Politics

212 events

Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro85%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva14%
$181.6M Vol.

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 1794%

$12.9M Vol.monthly

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

260-27932%
280-29926%

$2.0M Vol.weekly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.8M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.4M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.5M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3165%
December 3139%

$40.0M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.1M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu93%
Ilie Bolojan1%

$5.2M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Gavin Newsom14%

$1.3B Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an65%
Puma Shen36%

$1.1M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

260-27918%
240-25916%

$330.0K Vol.weekly

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3125%
October 318%

$186.7K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi42%
Jared Kushner40%

$1.5M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$435.2K Vol.Ended

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 315%
October 31<1%

$73.4M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.6M Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance48%
Marco Rubio14%

$711.4M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.5M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$46.0M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson16%

$10.1M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

8%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3016%

$595.8K Vol.

$1.4M Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3137%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić69%
Ilija Srdanović22%

$1.3M Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$232.8K Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)52%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$416.4K Vol.

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202718%

$3.9M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)4%

$308.2K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202744%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro70%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$298.0K Vol.

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)91%
Zach Lahn (R)10%

$240.5K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$192.0K Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$260.1K Vol.20 days left

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23914%
200-21914%

$54.8K Vol.weekly

NY-23 House Election Winner

Nick Langworthy (R)97%
Aaron Gies (D)2%

$87.8K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$233.6K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together84%
The Democrats9%

$42.8K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)78%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$558.9K Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$260.9K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland17%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD79%
Other11%

$87.2K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$792.3K Vol.47 days left

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow73%
Brad Bradford26%

$374.9K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$175.7K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?

Nevada87%
TSMC / Taiwan86%

$25.7K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.0K Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202820%
December 31, 202713%

$682.8K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

$497.6K Vol.8 months left

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

11%chance

$216.7K Vol.17 days left

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Jon Ossoff48%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez35%

$70.3K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff95%
Kaitlan Collins89%

$132.2K Vol.monthly

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$418.1K Vol.

NH-02 House Election Winner

$41.7K Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.6M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$97.0K Vol.

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)96%
Doug Chapin (D)3%

$88.2K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 3110%

$362.9K Vol.

KS-04 House Election Winner

Ron Estes (R)95%
Katy Tyndell (D)6%

$105.5K Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$784.9K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

6%chance

$843.5K Vol.17 days left

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

93%chance

$27.4K Vol.10 days left

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo81%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.8M Vol.

PA-16 House Election Winner

Mike Kelly (R)96%
Justin Wagner (D)4%

$73.5K Vol.

TX-08 House Election Winner

$54.9K Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD91%
UDMR20%

$69.2K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3135%
November 3033%

$335.6K Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2443%
25-2926%

$515.8K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202722%

$224.7K Vol.

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Deb Haaland (D)96%
Gregg Hull (R)6%

$65.8K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3121%
October 314%

$51.4K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%59%
≥ 4.5%22%

$7.1M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+93%
960-9994%

$376.6K Vol.daily

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

24%chance

$175.1K Vol.2 months left

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)57%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$886.1K Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%56%
Remain 60–80%26%

$30.3K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Montana?

Coal / Diesel90%
Shit / Ass73%

$12.0K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

40-6434%
65-8933%

$22.6K Vol.daily

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3119%
October 316%

$22.1K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

180-19942%
200+36%

$51.0K Vol.daily

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$380.5K Vol.2 months left

MO-04 House Election Winner

Mark Alford (R)96%
Jordan Herrera (D)3%

$73.2K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3141%

$112.6K Vol.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$618.5K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

12%chance

$167.7K Vol.2 months left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula59%
Flavio Bolsonaro42%

$74.3K Vol.

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

$360.8K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$110.9K Vol.17 days left

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Paxton 0-3%31%
Talarico 0-3%28%

$30.9K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$54.6K Vol.1 day left

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Oklahoma Governor Election Winner

Mike Mazzei (R)91%
Cyndi Munson (D)9%

$43.5K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.2+99%

$17.5K Vol.weekly

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 3112%
October 312%

$10.6K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar59%
Likud42%

$664.7K Vol.

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)69%
Sam Forstag (D)32%

$85.8K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$403.4K Vol.2 months left

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$550.3K Vol.

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

Pete Fry57%
Ken Sim43%

$279.5K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

No Next Minister by Feb 2833%
Gadi Eizenkot16%

$62.9K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov14%

$1.2M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202640%
November 30, 202632%

$706.8K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory

Graham 0-5%33%
Graham 5-10%26%

$18.5K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3122%
October 317%

$29.6K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202717%
December 31, 20269%

$257.3K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
Mike Collins (R)4%

$231.0K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3127%
October 316%

$6.7M Vol.

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)95%
Colby Watson (D)6%

$52.3K Vol.

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Thom Tillis11%
Mike Lee9%

$312.0K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

22%chance

$468.0K Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+42%
180-19925%

$27.8K Vol.daily

Next Romania PM appointed by…?

