Politics

$2.7M Vol.16 days left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

300-31916%
340-35914%

$550.0K Vol.weekly

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$360.4K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202724%
December 3113%

$27.4M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 31<1%

$73.5M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.8M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.6M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%

$1.4M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3128%
October 3110%

$266.0K Vol.

$5.3M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1898%

$2.0M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.3M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson18%

$10.2M Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$171.8K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.7M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

65-8938%
90-11431%

$74.8K Vol.daily

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3145%
November 3031%

$1.4M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

260-27912%
240-25911%

$105.6K Vol.weekly

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$278.8K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$640.7K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202748%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an63%
Puma Shen38%

$1.1M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$198.7K Vol.2 months left

$830.8K Vol.46 days left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro76%
Lula24%

$92.7K Vol.

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman56%
Karen Bass45%

$15.3M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi36%
Steve Witkoff35%

$1.5M Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)30%

$1.7M Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

21%chance

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3115%
November 3011%

$17.0M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo81%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.9M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202624%

$735.0K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$252.2K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić70%
Ilija Srdanović20%

$1.3M Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen89%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon42%

$377.8K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$298.2K Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei52%
Axel Kicillof33%

$865.9K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay90%
Pee-wee / Peewee82%

$18.8K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3031%
October 319%

$235.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$115.4K Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$278.3K Vol.19 days left

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%28%
Below 4.6%11%

$371.6K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

$452.5K Vol.Ended

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3122%
October 319%

$380.0K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$834.7K Vol.2 months left

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$434.6K Vol.

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)96%
Maria Jukic (D)2%

$96.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$66.0K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3131%
November 3026%

$351.3K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together70%
The Democrats20%

$61.8K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

CA-23 House Election Winner

$101.7K Vol.

GA-11 House Election Winner

John Cowan (R)96%
Chris Harden (D)3%

$88.1K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3121%

$1.8M Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance

NE-02 House Election Winner

$60.5K Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$271.7K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202712%

$693.3K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula69%
Flavio Bolsonaro32%

$84.7K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3124%
October 316%

$6.7M Vol.

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep69%
Reps sweep18%

$42.8K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$794.9K Vol.

MD-01 House Election Winner

Andy Harris (R)89%
Dan Schwartz (D)13%

$88.2K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby21%

$163.5K Vol.

AR-03 House Election Winner

Steve Womack (R)96%
Robb Ryerse (D)3%

$31.3K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$201.1K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula67%
Flavio Bolsonaro32%

$76.0K Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$241.9K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$64.0K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)92%
Scott Colom (D)10%

$154.2K Vol.

PA-17 House Election Winner

Chris Deluzio (D)96%
Tony Guy (R)3%

$30.7K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

11%chance

$613.3K Vol.2 months left

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)89%
Zach Lahn (R)12%

$248.5K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon37%
Édouard Philippe31%

$15.8K Vol.

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3118%
October 314%

$37.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2443%
25-2926%

$523.4K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

21%chance

$511.1K Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%59%
≥ 4.5%23%

$7.1M Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3057%
October 3138%

$119.8K Vol.

FL-11 House Election Winner

Joe Strada (R)90%
James Pericola (D)9%

$32.3K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↑ 40%44%
↓ 30%42%

$81.6K Vol.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

25%chance

$3.9M Vol.19 days left

Minnesota Attorney General Election Winner

Keith Ellison (D)77%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)23%

$23.5K Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)53%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$423.3K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$503.7K Vol.8 months left

$385.1K Vol.4 days left

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)64%
Adam Hamilton (D)37%

$911.9K Vol.

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

$302.9K Vol.2 months left

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202760%
January 15, 202732%

$859.7K Vol.

TX-22 House Election Winner

$41.2K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

$116.7K Vol.16 days left

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD92%
Other3%

$93.1K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202750%
June 30, 202735%

$2.9M Vol.

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund74%
Sven Schulze3%

$472.7K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202745%
Susie Wiles13%

$114.8K Vol.annual

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)95%
Doug Chapin (D)3%

$95.1K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$303.7K Vol.

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

December 3176%
October 312%

$139.4K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S24%
S + MP20%

$96.3K Vol.

Who will be the next US Ambassador to Greece?

Nicole Malliotakis21%
Geoffrey Pyatt21%

$5.5K Vol.

What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 14)

35%chance

$498.1 Vol.Ended

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD95%
UDMR13%

$72.5K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 20%+16%
Ruas 5-10%14%

$32.6K Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202722%

$772.8K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

$59.0K Vol.6 hours left

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)95%
Colby Watson (D)4%

$57.5K Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

120-13942%
140-15923%

$10.0K Vol.daily

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

10%chance

NY-24 House Election Winner

$50.0K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20268%

$262.7K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)78%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$563.7K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Matan Kahana15%

$47.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2831%
Ofer Winter16%

$44.8K Vol.

