Geopolitics

$74.3M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$432.6K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

$2.7M Vol.15 days left

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202726%
December 3112%

$27.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3139%
November 3025%

$1.5M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 18>99%
October 2199%

$2.0M Vol.

$2.0M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3130%
November 3026%

$415.4K Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

March 31, 202724%
December 319%

$316.9K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3113%
November 307%

$20.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
October 31, 202764%

$8.7M Vol.

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 1794%
October 1992%

$546.0K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$279.3K Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 319%
October 311%

$76.1M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$9.1M Vol.

Israel military action against Syria by...?

November 3028%
October 3117%

$156.9K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT31%
CATL18%

$604.9K Vol.

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$202.0K Vol.2 months left

$41.1K Vol.15 days left

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

22%chance

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3114%
November 3010%

$17.0M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$126.1K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3173%
November 3051%

$579.2K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 319%

$387.5K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$71.4K Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3135%
October 313%

$227.7K Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Saudi Arabia16%
Russia10%

$107.1K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$836.1K Vol.45 days left

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3133%
October 317%

$10.2M Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

$130.1K Vol.15 days left

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$181.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3032%
October 317%

$242.3K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China71%
No meeting by December 3124%

$1.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 311%

$2.4M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3120%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202721%
December 3112%

$4.9M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1699%
October 2889%

$157.7K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3133%
November 3024%

$3.1M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1975%
October 2272%

$302.5K Vol.monthly

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$843.8K Vol.2 months left

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$298.8K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202635%
November 30, 202624%

$742.1K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3131%

$123.6K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

March 31, 202764%
December 3134%

$77.4K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

$613.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3118%
October 313%

$37.5K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

$512.4K Vol.2 months left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202749%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2838%
Ofer Winter17%

$48.0K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff34%
Jared Kushner33%

$1.5M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2832%
Yoram Cohen13%

$51.3K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202761%
January 15, 202750%

$861.8K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

$504.1K Vol.8 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$69.7K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$849.9K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202759%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time62%
60+19%

$921.3K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

60%chance

$79.2K Vol.2 months left

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$304.7K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2928%
<2023%

$13.9K Vol.weekly

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela10%
Kuwait7%

$912.5K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3178%
November 3076%

$397.8K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$641.6K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$65.1K Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3066%
October 3144%

$13.0K Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3164%
Qatar15%

$163.3K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

190-20944%
170-18934%

$4.4K Vol.weekly

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka33%
Kramatorsk9%

$1.7M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$278.1K Vol.2 months left

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202734%
June 30, 202725%

$8.5M Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2955%
30-3421%

$47.2K Vol.monthly

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-592%
5-104%

$25.0K Vol.monthly

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$33.1K Vol.15 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

$19.6K Vol.1 year left

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$231.0K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

170-18954%
190-20931%

$10.0K Vol.weekly

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1634%
11-1325%

$10.4K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3112%
October 316%

$99.3K Vol.

US military action against Cuba by...?

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-877%
<713%

$14.0K Vol.

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

$16.1K Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

$157.2K Vol.2 months left

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

$24.2K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz98%
Ursula von der Leyen97%

$213.4K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3184%
October 3121%

$463.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?

$21.3K Vol.15 days left

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$12.5K Vol.

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 3098%
November 1588%

$11.5K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?

$115.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

$37.4K Vol.2 months left

EU dissolves before 2027?

$183.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3072%
October 3125%

$19.3K Vol.

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

$273.7K Vol.2 months left

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3120%
October 152%

$134.4K Vol.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$426.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

November 3032%
October 314%

$99.5K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$175.7K Vol.

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3118%
October 312%

$62.4K Vol.

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

$7.8K Vol.15 days left

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20267%

$117.4K Vol.

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 317%
October 311%

$1.1M Vol.

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

20%chance

$4.8K Vol.15 days left

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 293%
October 1193%

$46.8K Vol.monthly

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3162%
October 2021%

$6.7K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$40.4K Vol.

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

December 3182%
October 3127%

$24.9K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2042%
30-3420%

$2.3K Vol.weekly

How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?

263%
314%

$6.6K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 478%
October 1176%

$886.9K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202734%

$403.5K Vol.

Will Russia capture Svitle by...?

18%chance

$43.5K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$561.6K Vol.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

$156.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

535%
425%

$10.8K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?

December 3128%
October 3110%

$12.7K Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE35%
Turkey23%

$34.3K Vol.

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3169%
October 2218%

$1.1K Vol.

