World

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.0K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$283.0K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$210.9K Vol.annual

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$380.3K Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change75%
25 bps increase24%

$118.9K Vol.annual

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$39.1K Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%46%
Remain 60–80%33%

$25.8K Vol.

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

$563.0K Vol.2 months left

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202717%
December 31, 20269%

$257.1K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$50.3K Vol.1 day left

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3190%
October 3183%

$882.1K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202733%

$2.9M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen88%
David Lisnard4%

$14.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$60.7K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$228.3K Vol.2 months left

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Yisrael Beiteinu53%
The Democrats51%

$55.9K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin81%
Mohammed bin Salman79%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov14%

$1.2M Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas <5%16%
Ruas 20%+11%

$27.2K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon45%
Édouard Philippe38%

$10.1K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon41%
Édouard Philippe24%

$7.5K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2836%
Tally Gotliv16%

$49.0K Vol.

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

42%chance

$53.0K Vol.2 months left

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%48%
4.50-4.99%22%

$162.7K Vol.

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202733%
December 31, 20269%

$2.4K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan18%
Germany16%

$680.9K Vol.annual

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

French election called by...?

$10.1K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

<2.75%40%
2.75-3.25%35%

$3.1K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

26-2726%
22-2325%

$19.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Blue and White vote share?

<0.75%52%
0.75-1.25%44%

$5.3K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

AfD60%
Grüne27%

$59.0K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<475%
4-618%

$10.9K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha17%

$45.4K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout

78-80%60%
76-78%18%

$12.0K Vol.

Macron out by...?

$534.5K Vol.2 months left

$39.9K Vol.2 months left

Spain General Election Winner

PP87%
PSOE14%

$102.7K Vol.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

30%chance

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%54%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$113.6K Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$273.6K Vol.2 months left

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

92%chance

$173.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: The Joint List vote share?

6.5-7.5%35%
5.5-6.5%30%

$2.9K Vol.

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?

6-7%41%
5-6%28%

$4.3K Vol.

Federal District Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Celina 20-25%41%
Celina 10-15%34%

$4.3K Vol.

Tocantins Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Vicentinho 4%+33%
Vicentinho <4%28%

$3.4K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Allyson 3-6%24%
Cadu wins23%

$9.0K Vol.

Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner

$7.3K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

74%chance

$7.1K Vol.5 months left

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

$15.4K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$24.5K Vol.2 months left

Vancouver-Langara British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Jaime Stein76%
Sunita Dhir18%

$2.4K Vol.

Estonia Parliamentary Election Winner

Isamaa63%
Centre Party28%

$974.9 Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

19%chance

$6.9K Vol.2 months left

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$26.3K Vol.8 months left

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-869%
9-1014%

$11.2K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%50%
Iotova 10-20%31%

$13.8K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$15.7K Vol.8 months left

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$82.7K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen13%

$42.7K Vol.

Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...?

December 313%
October 31<1%

$7.1K Vol.

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

6-7%36%
5-6%36%

$6.7K Vol.

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

63%chance

$2.1K Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?

15%chance

$11.8K Vol.8 months left

Israel Election: Together vote share?

9-11%39%
7-9%19%

$3.0K Vol.

Israel Election: Joint List # of seats?

6-740%
8-934%

$4.5K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

New pandemic in 2026?

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Paul Choi51%
David Xie39%

$1.4K Vol.

Acre Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Mailza 20%+42%
Mailza 10-15%38%

$4.3K Vol.

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

$167.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.3K Vol.2 months left

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Ra'am96%
RZP-Zehut86%

$14.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2840%
Yoav Ben-Tzur20%

$14.2K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$395.2K Vol.2 months left

Vancouver-Yaletown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Margareta Dovgal48%
Terry Yung30%

$3.7K Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE41%
Turkey23%

$33.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

17%chance

$6.6K Vol.13 days left

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland15%
Lebanon8%

$1.8M Vol.

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

$235.0K Vol.2 months left

$43.2K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

1%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

9%chance

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Li Xi5%
Ding Xuexiang5%

$251.5K Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

466%
515%

$7.6M Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$862.2K Vol.2 months left

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

December 31, 202620%
October 31, 202612%

$362.9K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Latvia?

Andris Kulbergs98%
Viktors Valainis1%

$12.8K Vol.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202729%
December 31, 20265%

$33.4K Vol.

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase21%

$9.9K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change44%

$93.8K Vol.annual

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

85%chance

$350.0 Vol.46 days left

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$378.5K Vol.5 days left

Surrey-Fleetwood British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Garry Purewal49%
Jagrup Brar35%

$2.2K Vol.

Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Kevin Acton78%
Harwinder Sandhu18%

$5.4K Vol.

Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Harj Dhaliwal35%
Jessie Sunner32%

$3.5K Vol.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

SDP BiH84%
HDZ BiH8%

$8.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

10+34%
8-932%

$8.0K Vol.

North Island British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Anna Kindy60%
Sara Lopez34%

$1.5K Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$567.0K Vol.2 months left

El Salvador Legislative Election: 3rd Place

PDC28%
PCN27%

$6.6K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

<1%chance

$23.7K Vol.17 days left

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

SPD90%
Grüne78%

$20.0K Vol.

Israel Election: Religious Zionist Party–Zehut vote share?

5-6%49%
6%+32%

$4.4K Vol.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

14%chance

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine election held by...?

$239.2K Vol.2 months left

Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner

$134.9K Vol.

El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place

PCN39%
ARENA25%

$10.2K Vol.

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

$182.4K Vol.2 months left

Courtenay-Comox British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Brennan Day67%
Will Cole-Hamilton25%

$1.8K Vol.

Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?

$21.4K Vol.2 months left

Espírito Santo Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Pazolini 20%+33%
Pazolini 5-10%27%

$4.2K Vol.

Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Aziz 6-10%38%
Aziz 15%+35%

$5.9K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?

91%chance

$3.0K Vol.11 days left

Kelowna Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Kristina Loewen68%
Loyal Wooldridge27%

$2.0K Vol.

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

$191.8K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?

4-5%41%
2.5-3.25%29%

$3.5K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

$448.4K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change96%
25 bps hike4%

$38.6K Vol.annual

Israel Election: Shas vote share?

6-7%44%
<6%32%

$3.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?

4.5-5.5%33%
5.5-6.5%26%

$3.7K Vol.

Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share?

4-4.75%46%
3.25-4%18%

$5.0K Vol.

Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Garry Thind58%
Garry Begg28%

$1.7K Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

$218.6K Vol.2 months left

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$174.1K Vol.

Surrey City Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Zeeshan Wahla43%
Amna Shah28%

$2.1K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

$169.0K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu # of seats?

8-951%
6-722%

$5.7K Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$65.9K Vol.2 months left

Coquitlam-Burke Mountain British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Ryan Peterson66%
Jodie Wickens35%

$964.3 Vol.

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

532%
428%

$9.2K Vol.

Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

20%chance

$3.9K Vol.2 years left

Richmond-Steveston British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Gordon Zhang77%
Bruce Kong19%

$3.4K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (Invested)

$34.2K Vol.

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Italy10%
New Zealand9%

$762.4K Vol.

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

$535.2K Vol.2 months left

Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?

40-4383%
36-3914%

$55.9K Vol.

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0047%
1600.00–1699.9936%

$22.4K Vol.monthly

Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

SPD98%
Grüne95%

$21.4K Vol.

China coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20264%

$163.4K Vol.

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%66%
25-29.9%30%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase57%
No change36%

$38.9K Vol.annual

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

$248.9K Vol.2 months left

Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?

55-5970%
60-6421%

$30.9K Vol.

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Lisa Beare42%
Doug Morneau35%

$2.9K Vol.

Prime Minister of Australia after next election?

Anthony Albanese37%
Pauline Hanson24%

$33.3K Vol.

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

$92.3K Vol.2 months left

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

24%chance

$1.6K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

7%chance

$10.9K Vol.2 months left

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$405.7K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will host an F1 race in 2026?

Qatar75%
UAE27%

$522.2 Vol.

Israel Election: The Democrats vote share?

7-8%34%
6-7%27%

$2.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1630%
11-1325%

$6.8K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

$251.6K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$15.4K Vol.1 year left

Will NATO countries clash with each other by...?

December 31, 202716%
December 31, 20263%

$63.5K Vol.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

SNSD95%
DF3%

$11.0K Vol.

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

1600.00+46%
1550.00–1599.9932%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?

9%chance

$153.2 Vol.2 months left

Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

19%chance

$414.5 Vol.2 months left

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

$144.3K Vol.2 months left

Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

$161.0K Vol.

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

$115.8K Vol.2 months left

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?

61%chance

$31.1 Vol.32 days left

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

$77.6K Vol.2 months left

Any G20 leader out in 2026?

$225.4K Vol.2 months left

$201.2 Vol.2 months left

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

12%chance

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

$449.2K Vol.2 months left

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

$71.0K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Unity vote share?

<0.5%96%
0.5-0.75%2%

$5.4K Vol.

El Salvador Presidential Election Winner

$2.3K Vol.

Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?

PQ 10-1965%
PQ 20-2934%

$7.4K Vol.

Will the TFFF reach $10 billion in 2026?

20%chance

$1.0K Vol.3 months left

Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by...?

$5.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

December 314%
October 31<1%

$118.0K Vol.

Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?

Israel15%
Sudan10%

$2.3K Vol.

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?

$238.0 Vol.2 months left

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?