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$554.9K Vol.

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic64%
Republican35%

$2.5M Vol.

Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

Zoran Janković66%
Luka Mesec19%

$19.7K Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

8%chance

$2.1M Vol.2 months left

FL-28 House Election Winner

Carlos Giménez (R)95%
Phil Ehr (D)5%

$65.1K Vol.

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

$85.7K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

12%chance

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

32%chance

$31.3K Vol.2 months left

CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)

Angela Gonzales-Torres80%
Jimmy Gomez19%

$33.0K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time62%
60+18%

$919.3K Vol.

AR-02 House Election Winner

French Hill (R)85%
Chris Jones (D)16%

$38.7K Vol.

NY-03 House Election Winner

Tom Suozzi (D)88%
Mike LiPetri (R)12%

$47.5K Vol.

CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)

Aisha Wahab87%
Melissa Hernandez9%

$30.7K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Mardi Gras60%
Third Term56%

$10.9K Vol.weekly

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

25%chance

$19.4K Vol.1 year left

WI-08 House Election Winner

Tony Wied (R)90%
Rick Crosson (D)12%

$30.9K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

180-19953%
160-17928%

$54.4K Vol.daily

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)59%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$889.9K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%62%
Iotova 10-20%22%

$17.6K Vol.

CO-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%21%
Republican 3-6%21%

$27.2K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+28%
180-19924%

$31.5K Vol.daily

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3162%
Qatar18%

$159.2K Vol.

TN-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 9-12%19%
Republican 12-15%16%

$17.7K Vol.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

$769.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Rahm Emanuel30%
Gavin Newsom14%

$1.2M Vol.

OH-01 House Election Winner

Greg Landsman (D)93%
Eric Conroy (R)7%

$45.7K Vol.

TX-06 House Election Winner

Jake Ellzey (R)96%
Danny Minton (D)2%

$87.1K Vol.

WI-06 House Election Winner

Glenn Grothman (R)94%
Brad Smith (D)7%

$43.0K Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%56%
Remain 60–80%30%

$33.0K Vol.

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202716%

$716.9K Vol.

MI-04 House Election Winner

Bill Huizenga (R)50%
Sean McCann (D)49%

$14.9K Vol.

Wisconsin Governor Election Margin of Victory

Crowley 3-6%21%
Crowley 6-9%19%

$22.0K Vol.

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3194%
October 3191%

$889.6K Vol.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

92%chance

$30.5K Vol.9 days left

French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Édouard Philippe39%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon33%

$15.2K Vol.

MN-02 House Election Winner

Matt Little (D)94%
Eric Pratt (R)6%

$63.4K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

The Democrats56%
Yashar55%

$59.7K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula84%
Flavio Bolsonaro17%

$50.7K Vol.

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)68%
Sam Forstag (D)33%

$89.1K Vol.

NY-21 House Election Winner

$97.3K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$66.2K Vol.

FL-21 House Election Winner

Brian Mast (R)94%
James Martin (D)7%

$19.4K Vol.

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Deb Haaland (D)93%
Gregg Hull (R)8%

$69.1K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$231.0K Vol.2 months left

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?

$7.0K Vol.

Florida Senate Election Winner

Ashley Moody (R)91%
Angie Nixon (D)9%

$227.9K Vol.

Next Romania PM appointed by…?

December 3195%
October 3192%

$61.8K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff96%
Kaitlan Collins88%

$135.0K Vol.monthly

New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Su Chiao-hui51%
Lee Shu-chuan48%

$111.1K Vol.

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp83%
Stefan Evers16%

$239.0K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
120-13919%

$12.6K Vol.daily

Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

58%chance

$4.3K Vol.12 days left

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
Mike Collins (R)4%

$234.0K Vol.

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

28%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Colombia by...?

27%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

OH-08 House Election Winner

$17.7K Vol.

New York Attorney General Election Winner

$12.9K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3179%
November 3076%

$395.8K Vol.

Tennessee Governor Election Winner

$20.1K Vol.

Will Israel election happen as scheduled?

93%chance

$56.2K Vol.12 days left

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3061%
October 3160%

$9.7K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

6%chance

GA-09 House Election Winner

Andrew Clyde (R)96%
Caitlyn Gegen (D)3%

$45.2K Vol.

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Texas78%
Michigan74%

$108.2K Vol.

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?