Politics

153 events

Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro86%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva14%
$181.2M Vol.

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3181%

$12.3M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1896%

$1.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

240-25925%
260-27923%

$1.6M Vol.weekly

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202717%

$3.9M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen43%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.4M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep62%
R Senate, D House28%

$22.9M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Gavin Newsom14%

$1.3B Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3142%

$39.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?

90-11469%
65-8919%

$385.0K Vol.daily

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.0M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$16.8M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 31<1%

$73.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.2M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$715.9M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$216.0K Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202711%

$660.7K Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio15%

$711.3M Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an66%
Puma Shen34%

$1.0M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

240-25914%
220-23913%

$226.0K Vol.weekly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%63%
4.0%24%

$7.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson15%

$10.1M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)64%
Ken Paxton (R)37%

$3.6M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.9M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3131%
October 318%

$104.6K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.4M Vol.17 days left

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić71%
Ilija Srdanović17%

$1.2M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu83%
Sorin Grindeanu5%

$5.0M Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$405.1K Vol.

$239.6K Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.4M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Healthcare86%
America First20%

$58.7K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$163.3K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$119.9K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202743%
Netanyahu - Israel PM33%

$1.0M Vol.annual

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner42%
Steve Witkoff42%

$1.4M Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)5%

$302.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$154.5K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$86.8K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3116%
October 317%

$268.6K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$340.6K Vol.Ended

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3118%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$252.4K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

9%chance

$209.4K Vol.17 days left

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3132%
October 313%

$1.0M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23916%
200-21914%

$29.3K Vol.weekly

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

$662.8K Vol.2 months left

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3137%
November 3035%

$328.6K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar59%
Likud42%

$657.9K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
June 30, 202712%

$717.8K Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$767.6K Vol.

TX-04 House Election Winner

Pat Fallon (R)95%
Jason Pearce (D)2%

$79.1K Vol.

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202716%

$711.4K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$46.1K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez15%

$1.8M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow74%
Brad Bradford27%

$349.3K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3064%
October 3144%

$105.0K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202722%

$222.9K Vol.

NH-02 House Election Winner

$41.7K Vol.

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)69%
Sam Forstag (D)32%

$85.5K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)40%

$1.2M Vol.

KS-04 House Election Winner

Ron Estes (R)95%
Katy Tyndell (D)5%

$105.0K Vol.

TX-08 House Election Winner

$53.9K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby20%

$153.6K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)80%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 19%

$544.1K Vol.

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Thom Tillis10%
Catherine Cortez Masto10%

$308.0K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Jon Ossoff42%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez41%

$62.8K Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

5%chance

$283.0K Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.6M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3153%
November 3036%

$1.3M Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

24%chance

$172.4K Vol.2 months left

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3130%
October 319%

$41.7K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)63%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$898.1K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202642%
November 30, 202632%

$703.4K Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$188.5K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+94%
960-9994%

$368.0K Vol.daily

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp73%
Stefan Evers22%

$233.2K Vol.

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Paxton 0-3%32%
Talarico 0-3%26%

$28.6K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov14%

$1.2M Vol.

TN-04 House Election Winner

$103.2K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula66%
Flavio Bolsonaro35%

$69.0K Vol.

MO-04 House Election Winner

Mark Alford (R)97%
Jordan Herrera (D)3%

$72.8K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3122%
November 3017%

$523.9K Vol.

Minnesota Attorney General Election Winner

Keith Ellison (D)76%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)24%

$16.7K Vol.

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat90%
PSD7%

$342.5K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

140-15931%
120-13927%

$44.5K Vol.daily

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 318%

$346.5K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen88%
David Lisnard4%

$13.3K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.0+92%

$9.9K Vol.weekly

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?

47–49 and 193–20723%
≤46 and ≤19222%

$74.1K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

40-6445%
65-8934%

$13.0K Vol.daily

Oklahoma Governor Election Winner

Mike Mazzei (R)90%
Cyndi Munson (D)9%

$43.5K Vol.

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3121%
October 319%

$17.4K Vol.

CA-37 House Election Winner (Individual)

Sydney Kamlager-Dove96%
Samantha Mota3%

$43.8K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$101.0K Vol.17 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

5%chance

$563.0K Vol.2 months left

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together70%
The Democrats18%

$18.8K Vol.

Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

December 31>99%
October 3197%

$14.1K Vol.monthly

TX-35 House Election Winner

Johnny Garcia (D)59%
Carlos De La Cruz (R)41%

$52.7K Vol.

Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202721%

$575.2K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Margin of Victory

Turek 0-3%35%
Hinson 0-3%26%

$19.5K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Ofer Winter16%

$38.5K Vol.

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3186%
October 3131%

$461.3K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
Mike Collins (R)4%

$230.3K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Peltola 3-6%38%
Peltola 0-3%34%

$15.3K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory

Graham 0-5%33%
Graham 5-10%29%

$18.0K Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

$357.6K Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD86%
UDMR21%

$54.2K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)57%
Josh Turek (D)43%

$877.6K Vol.

Closest Senate Race?

Texas17%
Kansas15%

$25.0K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

Other39%
PSD28%

$62.9K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

GA-10 House Election Winner

Houston Gaines (R)96%
Pam Delancy (D)2%

$55.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2444%
25-2926%

$501.7K Vol.

New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Lee Shu-chuan51%
Su Chiao-hui50%

$106.9K Vol.

IL-05 House Election Winner

Mike Quigley (D)97%
Tommy Hanson (R)2%

$35.0K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by...?

December 3187%
October 3113%

$28.2K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen90%
Édouard Philippe46%

$354.8K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula67%
Flavio Bolsonaro34%

$63.1K Vol.

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3189%
October 3168%

$881.5K Vol.

FL-08 House Election Winner

$59.9K Vol.

TX-27 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%31%
Republican 15-20%28%

$12.8K Vol.

TN-05 House Election Winner

Charlie Hatcher (R)95%
Chaz Molder (D)5%

$71.7K Vol.

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19024%
205-20920%

$324.9K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3135%
October 3110%

$6.6M Vol.

WI-05 House Election Winner

$93.2K Vol.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Rahm Emanuel24%
Gavin Newsom14%

$1.2M Vol.

Wyoming Governor Election Margin of Victory

Republican 30-35%27%
Republican 40-45%20%

$35.0K Vol.

TX-15 House Election Winner

Bobby Pulido (D)83%
Monica De La Cruz (R)19%

$57.8K Vol.

Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner

Miloš Vučević28%
Ana Brnabić22%

$79.9K Vol.

Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory

Moody 9-12%25%
Moody 6-9%24%

$18.9K Vol.

Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

30%chance

$13.6K Vol.2 months left

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$501.8K Vol.2 months left

Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Trump out as President before 2027?

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?