All markets
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?
5%chance
- Yes4.9%
Outcomes
- Yes5%
4.9¢ per share
- No95%
95.1¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4.9¢Spread 2.8¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5¢ | 40 | $1.40 |
| 3.4¢ | 24.85 | $0.84 |
| 3.3¢ | 103.81 | $3.43 |
| 3.2¢ | 64.94 | $2.08 |
| 2.7¢ | 20 | $0.54 |
| 2.2¢ | 25.38 | $0.56 |
| 2.1¢ | 80 | $1.68 |
| 2¢ | 255.28 | $5.11 |
| 1.8¢ | 6.52 | $0.12 |
| 1.7¢ | 20 | $0.34 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 6.3¢ | 130 | $8.19 |
| 6.4¢ | 207.66 | $13.29 |
| 6.6¢ | 91.05 | $6.01 |
| 6.7¢ | 20 | $1.34 |
| 7.3¢ | 80 | $5.84 |
| 7.7¢ | 53.4 | $4.11 |
| 8.7¢ | 20 | $1.74 |
| 21¢ | 8.86 | $1.86 |
| 21.5¢ | 25 | $5.38 |
| 34.4¢ | 8 | $2.75 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.