Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
- December 31, 202827%
- December 31, 202713%
$6.0M Vol.

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Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

320-33926%
340-35923%

$2.3M Vol.weekly

Brazil Presidential Election

$181.9M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 1697%

$13.0M Vol.monthly

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.4M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.5M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot47%
Benjamin Netanyahu28%

$46.5M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.9M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.6M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3160%
December 3138%

$40.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu92%
Ilie Bolojan1%

$5.3M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.2M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

300-31913%
280-29911%

$395.3K Vol.weekly

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 315%
October 31<1%

$73.4M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff39%
Jared Kushner38%

$1.5M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.7M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3146%
November 3032%

$1.4M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$441.5K Vol.Ended

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.5M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

8%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3016%

$596.5K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

13%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić69%
Ilija Srdanović21%

$1.3M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3137%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)53%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$418.2K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.4M Vol.16 days left

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$234.1K Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)5%

$309.2K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro68%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202745%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$192.4K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$298.0K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?

Shit / Ass>99%
Russia / Ukraine>99%

$37.8K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23914%
200-21914%

$62.4K Vol.weekly

NY-23 House Election Winner

Nick Langworthy (R)96%
Aaron Gies (D)2%

$87.8K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)78%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$558.9K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together83%
The Democrats8%

$49.6K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow72%
Brad Bradford28%

$378.7K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland16%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$261.0K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$792.9K Vol.46 days left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$260.7K Vol.19 days left

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$234.4K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.2K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD71%
Other12%

$87.2K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202820%
December 31, 202713%

$682.8K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Jon Ossoff51%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez40%

$70.8K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

$497.6K Vol.8 months left

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)95%
Doug Chapin (D)3%

$90.0K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff96%
Kaitlan Collins89%

$132.6K Vol.monthly

NH-02 House Election Winner

$41.7K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

40-6435%
65-8935%

$30.9K Vol.daily

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Montana?

Coal / Diesel91%
Job 13+ times80%

$18.8K Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.6M Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3126%
October 319%

$363.6K Vol.

KS-04 House Election Winner

Ron Estes (R)95%
Katy Tyndell (D)6%

$105.5K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$785.0K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3135%
November 3032%

$340.3K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar65%
Likud33%

$675.1K Vol.

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Deb Haaland (D)94%
Gregg Hull (R)5%

$68.0K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$180.0K Vol.

$10.1M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

PA-16 House Election Winner

Mike Kelly (R)96%
Justin Wagner (D)4%

$73.6K Vol.

TX-08 House Election Winner

$54.9K Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD91%
UDMR20%

$69.2K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%60%
≥ 4.5%23%

$7.1M Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$130.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2442%
25-2926%

$516.3K Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$419.1K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3049%
October 3112%

$217.6K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3126%
October 315%

$52.1K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen87%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon8%

$26.0K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$97.0K Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%56%
Remain 60–80%27%

$32.3K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202721%
December 31, 20268%

$262.7K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$57.6K Vol.22 hours left

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)95%
Colby Watson (D)4%

$57.4K Vol.

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3114%
October 316%

$22.3K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)57%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$886.1K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$380.7K Vol.2 months left

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202735%

$2.9M Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance

$834.4K Vol.2 months left

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

26%chance

$3.9M Vol.19 days left

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+93%
960-9994%

$376.8K Vol.daily

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

$360.8K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

12%chance

$168.4K Vol.2 months left

NE-02 House Election Winner

$59.2K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$110.9K Vol.16 days left

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$618.6K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Paxton 0-3%31%
Talarico 0-3%28%

$30.9K Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.2M Vol.

MO-04 House Election Winner

Mark Alford (R)96%
Jordan Herrera (D)3%

$73.2K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$89.9K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202639%
November 30, 202628%

$712.1K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

No Next Minister by Feb 2833%
Gadi Eizenkot18%

$63.5K Vol.

TX-26 House Election Winner

Brandon Gill (R)97%
Steven Shook (D)2%

$62.4K Vol.

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)96%
Maria Jukic (D)4%

$79.7K Vol.

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman54%
Karen Bass47%

$15.3M Vol.

TX-28 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 6-9%21%
Democrat 9-12%20%

$17.7K Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+19%
180-19918%

$19.0K Vol.daily

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund77%
Sven Schulze3%

$454.8K Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP86%
PSOE14%

$101.1K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Édouard Philippe35%
David Lisnard26%

$5.9K Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

December 3139%
November 3025%

$257.7K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202756%
Pete Hegseth8%

$102.3K Vol.annual

TX-25 House Election Winner

Roger Williams (R)97%
Dione Sims (D)2%

$39.8K Vol.

FL-14 House Election Winner

Kathy Castor (D)68%
Mike Beltran (R)28%

$66.7K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Netanyahu out by...?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?