Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
- December 31, 202828%
- December 31, 202713%
$6.0M Vol.

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Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

300-31932%
320-33931%

$2.6M Vol.weekly

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.7M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election

$182.0M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.5M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1599%
October 1698%

$13.1M Vol.monthly

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu28%

$46.5M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.4M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3159%
December 3138%

$40.2M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.7M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.9M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$417.3K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.3M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

300-31917%
320-33914%

$468.1K Vol.weekly

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu92%
Ilie Bolojan1%

$5.3M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance48%
Marco Rubio14%

$711.5M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.6M Vol.

$214.2K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

8%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Nick Stewart40%
Abbas Araghchi37%

$1.5M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.7M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 31<1%

$73.5M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3016%

$637.2K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3147%
November 3032%

$1.4M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro68%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)53%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$420.0K Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an64%
Puma Shen36%

$1.1M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić69%
Ilija Srdanović21%

$1.3M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson17%

$10.1M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

260-27913%
240-25912%

$84.5K Vol.weekly

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$200.1K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar60%
Likud40%

$701.9K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$241.5K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$815.9K Vol.46 days left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202746%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez17%

$1.9M Vol.

NY-23 House Election Winner

Nick Langworthy (R)97%
Aaron Gies (D)2%

$88.1K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland13%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together82%
The Democrats8%

$49.8K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow72%
Brad Bradford28%

$379.8K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$250.8K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202638%
November 30, 202627%

$732.2K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

65-8933%
40-6428%

$43.9K Vol.daily

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

76%chance

$262.8K Vol.19 days left

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)96%
Doug Chapin (D)3%

$94.2K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

$497.8K Vol.8 months left

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD80%
PSD + UDMR5%

$89.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2442%
25-2926%

$522.2K Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

39%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$234.5K Vol.

PA-16 House Election Winner

Mike Kelly (R)96%
Justin Wagner (D)4%

$73.7K Vol.

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)96%
Maria Jukic (D)2%

$95.8K Vol.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

95%chance

$29.7K Vol.9 days left

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$785.3K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$843.7K Vol.16 days left

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD92%
UDMR18%

$70.1K Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$268.3K Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$419.6K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%61%
≥ 4.5%20%

$7.1M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen91%
Édouard Philippe43%

$368.5K Vol.

MD-01 House Election Winner

Andy Harris (R)87%
Dan Schwartz (D)14%

$88.0K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3040%
October 3112%

$224.9K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3133%
November 3031%

$342.3K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen87%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon7%

$26.0K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$288.2K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202750%
June 30, 202735%

$2.9M Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%chance

$834.6K Vol.2 months left

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman54%
Karen Bass46%

$15.3M Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%18%
Below 4.6%12%

$364.5K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$130.9K Vol.

NE-02 House Election Winner

$60.0K Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei54%
Axel Kicillof33%

$851.2K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+96%
960-9993%

$380.0K Vol.daily

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202739%

$2.0M Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)78%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$559.8K Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202712%

$691.1K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

$152.6K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3127%
October 319%

$363.8K Vol.

Next Romania PM appointed by…?

December 3196%
October 3189%

$61.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro74%
Lula28%

$63.4K Vol.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$619.3K Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%56%
Remain 60–80%27%

$32.7K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon38%
Édouard Philippe30%

$15.4K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.6M Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$58.9K Vol.17 hours left

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund78%
Sven Schulze3%

$468.4K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3135%
October 317%

$6.7M Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$403.4K Vol.2 months left

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby20%

$161.6K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Jon Ossoff46%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez39%

$71.2K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov14%

$1.2M Vol.

UT-02 House Election Winner

Blake Moore (R)95%
Peter Crosby (D)5%

$31.0K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula83%
Flavio Bolsonaro16%

$50.3K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula68%
Flavio Bolsonaro27%

$70.7K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$60.7K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3123%
October 317%

$30.2K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

18%chance

$179.7K Vol.2 months left

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3194%
October 3188%

$889.0K Vol.

