11.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha22%

$48.4K Vol.

MT-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%32%
Republican 3-6%18%

$14.3K Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$569.0K Vol.2 months left

New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Su Chiao-hui52%
Lee Shu-chuan49%

$114.1K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase55%
No change40%

$40.8K Vol.annual

US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?

March 3117%
December 3111%

$5.9K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais

Flavio Bolsonaro91%
Lula10%

$16.5K Vol.

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

Pete Fry58%
Ken Sim41%

$283.0K Vol.

Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...?

March 317%
December 314%

$45.3K Vol.

GA-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Republican 6-9%25%
Republican 3-6%22%

$21.0K Vol.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$560.1K Vol.

NY-17 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 6-9%35%
Democrat 3-6%27%

$16.4K Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3056%
October 3134%

$14.4K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Muscle / Muscular>99%
Dad / Daddy54%

$12.7K Vol.weekly

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

42%chance

$33.1K Vol.2 months left

MO-06 House Election Winner

Chris Stigall (R)95%
Josh Smead (D)6%

$59.7K Vol.

How many Israeli elections before government formed?

161%
227%

$65.5K Vol.

Closest Senate Race?

Iowa16%
Texas16%

$31.1K Vol.

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Paxton 0-3%31%
Talarico 0-3%31%

$33.5K Vol.

SAVE Act becomes law by...?

$260.6K Vol.2 months left

South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout

300K-325K25%
375K-400K21%

$15.0K Vol.

Serbia Election: Student List Vote Share?

40-45%30%
35-40%28%

$25.1K Vol.

TN-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 15-20%28%
Republican 10-15%23%

$12.0K Vol.

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3112%
October 313%

$509.8K Vol.

NJ-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%26%
Republican 30-35%21%

$17.0K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)64%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$914.7K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$175.8K Vol.

NC-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+25%
Republican 6-9%19%

$22.9K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro95%
Delcy Rodriguez55%

$76.3K Vol.monthly

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

12%chance

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

$157.2K Vol.2 months left

Surrey Mayoral Election

Brenda Locke94%
Linda Annis4%

$41.8K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place

Likud69%
Yashar30%

$23.3K Vol.

Khamenei # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

<570%
5-923%

$7.4K Vol.daily

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

Green Party77%
New Zealand First Party18%

$19.5K Vol.

HI-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 50-55%31%
Democrat 45-50%26%

$24.8K Vol.

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)68%
Sam Forstag (D)33%

$90.9K Vol.

Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner

Carolyn Parrish55%
Bonnie Crombie37%

$22.2K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

085%
114%

$3.0K Vol.

MI-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%25%
Democrat 0-3%19%

$10.9K Vol.

Ohio Senate favorite on November 2?

87%chance

$1.5K Vol.17 days left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

No Next Minister by Feb 2831%
Gadi Eizenkot16%

$70.5K Vol.

North Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory

Cooper 6-9%23%
Cooper 9-12%23%

$17.9K Vol.

New Westminster, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Patrick Johnstone76%
Daniel Fontaine22%

$10.6K Vol.

Georgia Senate and Governor Combo

Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate51%
Dems sweep49%

$15.6K Vol.

NY-23 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%28%
Republican 15-20%27%

$14.9K Vol.

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

December 3138%
November 3024%

$260.4K Vol.

Which party will win the Minnesota State Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party88%
Republican Party13%

$8.0K Vol.

PA-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 40-45%24%
Democrat 35-40%22%

$17.5K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$299.6K Vol.

CT-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 30-35%28%
Democrat 25-30%24%

$17.9K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20266%

$118.7K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?

13%chance

$7.5K Vol.45 days left

Wyoming Governor Election Margin of Victory

Republican 45-50%29%
Republican 40-45%26%

$41.6K Vol.

PA-14 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%26%
Republican 25-30%20%

$18.3K Vol.

Democratic Senate odds on October 23?

62-64%30%
64-66%28%

$2.1K Vol.weekly

Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?

$21.5K Vol.2 months left

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

85%chance

$1.9K Vol.44 days left

FL-26 House Election Winner

$85.0K Vol.

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Texas78%
Iowa74%

$109.7K Vol.

Lima Mayoral Election Winner

$544.2K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory

United Serbia 10%+21%
United Serbia 5-10%16%

$13.9K Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

140-15941%
160-17938%

$11.3K Vol.daily

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

$88.4K Vol.2 months left

South Dakota Senate Election Winner

Mike Rounds (R)92%
Brian Bengs (I)7%

$62.3K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

74%chance

$112.5K Vol.2 years left

Next President of Germany?

Ilse Aigner49%
Karin Prien18%

$5.2K Vol.

Delta, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Dylan Kruger53%
George Harvie27%

$27.3K Vol.

Maine Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

700K-750K22%
650K-700K19%

$18.6K Vol.

OH-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%29%
Republican 15-20%28%

$14.0K Vol.

New Jersey Senate Election Winner

Cory Booker (D)97%
Justin Murphy (R)3%

$23.1K Vol.

Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

$24.7K Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.5%37%
4.25%25%

$24.4K Vol.

Oregon Governor Election Winner

Tina Kotek (D)76%
Christine Drazan (R)24%

$94.0K Vol.

Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout

900K-975K48%
825K-900K28%

$39.8K Vol.

Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?

47%chance

$4.3K Vol.44 days left

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3184%
October 3128%

$464.6K Vol.

Which party will win the Arizona State Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party69%
Republican Party21%

$9.6K Vol.

Next President of the National Rally in 2026?

$40.6K Vol.

AR-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 15-20%32%
Republican 20-25%27%

$17.5K Vol.

AR-03 House Election Winner

Steve Womack (R)95%
Robb Ryerse (D)4%

$32.5K Vol.

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

December 3176%
October 31<1%

$140.7K Vol.

Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by...?

March 3126%
December 3113%

$11.2K Vol.

WI-01 House Election Winner

Bryan Steil (R)63%
Mitchell Berman (D)37%

$18.4K Vol.

NY-22 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 25-30%30%
Democrat 20-25%30%

$17.9K Vol.

Tocantins Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Vicentinho <4%41%
Vicentinho 4%+32%

$4.9K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time61%
60+19%

$921.9K Vol.

MO-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 15-20%23%
Republican 20-25%18%

$18.2K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

<16%48%
18-20%39%

$6.1K Vol.

UT-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%25%
Republican 15-20%24%

$23.7K Vol.

FL-27 House Election Winner

$39.2K Vol.

AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 40-45%27%
Republican 35-40%26%

$25.6K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

86%chance

$26.4K Vol.2 months left

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

$184.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3112%
October 314%

$38.5K Vol.

Cornell President out by October 31?

$288.8K Vol.2 months left

$10.6K Vol.15 days left

Blue wave in 2026?

84%chance

$84.1K Vol.2 months left

New York Governor Election: Nassau County Winner

Bruce Blakeman (R)62%
Kathy Hochul (D)32%

$28.6K Vol.

Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Kansas98%
Utah60%

$330.5K Vol.

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$185.2K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan51%
Rafael Grossi19%

$226.3K Vol.

FL-19 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%33%
Republican 15-20%22%

$15.9K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Margin of Victory

Turek 0-3%33%
Hinson 0-3%20%

$24.4K Vol.

GA-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Democrat 20-25%39%
Democrat 15-20%16%

$13.9K Vol.

IEA asks Germany to release oil stocks by...?

December 3138%
October 3121%

$9.1K Vol.

Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?

40-45%38%
45-50%28%

$19.9K Vol.

Sweden snap election called in 2026?

18%chance

$5.5K Vol.2 months left

IN-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%27%
Republican 25-30%18%

$15.5K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

8%chance

Will any country leave NATO by...?

4%chance

$408.0K Vol.2 months left

TX-20 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 40-45%25%
Democrat 45-50%24%

$14.0K Vol.

Next Mayor of eThekwini (Durban)?

Haniff Hoosen53%
Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi20%

$32.8K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202728%
December 31, 20269%

$263.7K Vol.

PA-11 House Election Winner

Lloyd Smucker (R)95%
Nancy Mannion (D)5%

$57.4K Vol.

FL-15 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%32%
Republican 5-10%28%

$12.9K Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%95%
↓ 35%74%

$9.9K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Andrey Gyurov92%
Kostadin Kostadinov4%

$8.4K Vol.

TX-06 House Election Winner

Jake Ellzey (R)95%
Danny Minton (D)3%

$88.1K Vol.

MI-04 House Election Winner

Bill Huizenga (R)50%
Sean McCann (D)49%

$15.9K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

$8.0K Vol.15 days left

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$243.3K Vol.

British Columbia General Election Winner

Conservative79%
NDP22%

$32.9K Vol.

Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

$254.7K Vol.

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

12%chance

$85.4K Vol.2 months left

NJ-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 25-30%31%
Democrat 20-25%22%

$16.2K Vol.

Next Mayor of Johannesburg?

Helen Zille46%
David Makhura25%

$127.0K Vol.

TX-27 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%32%
Republican 15-20%24%

$15.9K Vol.

Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round)

3-6 points behind28%
6-9 points behind23%

$3.4K Vol.

IN-05 House Election Winner

Victoria Spartz (R)81%
J. D. Ford (D)20%

$32.6K Vol.

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?

6-7%42%
7-8%39%

$5.3K Vol.

NY-15 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 60-65%30%
Democrat 65-70%29%

$12.8K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

7%chance

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Michoacán Congress Election Winner

Morena45%
PAN21%

$6.0K Vol.

Taoyuan Mayor Election Winner

Chang San-cheng90%
Huang Shih-chieh10%

$19.2K Vol.

NY-20 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 25-30%27%
Democrat 30-35%24%

$19.4K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout

78-80%59%
76-78%20%

$16.1K Vol.

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

March 31, 202714%
December 31, 20268%

$296.6K Vol.

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3186%
October 15<1%

$12.3K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3163%
October 2020%

$6.9K Vol.