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

$170.4K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 316%
October 154%

$23.3K Vol.

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

22%chance

$15.3K Vol.2 months left

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

$145.3K Vol.2 months left

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

1-10071%
1k-2.5k20%

$303.2K Vol.

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$408.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by...?

December 3124%
October 319%

$4.4K Vol.

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Egypt11%
Bahrain9%

$80.8K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha16%

$46.5K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2836%
Tally Gotliv14%

$50.6K Vol.

Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?

6-732%
4-530%

$12.3K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$642.3K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

18-20%55%
16-18%28%

$5.8K Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 599%
October 896%

$115.6K Vol.monthly

US strike on Mexico by...?

$766.4K Vol.2 months left

China coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$164.3K Vol.

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

$4.9K Vol.15 days left

Prime Minister of Australia after next election?

Anthony Albanese42%
Pauline Hanson25%

$34.0K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$408.7K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Wang Huning6%
Li Xi5%

$253.2K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?

November 1550%
October 3126%

$6.8K Vol.monthly

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3114%
October 153%

$40.6K Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

$16.4K Vol.

Ukraine election called by...?

$98.1K Vol.2 months left

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

$53.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$404.1K Vol.2 months left

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

October 3189%
November 3083%

$11.7K Vol.

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

$178.1K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2837%
Yoav Ben-Tzur24%

$15.2K Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

10+30%
20+14%

$5.0K Vol.monthly

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 318%

$3.5M Vol.

Russia coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202717%
December 31, 20263%

$148.9K Vol.

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3129%
October 3111%

$65.2K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$25.6K Vol.2 months left

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

4+70%
330%

$36.1K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman34%
Dario Amodei16%

$56.0K Vol.monthly

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

$126.3K Vol.2 months left

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$558.5K Vol.

Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?

$20.9K Vol.2 months left

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3186%
October 3143%

$8.2K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

$748.0K Vol.2 months left

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

463%
516%

$7.6M Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<467%
4-634%

$11.8K Vol.

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3185%
November 3066%

$41.3K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

September 2681%
September 2976%

$214.5K Vol.monthly

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3139%
October 3112%

$53.8K Vol.

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 20267%

$607.3K Vol.

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

$990.9 Vol.15 days left

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$381.1K Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

$637.9K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3181%
October 152%

$11.5K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2330%
20-2119%

$19.7K Vol.

Israel Election: Shas # of seats?

8-937%
6-732%

$7.5K Vol.

Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?

December 3172%
October 3124%

$1.8K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$252.1K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?

December 3116%
October 317%

$5.4K Vol.

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?

November 305%
October 312%

$27.9K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

September 2193%
September 2993%

$183.5K Vol.monthly

Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?

32%chance

$15.4K Vol.2 months left

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$862.5K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Joint List # of seats?

8-937%
6-735%

$5.1K Vol.

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

$26.4K Vol.2 months left

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

March 3122%
December 315%

$1.4M Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?

$287.1K Vol.2 months left

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

$183.3K Vol.2 months left

Russia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?

$1.4K Vol.15 days left

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico17%
Israel13%

$401.9K Vol.annual

Israel Election: Dems # of seats?

10-1129%
8-928%

$6.7K Vol.

Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

30%chance

$95.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Kuwait by...?

$2.2K Vol.15 days left

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 309%
December 314%

$3.4K Vol.

European military action against Iran by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$332.2K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

$7.1K Vol.15 days left

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?

$4.9K Vol.2 months left

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

US announces military base in Israel in 2026?

$1.8K Vol.2 months left

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

$534.9K Vol.2 months left

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3116%
October 317%

$87.6K Vol.

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202730%
December 31, 202613%

$4.1K Vol.

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↓ $4.3046%
↓ $4.2044%

$1.3K Vol.monthly

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

$19.3K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

September 2222%
September 1821%

$122.5K Vol.monthly

Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by...?

$5.7K Vol.2 months left

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Ursula von der Leyen46%
Mark Rutte45%

$565.7K Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

$219.0K Vol.2 months left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Nothing Ever Happens: October

94%chance

$11.9K Vol.15 days left

US x Russia military clash by...?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

$44.0K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?

December 3127%
November 3018%

$3.9K Vol.

Will Israel annex any territory by...?

$94.9K Vol.2 months left

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

$20.8K Vol.15 days left

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan51%
Rafael Grossi19%

$225.2K Vol.

Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?

$148.3K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine lowers conscription age by...?

March 3119%
December 315%

$4.1K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

$226.1K Vol.2 months left

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

$189.7K Vol.