December 3195%
October 3186%

$58.7K Vol.

IL-05 House Election Winner

Mike Quigley (D)97%
Tommy Hanson (R)2%

$35.2K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby20%

$153.8K Vol.

GA-10 House Election Winner

Houston Gaines (R)96%
Pam Delancy (D)2%

$55.4K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman79%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula85%
Flavio Bolsonaro13%

$47.4K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202739%

$2.0M Vol.

HI-01 House Election Winner

Ed Case (D)96%
Adriel Lam (R)3%

$52.9K Vol.

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20262%

$742.6K Vol.

NYC Mayor # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

20-3991%
40-598%

$6.4K Vol.daily

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

$664.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

25%chance

$3.9M Vol.20 days left

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↑ 40%56%
↓ 30%50%

$74.7K Vol.

MI-05 House Election Winner

$37.2K Vol.

Khamenei # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

<595%
5-94%

$17.5K Vol.daily

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

October 3195%
December 3195%

$886.2K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+27%
120-13919%

$9.6K Vol.daily

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$192.4K Vol.

Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Zac de Vries79%
Rishi Sharma16%

$49.0K Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.2M Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP85%
PSOE14%

$107.4K Vol.

CZ # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

20-3996%
40-593%

$8.8K Vol.daily

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat95%
AUR3%

$347.2K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202747%
Pete Hegseth9%

$109.0K Vol.annual

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202733%

$2.9M Vol.

Vermont Governor Election Winner

Phil Scott (R)75%
Amanda Janoo (D)25%

$236.3K Vol.

AZ-02 House Election Winner

Eli Crane (R)74%
Jonathan Nez (D)26%

$15.7K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

The Democrats54%
Yisrael Beiteinu53%

$56.0K Vol.

TX-15 House Election Winner

Bobby Pulido (D)82%
Monica De La Cruz (R)19%

$63.1K Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$500.1K Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 5-10%33%
Democrat 0-5%23%

$5.0K Vol.

CO-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%20%
Democrat 0-3%18%

$23.4K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$84.3K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place

The Democrats43%
Together29%

$8.1K Vol.

South Dakota Senate Election Winner

Mike Rounds (R)94%
Brian Bengs (I)6%

$60.0K Vol.

OH-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 0-3%19%
Republican 0-3%18%

$25.9K Vol.

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman54%
Karen Bass46%

$15.3M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$39.9K Vol.

Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202720%

$575.2K Vol.

TX-22 House Election Winner

$35.3K Vol.

Texas Senate Election: Tarrant County Winner

James Talarico (D)93%
Ken Paxton (R)6%

$24.8K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Douglas Ruas98%
Eduardo Paes<1%

$784.8K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner

Allyson74%
Cadu de Lula23%

$68.5K Vol.

MN-05 House Election Winner

Ilhan Omar (D)95%
John Nagel (R)6%

$71.9K Vol.

Which party will win white women in the midterms?

Democrats71%
Republicans17%

$32.7K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Handsome75%
Mardi Gras71%

$6.9K Vol.weekly

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

5%chance

$563.0K Vol.2 months left

Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Ossoff 6-9%22%
Ossoff 9-12%21%

$21.6K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

$142.8K Vol.

Will Israel election happen as scheduled?

92%chance

$53.4K Vol.13 days left

Arizona Governor Election Winner

Katie Hobbs (D)89%
Andy Biggs (R)12%

$135.6K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$54.1K Vol.

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Texas75%
Michigan70%

$105.6K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas <5%16%
Ruas 20%+10%

$27.2K Vol.

Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory

Moody 6-9%23%
Moody 3-6%19%

$23.2K Vol.

MI-03 House Election Winner

$55.1K Vol.

Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

Zoran Janković67%
Anton Rop13%

$15.2K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2836%
Tally Gotliv14%

$49.3K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$48.7K Vol.

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

March 31, 202717%
December 31, 20267%

$295.2K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3182%
November 3075%

$390.9K Vol.

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

7%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

WV-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 30-35%26%
Republican 45%+19%

$13.5K Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3121%
October 312%

$1.8M Vol.

LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?

Raman 0-4%24%
Raman 4-8%20%

$18.5K Vol.

FL-19 House Election Winner

Jim Schwartzel (R)95%
Victor Arias (D)5%

$31.3K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

1%chance

$23.4K Vol.17 days left

PA-11 House Election Winner

Lloyd Smucker (R)95%
Nancy Mannion (D)4%

$55.1K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$174.0K Vol.

PA-16 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 15-20%31%
Republican 10-15%29%

$16.5K Vol.

El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place

PCN47%
ARENA26%

$10.0K Vol.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 202744%
December 3114%

$4.3M Vol.

Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%25%
Democrat 25-30%23%

$15.7K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

12%chance

$225.3K Vol.2 months left

OH-11 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 60-65%35%
Democrat 65-70%23%

$12.3K Vol.

MI-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 20-25%37%
Republican 15-20%25%

$24.9K Vol.

Politics

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?