Politics

100 events

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1597%
- October 3182%
$12.1M Vol.monthly

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US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 1599%
October 1894%

$1.8M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Jon Ossoff15%

$1.3B Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election

$180.9M Vol.

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202717%

$3.9M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen43%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.3M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

220-23928%
240-25928%

$1.4M Vol.weekly

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep62%
R Senate, D House28%

$22.8M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 311%

$73.3M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$847.9K Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3143%

$39.7M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$201.3K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?

65-8965%
40-6429%

$234.6K Vol.daily

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.2M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$16.7M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio15%

$711.3M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.9M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$715.9M Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202822%
December 31, 202711%

$660.5K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$148.4K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%66%
4.0%23%

$7.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson15%

$10.1M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.7M Vol.2 months left

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

220-23917%
200-21916%

$166.8K Vol.weekly

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)65%
Ken Paxton (R)36%

$3.5M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić71%
Ilija Srdanović17%

$1.2M Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$403.4K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu75%
Sorin Grindeanu9%

$5.0M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.3M Vol.18 days left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$77.1K Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$218.3K Vol.21 days left

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3130%
October 318%

$58.6K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez15%

$1.8M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$163.3K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202766%

$8.6M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202741%
Netanyahu - Israel PM33%

$1.0M Vol.annual

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$115.4K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3119%
October 316%

$258.8K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$318.1K Vol.Ended

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.8M Vol.

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)88%
Zach Lahn (R)12%

$196.8K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Pipeline96%
Healthcare96%

$34.2K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

12%chance

$195.8K Vol.18 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

99%chance

$662.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202750%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3142%
November 3038%

$320.7K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar59%
Likud42%

$655.9K Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
June 30, 202713%

$716.3K Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$767.5K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$45.7K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow74%
Brad Bradford25%

$349.0K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

TX-04 House Election Winner

Pat Fallon (R)96%
Jason Pearce (D)1%

$78.8K Vol.

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202716%

$711.1K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3114%
October 315%

$22.2K Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an66%
Puma Shen34%

$892.4K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+90%
960-9995%

$364.1K Vol.daily

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

32%chance

$546.6K Vol.9 months left

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4740%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby19%

$151.0K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200-21917%
220-23916%

$17.4K Vol.weekly

$65.4K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3069%
October 3150%

$101.3K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Thom Tillis10%
Catherine Cortez Masto10%

$307.3K Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

5%chance

$282.9K Vol.2 months left

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$607.2K Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)30%

$1.6M Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Arizona Governor Election Winner

Katie Hobbs (D)89%
Andy Biggs (R)12%

$132.0K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202645%
November 30, 202630%

$691.3K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

200+26%
140-15923%

$36.3K Vol.daily

House favorite on November 2 wins the election?

92%chance

$24.2K Vol.21 days left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei88%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)70%
Sam Forstag (D)32%

$77.0K Vol.

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)97%
Colby Watson (D)3%

$45.1K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$54.7K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3153%
November 3037%

$1.3M Vol.

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?

47–49 and 193–20724%
≤46 and ≤19222%

$65.4K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202828%
December 31, 202720%

$202.6K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$92.4K Vol.18 days left

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)40%

$1.2M Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3153%
Qatar19%

$154.7K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 5-10%17%
Ruas 10-15%13%

$23.6K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman77%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China78%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3117%
October 319%

$9.4K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

23%chance

$459.2K Vol.2 months left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance

$762.7K Vol.48 days left

Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

House favorite on November 2 wins the election?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?