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)95%
Colby Watson (D)4%

$57.5K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

22%chance

$469.5K Vol.2 months left

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

25%chance

$3.9M Vol.19 days left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3051%
October 3137%

$114.2K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

12%chance

$170.1K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$110.9K Vol.16 days left

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay87%
Pee-wee / Peewee83%

$6.3K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$89.9K Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)5%

$309.2K Vol.

NYC Mayor # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

20-3995%
40-595%

$7.1K Vol.daily

MI-05 House Election Winner

$37.8K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

HI-01 House Election Winner

Ed Case (D)96%
Adriel Lam (R)3%

$53.1K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

3%chance

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

WI-05 House Election Winner

$98.9K Vol.

Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Zac de Vries84%
Rishi Sharma16%

$49.8K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202721%
December 31, 20268%

$262.7K Vol.

What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 14)

49%chance

$498.1 Vol.Ended

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula59%
Flavio Bolsonaro42%

$74.7K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+25%
120-13919%

$11.1K Vol.daily

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan21%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$501.2K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China75%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Khamenei # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

<598%
5-92%

$17.8K Vol.daily

Spain General Election Winner

PP85%
PSOE15%

$108.0K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$299.5K Vol.

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

10%chance

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

CZ # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

20-3998%
40-592%

$9.1K Vol.daily

Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

120-13939%
140-15925%

$9.9K Vol.daily

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)91%
Zach Lahn (R)10%

$244.6K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.0+>99%

$17.6K Vol.weekly

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202716%

$716.2K Vol.

Which party will win white women in the midterms?

Democrats75%
Republicans20%

$35.2K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)57%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$889.0K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$97.9K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Yashar55%
The Democrats54%

$59.7K Vol.

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp84%
Stefan Evers13%

$238.7K Vol.

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic64%
Republican35%

$2.5M Vol.

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Thom Tillis11%
Mike Lee9%

$312.4K Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

7%chance

$2.1M Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?

↓ 7%30%
↑ 12%16%

$185.6K Vol.

FL-28 House Election Winner

Carlos Giménez (R)95%
Phil Ehr (D)5%

$65.1K Vol.

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

28%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+28%
180-19924%

$30.3K Vol.daily

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

12%chance

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 20%+13%
Ruas 5-10%13%

$31.4K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Mardi Gras60%
Nobel54%

$10.9K Vol.weekly

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$553.0K Vol.

CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)

Aisha Wahab87%
Melissa Hernandez6%

$30.4K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat96%
PSD3%

$348.0K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$49.8K Vol.

TX-06 House Election Winner

Jake Ellzey (R)96%
Danny Minton (D)2%

$87.1K Vol.

MN-02 House Election Winner

Matt Little (D)94%
Eric Pratt (R)6%

$63.3K Vol.

MI-12 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 45-50%31%
Democrat 55-60%28%

$17.7K Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

28%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%18%
4.75%15%

$19.5K Vol.

NC-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6-9%26%
Republican 3-6%21%

$11.2K Vol.

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$183.1K Vol.

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

Pete Fry67%
Ken Sim32%

$271.2K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place

Yisrael Beiteinu36%
The Democrats31%

$3.4K Vol.

OR-02 House Election Winner

Cliff Bentz (R)95%
Chris Beck (D)5%

$20.5K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

HI-02 House Election Winner

Jill Tokuda (D)96%
Brenton Awa (R)4%

$81.0K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3182%
November 3075%

$390.9K Vol.

NY-11 House Election Winner

$38.5K Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%89%
↑ 39%70%

$3.3K Vol.

NJ-07 House Election Winner

$47.6K Vol.

White House # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?

200+>99%
180-199<1%

$13.6K Vol.daily

PA-01 House Election Winner

Brian Fitzpatrick (R)63%
Bob Harvie (D)39%

$36.0K Vol.

NY-14 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 45-50%30%
Democrat 40-45%30%

$15.4K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Andrey Gyurov88%
Natalia Kiselova9%

$3.1K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Kostadin Kostadinov87%
Boyko Borissov6%

$3.2K Vol.

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

March 31, 202717%
December 31, 20267%

$295.2K Vol.

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

7%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Netanyahu out by...?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 14)