All markets
Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31?
84%chance
- Yes84.2%
Outcomes
- Yes84%
84.4¢ per share
- No16%
15.7¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 84.2¢Spread 24.1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 72.1¢ | 81.78 | $58.96 |
| 68.1¢ | 118.44 | $80.66 |
| 67.2¢ | 13.19 | $8.86 |
| 67¢ | 140 | $93.80 |
| 30.2¢ | 5 | $1.51 |
| 16¢ | 10 | $1.60 |
| 15¢ | 250 | $37.50 |
| 14¢ | 55 | $7.70 |
| 11¢ | 426.14 | $46.88 |
| 7.3¢ | 7.71 | $0.56 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 96.2¢ | 26.32 | $25.32 |
| 96.3¢ | 5 | $4.81 |
| 96.7¢ | 5 | $4.84 |
| 97.4¢ | 5 | $4.87 |
| 97.8¢ | 19.77 | $19.34 |
| 97.9¢ | 85 | $83.22 |
| 98¢ | 300 | $294.00 |
| 98.3¢ | 5 | $4.92 |
| 98.7¢ | 10.32 | $10.19 |
| 98.8¢ | 30 | $29.64 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.