SD-AL House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%31%
Republican 15-20%23%

$11.0K Vol.

TX-25 House Election Winner

Roger Williams (R)95%
Dione Sims (D)2%

$43.2K Vol.

NZ Election: National Party # of seats?

35-3934%
40-4432%

$23.9K Vol.

French election called by...?

$11.7K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?

<2.5%59%
3.25-4%19%

$7.2K Vol.

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3183%
October 3131%

$9.0K Vol.

Martin Mayoral Election Winner

Michal Uherčík44%
Ján Danko42%

$18.9K Vol.

UT-02 House Election Winner

Blake Moore (R)95%
Peter Crosby (D)5%

$31.9K Vol.

Chihuahua Congress Election Winner

Morena30%
PAN23%

$6.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula80%
Flavio Bolsonaro21%

$56.4K Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$272.7K Vol.

Tlaxcala Congress Election Winner

Morena67%
PT9%

$5.5K Vol.

Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory

Moody 6-9%23%
Moody 3-6%18%

$24.1K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

1%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

NC-07 House Election Winner

David Rouzer (R)85%
Kimberly Hardy (D)14%

$30.8K Vol.

Baja California Sur Congress Election Winner

Morena53%
PAN17%

$4.1K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$206.5K Vol.2 months left

$385.9K Vol.3 days left

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)73%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$438.3K Vol.

UT-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%27%
Republican 15-20%19%

$14.6K Vol.

OH-10 House Election Winner

$51.3K Vol.

Senate Three-Way Combo: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska

Reps sweep43%
Dems IA & KS, Ind NE18%

$1.9K Vol.

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund72%
Sven Schulze3%

$473.5K Vol.

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 20266%

$608.0K Vol.

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

21%chance

Prince George, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Simon Yu41%
Kyle Sampson39%

$21.0K Vol.

Nevada Governor Election: Clark County Winner

Aaron Ford (D)84%
Joe Lombardo (R)15%

$6.6K Vol.

New Hampshire Senate and Governor Combo

Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate83%
Reps sweep11%

$10.3K Vol.

AL-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 55-60%33%
Republican 60-65%31%

$24.0K Vol.

MA-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 30-35%28%
Democrat 35-40%26%

$21.1K Vol.

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

$4.9K Vol.15 days left

Serbia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

$27.6K Vol.

NYC Mayor # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

20-3992%
40-599%

$9.1K Vol.daily

Chiapas Congress Election Winner

Morena59%
PVEM7%

$6.8K Vol.

KY-03 House Election Winner

$48.4K Vol.

Rogers flips El-Sayed for Michigan Senate by November 2?

8%chance

$733.4 Vol.17 days left

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Egypt11%
Yemen9%

$80.8K Vol.

Which Senate races will be within 1%?

Kansas29%
Texas26%

$22.5K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election: Mahoning County Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)66%
Jon Husted (R)34%

$8.3K Vol.

NJ-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 25-30%35%
Democrat 20-25%14%

$17.4K Vol.

IA-02 House Election Winner

Lindsay James (D)61%
Joe Mitchell (R)41%

$31.9K Vol.

NV-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 3-6%32%
Democrat 0-3%17%

$12.4K Vol.

Vermont Governor Election Winner

Phil Scott (R)76%
Amanda Janoo (D)25%

$238.8K Vol.

MA-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 30-35%28%
Democrat 35-40%22%

$17.5K Vol.

FL-17 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%42%
Republican 15-20%30%

$17.0K Vol.

Wyoming Senate Election: Turnout

190K-210K46%
170K-190K22%

$9.9K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?

350%
226%

$25.2K Vol.

Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee

Axel Kicillof50%
Sergio Massa26%

$1.8K Vol.

NC-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6-9%20%
Republican 0-3%19%

$15.1K Vol.

SC-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6-9%18%
Republican 0-3%18%

$17.0K Vol.

FL-14 House Election Winner

Kathy Castor (D)70%
Mike Beltran (R)31%

$69.0K Vol.

What will Kevin Warsh say during October Press Conference?

Good Day94%
Good Question82%

$1.9K Vol.monthly

Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

One Nation61%
Greens23%

$26.4K Vol.

Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

December 3156%
November 3028%

$6.5K Vol.monthly

Trump on $250 bill this year?

$39.1K Vol.2 months left

Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?

Samuel Alito26%
Howard Lutnick25%

$657.1 Vol.

WI-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 9-12%21%
Republican 12-15%18%

$21.0K Vol.

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

Florida99%
California98%

$433.4K Vol.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

25%chance

$3.9M Vol.18 days left

NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?

35-3943%
30-3429%

$26.0K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

62-66%38%
66-70%31%

$18.6K Vol.

Keelung Mayor Election Winner

Hsieh Kuo-liang74%
Tung Tzu-wei25%

$9.7K Vol.

Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

December 3188%
October 3145%

$2.4K Vol.monthly

Texas Senate and Governor Combo

Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate42%
Reps sweep37%

$18.8K Vol.

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?