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

$31.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?

34%chance

$24.9K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan14%
Germany14%

$681.3K Vol.annual

U.S. nuclear test by...?

$77.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$567.1K Vol.2 months left

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Xiaomi21%
ByteDance17%

$126.3K Vol.

Will Iran target Oman by...?

November 3010%
October 313%

$45.4K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

$154.8K Vol.2 months left

Another NATO article 4 by...?

December 3132%
October 317%

$183.7K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

$1.4K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

$142.9K Vol.2 months left

Erdoğan out by...?

December 31, 202716%
December 31, 20264%

$649.3K Vol.

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

$44.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Alberta join the US?

$2.2M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu # of seats?

8-947%
6-724%

$5.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?

$43.9K Vol.2 months left

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

858%
932%

$1.7M Vol.

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

$26.5K Vol.8 months left

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

$63.6K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

US28%
Italy19%

$51.3K Vol.monthly

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

$53.5K Vol.2 months left

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

$36.5K Vol.2 months left

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

$273.6K Vol.2 months left

Russia strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?

August 2194%
August 2894%

$9.4K Vol.

Abdul-Malik al-Houthi out by...?

December 3113%
November 3011%

$79.8 Vol.

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?

34%chance

$18.0K Vol.2 months left

Israel military action against Iraq by...?

$3.3K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?

$65.0K Vol.2 months left

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

400-500k54%
500-600k12%

$130.6K Vol.annual

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.4K Vol.2 months left

Russia nuclear test by...?

$122.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

$92.4K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

$70.4K Vol.2 months left

Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?

December 3160%
October 3124%

$505.1 Vol.

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

$235.1K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Mecca by...?

December 315%
October 313%

$7.1K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?

20%chance

$36.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?

26%chance

$69.4K Vol.2 months left

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

$535.2K Vol.2 months left

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

$6.6K Vol.15 days left

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

$56.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?

$44.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?

December 319%
October 312%

$150.9K Vol.

Saudi troops enter Taiz by...?

December 3114%
October 313%

$15.4K Vol.

EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...?

December 3110%
October 31<1%

$3.6K Vol.

Will Russia enter Moskovka by...?

$5.5K Vol.15 days left

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump meet with Marcos by December 31, 2026?

93%chance

$1.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

25%chance

$68.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?

$2.8K Vol.15 days left

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$354.8K Vol.

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

$473.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Stavky by...?

$315.0 Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by...?

$3.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...?

$897.8 Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Myropillia by...?

$9.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by...?

$23.7K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

$167.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by...?

December 31, 202717%
June 30, 202713%

$4.8K Vol.daily

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

$198.4K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine election held by...?

$239.2K Vol.2 months left

Canada applies for full EU membership by...?

December 31, 202711%
December 31, 20261%

$1.7K Vol.

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

$15.2K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?

$12.5K Vol.15 days left

Greece x Turkey military engagement by...?

$60.5K Vol.2 months left

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

$449.2K Vol.2 months left

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by...?

$24.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?

18%chance

$317.7 Vol.2 months left

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by...?

$15.2K Vol.2 months left

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

$191.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?

$27.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Borova by...?

15%chance

$162.0 Vol.2 months left

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

$42.5K Vol.2 months left

Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?

$38.4K Vol.2 months left

France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...?

December 315%
October 312%

$12.5K Vol.

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?

$113.7K Vol.2 months left

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

$198.1K Vol.2 months left

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

$167.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?

$53.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

$133.9K Vol.2 months left

Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

$161.0K Vol.

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

$152.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

$397.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?

$1.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by...?

$2.7K Vol.2 months left

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

$448.5K Vol.2 months left

Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

$4.0K Vol.2 years left

NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?

$18.7K Vol.2 months left

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

$163.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

$79.6K Vol.2 months left

Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by...?

$1.5K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

$99.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

$60.1K Vol.2 months left

US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?

$80.4K Vol.2 months left

Maduro guilty of all counts?

36%chance

$133.2K Vol.1 year left

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

$688.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3143%
October 2233%

$0.0 Vol.

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 318%
October 313%

$4.2K Vol.

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

December 317%
November 305%

$380.3 Vol.

Turkish troops enter Yemen by...?

December 3111%
October 314%

$5.0K Vol.

Houthis target Syria by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$4.1K Vol.

Any G20 leader out in 2026?

$201.2 Vol.2 months left

Syrian troops enter Yemen by...?

December 3112%
October 313%

$5.3K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?

