Politics

193 events

Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro85%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva14%
$181.6M Vol.

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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.3M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 1796%

$12.6M Vol.monthly

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

260-27926%
280-29926%

$1.9M Vol.weekly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?

90-114>99%
115-139<1%

$620.6K Vol.daily

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3166%
December 3140%

$40.0M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.0M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.4M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.1M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu94%
Ilie Bolojan1%

$5.2M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

240-25914%
260-27914%

$317.2K Vol.weekly

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an64%
Puma Shen36%

$1.1M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Gavin Newsom14%

$1.3B Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$154.9K Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.6M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 315%
October 31<1%

$73.4M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$434.2K Vol.Ended

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.5M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$46.0M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi42%
Donald Trump41%

$1.5M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio15%

$711.4M Vol.

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202718%

$3.9M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson15%

$10.1M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3016%

$595.8K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.4M Vol.17 days left

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić69%
Ilija Srdanović23%

$1.3M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$258.5K Vol.20 days left

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)91%
Zach Lahn (R)10%

$240.5K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3138%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3145%
November 3031%

$1.3M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202744%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202820%
December 31, 202713%

$682.8K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$298.0K Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)94%
Bruce Blakeman (R)6%

$226.8K Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)4%

$308.1K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$192.0K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$233.4K Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)87%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$259.7K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23914%
200-21914%

$54.5K Vol.weekly

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$174.5K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow73%
Brad Bradford26%

$374.4K Vol.

NY-23 House Election Winner

Nick Langworthy (R)97%
Aaron Gies (D)2%

$87.7K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)78%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$558.8K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%61%
≥ 4.5%21%

$7.1M Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland16%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.0K Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202713%

$720.7K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD77%
Other10%

$82.9K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 319%

$362.6K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$96.0K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$786.7K Vol.47 days left

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3134%
November 3033%

$335.3K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

12%chance

$216.5K Vol.17 days left

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.6M Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Kaitlan Collins89%

$132.0K Vol.monthly

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202836%
December 31, 202716%

$713.4K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

NH-02 House Election Winner

$41.7K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?

Shit / Ass79%
Nevada79%

$20.0K Vol.

TX-08 House Election Winner

$54.9K Vol.

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)96%
Doug Chapin (D)3%

$88.2K Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$416.5K Vol.

KS-04 House Election Winner

Ron Estes (R)95%
Katy Tyndell (D)6%

$105.5K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez73%
Jon Ossoff14%

$66.5K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)63%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$904.4K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$121.4K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.8M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3120%
October 316%

$49.3K Vol.

PA-16 House Election Winner

Mike Kelly (R)96%
Justin Wagner (D)4%

$73.5K Vol.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

93%chance

$26.4K Vol.10 days left

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$783.1K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD91%
UDMR19%

$67.0K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202722%

$224.7K Vol.

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Deb Haaland (D)96%
Gregg Hull (R)6%

$65.8K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar59%
Likud42%

$664.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula59%
Flavio Bolsonaro42%

$74.2K Vol.

$885.5K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

180-19941%
200+41%

$50.5K Vol.daily

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Paxton 0-3%32%
Talarico 0-3%26%

$29.2K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

MO-04 House Election Winner

Mark Alford (R)96%
Jordan Herrera (D)3%

$73.2K Vol.

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3110%
October 316%

$20.6K Vol.

Minnesota Attorney General Election Winner

Keith Ellison (D)76%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)24%

$16.7K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+92%
960-9994%

$370.9K Vol.daily

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

12%chance

$166.0K Vol.2 months left

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

$360.8K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.0+89%

$12.7K Vol.weekly

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$549.6K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Oklahoma Governor Election Winner

Mike Mazzei (R)91%
Cyndi Munson (D)9%

$43.5K Vol.

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?

47–49 and 193–20723%
≤46 and ≤19222%

$74.2K Vol.

CA-37 House Election Winner (Individual)

Sydney Kamlager-Dove96%
Samantha Mota3%

$43.8K Vol.

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)69%
Sam Forstag (D)32%

$85.7K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$39.1K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
Mike Collins (R)4%

$231.0K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together70%
The Democrats17%

$18.8K Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%51%
Remain 60–80%21%

$26.3K Vol.

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat88%
PSD6%

$344.4K Vol.

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

Pete Fry57%
Ken Sim43%

$279.3K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Margin of Victory

Turek 0-3%33%
Hinson 0-3%26%

$19.6K Vol.

