Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
- December 31, 202828%
- December 31, 202713%
$6.0M Vol.

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Brazil Presidential Election

$183.5M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

320-33940%
340-35932%

$2.9M Vol.weekly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen47%
Édouard Philippe20%

$151.5M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.8M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.6M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.9M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%
Benjamin Netanyahu28%

$46.6M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$628.9K Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1599%
October 1697%

$13.2M Vol.monthly

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3160%
December 3137%

$40.4M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio14%

$711.7M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.6M Vol.16 days left

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

340-35914%
320-33913%

$530.9K Vol.weekly

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$352.9K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar61%
Likud40%

$790.6K Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.7M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%

$1.4M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 311%

$73.5M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3130%
October 319%

$252.7K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

8%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.6M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

13%chance

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi36%
Steve Witkoff35%

$1.5M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu91%
Ilie Bolojan1%

$5.3M Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)53%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$422.7K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson18%

$10.2M Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$170.9K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

260-27912%
240-25911%

$105.0K Vol.weekly

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro68%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3145%
November 3032%

$1.4M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$278.5K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$640.5K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

5%chance

$829.8K Vol.46 days left

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together70%
The Democrats18%

$61.1K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202747%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

65-8940%
90-11426%

$61.2K Vol.daily

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an63%
Puma Shen37%

$1.1M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro79%
Lula21%

$92.1K Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1898%

$1.9M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo81%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.9M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$17.0M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić70%
Ilija Srdanović20%

$1.3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

$503.7K Vol.8 months left

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$252.2K Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)29%

$1.7M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202625%

$733.7K Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

$376.9K Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei54%
Axel Kicillof31%

$862.9K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$297.5K Vol.

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman54%
Karen Bass47%

$15.3M Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2443%
25-2926%

$523.3K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

6%chance

$848.6K Vol.16 days left

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3122%
October 319%

$379.3K Vol.

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)96%
Maria Jukic (D)2%

$96.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$112.0K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%33%
Below 4.6%11%

$368.9K Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$241.9K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay90%
Pee-wee / Peewee81%

$15.1K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3134%
November 3027%

$349.9K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen87%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%

$28.6K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$62.2K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova88%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3121%

$1.8M Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202739%

$2.0M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$445.9K Vol.Ended

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$271.4K Vol.

CA-23 House Election Winner

$101.7K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202736%

$2.9M Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$794.6K Vol.

MD-01 House Election Winner

Andy Harris (R)88%
Dan Schwartz (D)13%

$88.2K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3041%
October 319%

$227.9K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)92%
Scott Colom (D)10%

$154.2K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%chance

$834.7K Vol.2 months left

NE-02 House Election Winner

$60.5K Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202712%

$693.3K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula69%
Flavio Bolsonaro32%

$84.7K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula67%
Flavio Bolsonaro28%

$74.4K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$620.8K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby20%

$163.3K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3133%
October 315%

$6.7M Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$59.0K Vol.9 hours left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3058%
October 3138%

$118.1K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)90%
Zach Lahn (R)12%

$248.4K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$403.4K Vol.2 months left

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon37%
Édouard Philippe30%

$15.8K Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$198.3K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

19%chance

$180.9K Vol.2 months left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula83%
Flavio Bolsonaro17%

$50.5K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

UT-02 House Election Winner

Blake Moore (R)95%
Peter Crosby (D)5%

$31.0K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$60.7K Vol.

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)95%
Colby Watson (D)4%

$57.5K Vol.

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund76%
Sven Schulze3%

$469.0K Vol.

MI-05 House Election Winner

$37.8K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$90.0K Vol.

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

7%chance

$302.9K Vol.2 months left

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%55%
Remain 60–80%25%

$32.9K Vol.

TX-22 House Election Winner

$41.2K Vol.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

26%chance

$3.9M Vol.19 days left

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

3%chance

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

December 3176%
October 313%

$139.4K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20268%

$262.7K Vol.

What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 14)

35%chance

$498.1 Vol.Ended

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD94%
UDMR14%

$71.5K Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

120-13941%
140-15924%

$10.0K Vol.daily

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

10%chance

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

Next Romania PM appointed by…?

December 3195%
October 3191%

$61.8K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Jon Ossoff44%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez40%

$71.4K Vol.

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$554.7K Vol.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

94%chance

$30.3K Vol.9 days left

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas <5%13%
Ruas 20%+12%

$32.0K Vol.

Which party will win white women in the midterms?

Democrats75%
Republicans20%

$35.3K Vol.

WI-05 House Election Winner

$98.9K Vol.

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3194%
October 3190%

$889.6K Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

27%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic64%
Republican35%

$2.5M Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP85%
PSOE16%

$108.7K Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

7%chance

$2.1M Vol.2 months left

FL-28 House Election Winner

Carlos Giménez (R)95%
Phil Ehr (D)5%

$65.1K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Édouard Philippe38%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon32%

$15.2K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

12%chance

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Thom Tillis11%
Mike Lee9%

$312.4K Vol.

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

$85.5K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+27%
180-19924%

$31.2K Vol.daily

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)59%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$889.3K Vol.