20%chance

$13.1K Vol.8 months left

Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?

December 3116%
October 313%

$14.0K Vol.

Saudi troops enter Sanaa by...?

December 317%
October 313%

$9.2K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

$16.7K Vol.8 months left

Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?

$2.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?

$153.2 Vol.2 months left

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

$2.1K Vol.15 days left

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

$4.7K Vol.15 days left

FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?

$11.1K Vol.15 days left

Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?

$13.1K Vol.2 months left

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

$7.2K Vol.2 months left

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202725%
December 31, 20268%

$262.7K Vol.

Greenland snap election called by December 31?

$22.1K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Netanyahu by...?

December 3153%
October 3116%

$6.4K Vol.

Netanyahu convicted in corruption trial?

27%chance

$349.7 Vol.1 year left

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

$3.5K Vol.2 months left

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

$35.6K Vol.15 days left

Will Iran target Bahrain by...?

32%chance

$2.5K Vol.15 days left

Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

10+31%
6-730%

$8.1K Vol.

Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?

December 319%
October 313%

$58.3K Vol.

Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by...?

$16.6K Vol.15 days left

Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

$414.5 Vol.2 months left

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

$23.7K Vol.15 days left

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

$6.9K Vol.15 days left

Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?

November 3063%
October 3125%

$11.8K Vol.

Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by...?

December 3117%
October 312%

$64.8K Vol.

Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?

$4.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by...?

December 316%
October 312%

$10.5K Vol.

Which countries will host an F1 race in 2026?

Qatar54%
UAE38%

$527.7 Vol.

Will Iran target Qatar by...?

$974.4 Vol.15 days left

Will Iran target Syria by...?

$2.1K Vol.15 days left

Will Iran target Egypt by...?

$1.3K Vol.15 days left

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

$119.9K Vol.2 months left

Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?

$108.5 Vol.2 months left

US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?

$40.4K Vol.2 months left

Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$1.3K Vol.15 days left

Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$1.0K Vol.15 days left

Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$2.2K Vol.15 days left

Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$1.2K Vol.15 days left

Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$643.6 Vol.15 days left

Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

December 315%
October 31<1%

$118.0K Vol.

Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?

June 30, 202730%
December 31, 202617%

$46.4K Vol.

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$329.9K Vol.

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

$126.7K Vol.2 months left

Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?

June 3025%
December 315%

$62.0K Vol.

Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?

18%chance

$13.2K Vol.2 months left

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

$281.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?

$869.5 Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Stavky by...?

$1.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

$65.0K Vol.2 months left

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

$42.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by...?

$42.2K Vol.2 months left

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?

$223.4 Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?

$54.7K Vol.2 months left

Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by...?

$12.1K Vol.2 months left

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

$30.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?

$56.0K Vol.2 months left

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?

$26.6K Vol.2 months left

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

$102.5K Vol.2 months left

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

$355.2K Vol.2 months left

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

$121.8K Vol.2 months left

António Guterres out by December 31?

$2.4K Vol.2 months left

Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?

$1.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?

$2.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?

27%chance

$1.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?

$3.1K Vol.2 months left

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

$33.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by...?

$9.8K Vol.2 months left

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

$32.7K Vol.2 months left

US military draft authorized in 2026?

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

$124.0K Vol.2 months left

US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...?

$40.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

$195.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?

$238.0 Vol.2 months left

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

$161.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

$4.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?

$97.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?

$34.0K Vol.2 months left

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

$180.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?

$27.2K Vol.2 months left

Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by...?

$10.2K Vol.2 months left

Will NATO countries clash with each other by...?

December 31, 202717%
December 31, 20263%

$63.5K Vol.

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?

$79.2K Vol.2 months left

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?

$13.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

$50.7K Vol.2 months left

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

$77.6K Vol.2 months left

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

$106.8K Vol.2 months left

NATO dissolves before 2027?

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202728%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

$157.7K Vol.2 months left

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?

$54.5K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

$255.9K Vol.2 months left

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

$87.2K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

$287.8K Vol.2 months left

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

$337.5K Vol.2 months left

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

$295.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 311%

$968.0K Vol.

Lai Ching-te impeached by...?

$314.9 Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?

$120.2K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20266%

$172.8K Vol.

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

$90.8K Vol.2 months left

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

$191.8K Vol.2 months left

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

$75.1K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

The Netherlands10%
New Zealand10%

$762.3K Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

$2.1M Vol.2 months left

India strike on Pakistan by...?

$333.6K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

$10.8K Vol.2 months left

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?