Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
- December 31, 202828%
- December 31, 202713%
$6.0M Vol.

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Brazil Presidential Election

$182.6M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

320-33931%
340-35930%

$2.8M Vol.weekly

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.8M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.6M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu28%

$46.6M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1698%

$13.1M Vol.monthly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen46%
Édouard Philippe20%

$151.1M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3160%
December 3138%

$40.2M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.7M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio14%

$711.6M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$448.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.3M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

340-35913%
320-33912%

$511.2K Vol.weekly

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.4M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar61%
Likud39%

$789.5K Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.6M Vol.

$216.7K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

8%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi37%
Steve Witkoff35%

$1.5M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 31<1%

$73.5M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)64%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.7M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3016%

$637.2K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro68%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)52%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$421.0K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3146%
November 3032%

$1.4M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1898%

$1.9M Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an65%
Puma Shen36%

$1.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson18%

$10.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$203.7K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić69%
Ilija Srdanović21%

$1.3M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

260-27913%
240-25912%

$86.4K Vol.weekly

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$241.6K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$815.9K Vol.46 days left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202746%
Netanyahu - Israel PM29%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez17%

$1.9M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

NY-23 House Election Winner

Nick Langworthy (R)97%
Aaron Gies (D)2%

$88.1K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$442.0K Vol.Ended

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together77%
The Democrats8%

$49.8K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow72%
Brad Bradford28%

$379.8K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202638%
November 30, 202625%

$733.2K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$250.8K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

65-8934%
40-6428%

$44.4K Vol.daily

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)96%
Doug Chapin (D)3%

$94.2K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$263.2K Vol.19 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

$497.8K Vol.8 months left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2442%
25-2926%

$522.2K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

39%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$234.5K Vol.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

95%chance

$30.2K Vol.9 days left

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)96%
Maria Jukic (D)2%

$95.9K Vol.

PA-16 House Election Winner

Mike Kelly (R)96%
Justin Wagner (D)4%

$73.7K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$843.7K Vol.16 days left

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$785.4K Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD92%
UDMR18%

$70.1K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD80%
PSD + UDMR7%

$89.2K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3134%
November 3031%

$345.1K Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$268.4K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%61%
≥ 4.5%18%

$7.1M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen91%
Édouard Philippe43%

$368.7K Vol.

MD-01 House Election Winner

Andy Harris (R)87%
Dan Schwartz (D)14%

$88.0K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3041%
October 3112%

$225.4K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen87%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon7%

$26.0K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$288.2K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%chance

$834.6K Vol.2 months left

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202712%

$692.1K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%18%
Below 4.6%11%

$364.6K Vol.

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman54%
Karen Bass46%

$15.3M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

NE-02 House Election Winner

$60.0K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$131.0K Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei54%
Axel Kicillof33%

$851.2K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202739%

$2.0M Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)78%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$559.8K Vol.

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep71%
Reps sweep21%

$42.5K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

$152.6K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+95%
960-9993%

$380.4K Vol.daily

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$619.4K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3127%
October 318%

$364.2K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3121%
October 317%

$32.3K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro74%
Lula28%

$63.4K Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%56%
Remain 60–80%27%

$32.7K Vol.

Next Romania PM appointed by…?

December 3195%
October 3189%

$61.6K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202750%
June 30, 202736%

$2.9M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon38%
Édouard Philippe30%

$15.4K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$58.9K Vol.13 hours left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula68%
Flavio Bolsonaro27%

$71.7K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3135%
October 317%

$6.7M Vol.

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund78%
Sven Schulze3%

$468.4K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov14%

$1.2M Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$403.4K Vol.2 months left

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

14%chance

$174.1K Vol.2 months left

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby20%

$161.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula83%
Flavio Bolsonaro16%

$50.5K Vol.

UT-02 House Election Winner

Blake Moore (R)95%
Peter Crosby (D)5%

$31.0K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$60.7K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

18%chance

$179.7K Vol.2 months left

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)95%
Colby Watson (D)4%

$57.5K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

22%chance

$469.5K Vol.2 months left

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

25%chance

$3.9M Vol.19 days left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3051%
October 3137%

$114.2K Vol.

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3194%
October 3188%

$889.0K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay88%
Pee-wee / Peewee83%

$6.5K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Jon Ossoff46%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez39%

$71.2K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$89.9K Vol.

MI-05 House Election Winner

$37.8K Vol.

NYC Mayor # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

20-3995%
40-595%

$7.1K Vol.daily

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

7%chance

$302.9K Vol.2 months left

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)5%

$309.2K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

3%chance

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China76%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

WI-05 House Election Winner

$98.9K Vol.

Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Zac de Vries83%
Rishi Sharma16%

$49.8K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20268%

$262.7K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP85%
PSOE16%

$108.3K Vol.

What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 14)

49%chance

$498.1 Vol.Ended

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.6M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula59%
Flavio Bolsonaro42%

$74.7K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+24%
120-13919%

$11.2K Vol.daily

Khamenei # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

<598%
5-92%

$17.8K Vol.daily

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

10%chance

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

120-13939%
140-15925%

$9.9K Vol.daily

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)91%
Zach Lahn (R)10%

$244.6K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.2+>99%

$17.6K Vol.weekly

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202716%

$716.2K Vol.

Which party will win white women in the midterms?

Democrats75%
Republicans20%

$35.2K Vol.

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp84%
Stefan Evers14%

$238.7K Vol.

CZ # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

20-3998%
40-592%

$9.1K Vol.daily

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic64%
Republican35%

$2.5M Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)57%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$889.1K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$111.1K Vol.16 days left

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Thom Tillis11%
Mike Lee9%

$312.4K Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

7%chance

$2.1M Vol.2 months left

Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?

↓ 7%33%
↑ 12%16%

$185.6K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$300.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$97.9K Vol.

FL-28 House Election Winner

Carlos Giménez (R)95%
Phil Ehr (D)5%

$65.1K Vol.

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

28%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

12%chance

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 20%+13%
Ruas 5-10%13%

$31.4K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+33%
180-19924%

$30.3K Vol.daily

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Mardi Gras60%
Nobel54%

$10.9K Vol.weekly

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$419.6K Vol.

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$553.1K Vol.

CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)

Aisha Wahab87%
Melissa Hernandez8%

$30.5K Vol.

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat96%
PSD3%

$348.1K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3162%
Qatar18%

$159.2K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

The Democrats54%
Yisrael Beiteinu54%

$59.7K Vol.

TX-06 House Election Winner

Jake Ellzey (R)96%
Danny Minton (D)2%

$87.1K Vol.

MN-02 House Election Winner

Matt Little (D)94%
Eric Pratt (R)6%

$63.3K Vol.

MI-12 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 45-50%30%
Democrat 55-60%27%

$17.7K Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

28%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Wisconsin Governor Election Margin of Victory

Crowley 3-6%21%
Crowley 6-9%19%

$22.0K Vol.

Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

62%chance

$4.2K Vol.12 days left

Serbia Election: Student List Vote Share?

35-40%28%
40-45%27%

$22.7K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$49.8K Vol.

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%17%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Deb Haaland (D)93%
Gregg Hull (R)8%

$69.1K Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$192.9K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3130%
October 314%

$53.2K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$63.7K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

160-17942%
180-19938%

$51.6K Vol.daily

French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Édouard Philippe39%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon37%

$13.0K Vol.

CO-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%19%
Democrat 0-3%17%

$26.3K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)63%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$906.8K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%54%
Iotova 10-20%30%

$16.7K Vol.

Closest Senate Race?

Iowa16%
Texas15%

$28.8K Vol.

New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Su Chiao-hui51%
Lee Shu-chuan48%

$110.4K Vol.

New York Attorney General Election Winner

$12.7K Vol.

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↑ 40%60%
↓ 30%43%

$76.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

<2.75%53%
2.75-3.25%21%

$5.8K Vol.

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 3112%
October 312%

$10.6K Vol.

NY-13 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 65-70%35%
Democrat 70-75%26%

$28.9K Vol.

Wyoming Governor Election Margin of Victory

Republican 30-35%27%
Republican 40-45%20%

$33.3K Vol.

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$31.3K Vol.2 months left

WV-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 30-35%26%
Republican 45%+19%

$13.5K Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3121%
October 312%

$1.8M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2832%
Tally Gotliv14%

$45.8K Vol.

LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?

Raman 0-4%24%
Raman 4-8%21%

$18.5K Vol.

FL-19 House Election Winner

Jim Schwartzel (R)95%
Victor Arias (D)5%

$31.3K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

1%chance

$23.4K Vol.16 days left

PA-11 House Election Winner

Lloyd Smucker (R)95%
Nancy Mannion (D)4%

$55.1K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$174.0K Vol.

PA-16 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 15-20%31%
Republican 10-15%29%

$16.5K Vol.

El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place

PCN47%
ARENA26%

$10.0K Vol.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 202744%
December 3114%

$4.3M Vol.

TX-17 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%31%
Republican 15-20%23%

$10.7K Vol.

Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%25%
Democrat 25-30%23%

$15.7K Vol.

MI-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%37%
Republican 15-20%25%

$24.9K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

12%chance

$225.3K Vol.2 months left

OH-11 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 60-65%35%
Democrat 65-70%23%

$12.3K Vol.

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Netanyahu out by...?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 14)