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 3112%
October 314%

$8.1K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory

Graham 0-5%32%
Graham 5-10%28%

$18.0K Vol.

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

5%chance

$563.0K Vol.2 months left

Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202720%

$575.2K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+33%
160-17930%

$26.3K Vol.daily

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202717%
December 31, 20269%

$257.1K Vol.

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↑ 40%51%
↓ 30%39%

$74.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula66%
Flavio Bolsonaro33%

$64.1K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby20%

$153.6K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$50.3K Vol.1 day left

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3189%
October 3183%

$882.2K Vol.

GA-10 House Election Winner

Houston Gaines (R)96%
Pam Delancy (D)2%

$55.4K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202733%

$2.9M Vol.

IL-05 House Election Winner

Mike Quigley (D)97%
Tommy Hanson (R)2%

$35.2K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen89%
David Lisnard4%

$14.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$61.0K Vol.

HI-01 House Election Winner

Ed Case (D)96%
Adriel Lam (R)3%

$52.9K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20262%

$742.6K Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

$664.9K Vol.2 months left

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

25%chance

$3.9M Vol.20 days left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2444%
25-2926%

$503.6K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

5%chance

$228.3K Vol.2 months left

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by...?

December 3186%
October 3113%

$28.5K Vol.

Which party will win white women in the midterms?

Democrats77%
Republicans18%

$30.6K Vol.

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund78%
Sven Schulze3%

$460.1K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Peltola 3-6%38%
Peltola 0-3%35%

$15.4K Vol.

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)97%
Colby Watson (D)3%

$50.3K Vol.

TX-15 House Election Winner

Bobby Pulido (D)81%
Monica De La Cruz (R)19%

$63.0K Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3072%
October 3159%

$6.6K Vol.

Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?

October 3123%
October 156%

$11.3K Vol.

Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Zac de Vries78%
Rishi Sharma17%

$48.5K Vol.

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Mr Speaker 20+ times>99%
Scotland>99%

$6.8K Vol.weekly

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$354.8K Vol.

AZ-02 House Election Winner

Eli Crane (R)74%
Jonathan Nez (D)26%

$15.7K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Montana?

Coal / Diesel76%
Shit / Ass74%

$4.7K Vol.

South Dakota Senate Election Winner

Mike Rounds (R)94%
Brian Bengs (I)6%

$59.9K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Yisrael Beiteinu53%
The Democrats51%

$55.9K Vol.

MN-05 House Election Winner

Ilhan Omar (D)94%
John Nagel (R)5%

$70.7K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$83.7K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202751%
Pete Hegseth8%

$107.0K Vol.annual

Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

Zoran Janković67%
Anton Rop13%

$15.2K Vol.

CO-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%19%
Democrat 0-3%18%

$23.4K Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$499.0K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$828.0K Vol.17 days left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$48.6K Vol.

OH-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 0-3%19%
Republican 0-3%18%

$25.9K Vol.

CZ # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

20-3992%
40-595%

$7.7K Vol.daily

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin81%
Mohammed bin Salman79%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner

Allyson77%
Cadu de Lula24%

$67.7K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

$142.8K Vol.

OH-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 0-3%21%
Democrat 3-6%19%

$15.0K Vol.

Senate Three-Way Combo: Ohio, Iowa, Maine

Dems OH & ME, Reps IA34%
Dems sweep19%

$19.5K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%18%
4.75%15%

$19.5K Vol.

NC-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6-9%26%
Republican 3-6%21%

$11.2K Vol.

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$183.1K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place

Yisrael Beiteinu36%
The Democrats31%

$3.4K Vol.

FL-14 House Election Winner

Kathy Castor (D)68%
Mike Beltran (R)28%

$66.7K Vol.

OR-02 House Election Winner

Cliff Bentz (R)96%
Chris Beck (D)5%

$20.5K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Andrey Gyurov89%
Natalia Kiselova7%

$3.3K Vol.

NY-11 House Election Winner

$38.5K Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%87%
↓ 36%68%

$3.3K Vol.

HI-02 House Election Winner

Jill Tokuda (D)96%
Brenton Awa (R)4%

$81.0K Vol.

NJ-07 House Election Winner

$47.6K Vol.

White House # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?

200+>99%
180-199<1%

$13.6K Vol.daily

NY-14 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 45-50%30%
Democrat 40-45%30%

$15.4K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Kostadin Kostadinov87%
Boyko Borissov6%

$3.2K Vol.

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$31.5K Vol.2 months left

Politics

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?