NY-03 House Election Winner

Tom Suozzi (D)88%
Mike LiPetri (R)11%

$47.5K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Mardi Gras60%
Dad / Daddy52%

$10.9K Vol.weekly

CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)

Aisha Wahab88%
Melissa Hernandez9%

$30.7K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
120-13919%

$11.2K Vol.daily

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S24%
S + MP18%

$94.5K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%62%
Iotova 10-20%22%

$17.6K Vol.

TN-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 9-12%23%
Republican 3-6%18%

$17.6K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

20%chance

$510.4K Vol.2 months left

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

The Democrats55%
Yashar55%

$59.7K Vol.

NYC Mayor # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

20-3996%
40-593%

$7.2K Vol.daily

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3162%
Qatar18%

$159.2K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202754%
Susie Wiles9%

$110.7K Vol.annual

OH-01 House Election Winner

Greg Landsman (D)93%
Eric Conroy (R)7%

$45.4K Vol.

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 317%
October 311%

$13.1K Vol.

TX-06 House Election Winner

Jake Ellzey (R)96%
Danny Minton (D)2%

$87.1K Vol.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

3%chance

$769.2K Vol.2 months left

MN-02 House Election Winner

Matt Little (D)94%
Eric Pratt (R)6%

$63.4K Vol.

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202716%

$716.9K Vol.

Serbia Election: Student List Vote Share?

35-40%28%
40-45%27%

$22.8K Vol.

Who will be the next US Ambassador to Greece?

Nicole Malliotakis22%
Geoffrey Pyatt19%

$3.4K Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$419.6K Vol.

Wisconsin Governor Election Margin of Victory

Crowley 3-6%20%
Crowley 6-9%19%

$22.0K Vol.

Khamenei # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

<595%
5-92%

$17.8K Vol.daily

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

58%chance

$4.2K Vol.12 days left

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)63%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$907.4K Vol.

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Deb Haaland (D)93%
Gregg Hull (R)8%

$69.1K Vol.

CO-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%20%
Republican 3-6%17%

$26.6K Vol.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Rahm Emanuel38%
Gavin Newsom14%

$1.2M Vol.

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

38%chance

$30.2K Vol.2 months left

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

28%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Su Chiao-hui51%
Lee Shu-chuan48%

$111.1K Vol.

NY-21 House Election Winner

$97.0K Vol.

Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?

October 3121%
October 151%

$14.1K Vol.

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp82%
Stefan Evers16%

$238.8K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$300.2K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$63.9K Vol.

New York Attorney General Election Winner

$12.8K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

6%chance

$231.0K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

<2.75%53%
4.25%+24%

$5.8K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3130%
October 314%

$53.5K Vol.

GA-09 House Election Winner

Andrew Clyde (R)96%
Caitlyn Gegen (D)3%

$45.2K Vol.

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?

5%chance

$38.8K Vol.2 months left

Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?

48%chance

$2.9K Vol.45 days left

Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?

20%chance

$7.4K Vol.1 year left

Florida Senate Election Winner

Ashley Moody (R)91%
Angie Nixon (D)9%

$227.3K Vol.

NE-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 40-45%28%
Republican 50-55%22%

$23.2K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
Mike Collins (R)4%

$233.5K Vol.

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-869%
<712%

$14.0K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Kaitlan Collins88%

$134.3K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Ursula von der Leyen98%
Friedrich Merz97%

$213.0K Vol.monthly

Democratic Senate odds on October 16?

62-64%70%
60-62%13%

$8.2K Vol.weekly

Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?

↓ 7%36%
↑ 12%14%

$185.7K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.5%25%
4.25%20%

$23.2K Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3071%
October 3162%

$9.0K Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
June 30, 202713%

$723.0K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

37.2+>99%
36.8+>99%

$18.3K Vol.weekly

Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory

El-Sayed 3-6%28%
El-Sayed 0-3%21%

$9.7K Vol.

CO-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%21%
Republican 3-6%21%

$16.1K Vol.

Next Premier of Quebec

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon>99%
Christine Fréchette<1%

$414.1K Vol.

British Columbia General Election Winner

Conservative79%
NDP21%

$30.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen13%

$42.0K Vol.

RI-01 House Election Winner

Gabe Amo (D)>99%
Kellie Keenan (R)<1%

$46.1K Vol.

SC-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%34%
Republican 15-20%30%

$24.9K Vol.

NY-14 House Election Winner

$60.3K Vol.

Surrey Mayoral Election

Brenda Locke83%
Linda Annis14%

$38.7K Vol.

Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner

Josh Shapiro (D)98%
Stacy Garrity (R)2%

$56.8K Vol.

Next Greek Parliamentary Election: Party Winner

ND89%
ELAS7%

$21.4K Vol.

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by...?

December 3187%
October 3118%

$23.1K Vol.

NV-02 House Election Winner

$40.7K Vol.

NC-11 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 3-6%22%
Democrat 0-3%14%

$15.2K Vol.

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner

David Crowley (D)81%
Tom Tiffany (R)20%

$717.4K Vol.

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Netanyahu out by...?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 14)

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

US strike on Colombia by...?