Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
- December 31, 202827%
- December 31, 202713%
$6.0M Vol.

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Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

320-33931%
300-31928%

$2.5M Vol.weekly

Brazil Presidential Election

$182.0M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.6M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1599%
October 1698%

$13.0M Vol.monthly

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot47%
Benjamin Netanyahu28%

$46.5M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.4M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.4M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3161%
December 3139%

$40.2M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.7M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.9M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.2M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu92%
Ilie Bolojan1%

$5.3M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

300-31913%
320-33913%

$457.0K Vol.weekly

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance48%
Marco Rubio14%

$711.5M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party38%

$6.6M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$269.8K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3016%

$637.2K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

13%chance

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3126%
October 318%

$207.9K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

8%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.7M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202746%
Netanyahu - Israel PM32%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić69%
Ilija Srdanović21%

$1.3M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 315%
October 31<1%

$73.4M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an64%
Puma Shen37%

$1.1M Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)52%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$420.0K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.4M Vol.16 days left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro68%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23914%
240-25914%

$78.9K Vol.weekly

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$195.7K Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)6%

$235.8K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

NY-23 House Election Winner

Nick Langworthy (R)97%
Aaron Gies (D)2%

$87.8K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Montana?

Job 13+ times>99%
Healthcare 3+ times>99%

$35.1K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland13%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3136%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together84%
The Democrats8%

$49.6K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow72%
Brad Bradford28%

$379.8K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202712%

$691.1K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$298.4K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202627%

$732.0K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$250.8K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

65-8933%
40-6428%

$43.4K Vol.daily

$94.0K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$288.2K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD76%
Other7%

$87.9K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

$497.7K Vol.8 months left

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar60%
Likud39%

$679.0K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez17%

$1.8M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$797.1K Vol.46 days left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

11%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$234.5K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson16%

$10.1M Vol.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

93%chance

$29.6K Vol.9 days left

Netanyahu out by...?

39%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2442%
25-2926%

$519.1K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

6%chance

$843.5K Vol.16 days left

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$785.2K Vol.

PA-16 House Election Winner

Mike Kelly (R)96%
Justin Wagner (D)4%

$73.6K Vol.

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)96%
Maria Jukic (D)2%

$95.8K Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$268.3K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3126%
October 319%

$363.7K Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD92%
UDMR18%

$69.3K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen91%
Édouard Philippe44%

$368.3K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3038%
October 3113%

$223.0K Vol.

MD-01 House Election Winner

Andy Harris (R)87%
Dan Schwartz (D)14%

$88.0K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%61%
≥ 4.5%23%

$7.1M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen87%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon7%

$26.0K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3133%
November 3032%

$341.7K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202721%
December 31, 20268%

$262.7K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$380.7K Vol.2 months left

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%56%
Remain 60–80%26%

$32.7K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$97.9K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$130.9K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%chance

$834.6K Vol.2 months left

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202735%

$2.9M Vol.

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman54%
Karen Bass46%

$15.3M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+95%
960-9993%

$379.2K Vol.daily

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

NE-02 House Election Winner

$60.0K Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei54%
Axel Kicillof33%

$851.2K Vol.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$619.3K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$60.7K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

12%chance

$168.4K Vol.2 months left

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)78%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$559.6K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)91%
Scott Colom (D)10%

$152.5K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro74%
Lula28%

$63.4K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3130%
October 315%

$53.2K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$110.9K Vol.16 days left

Next Romania PM appointed by…?

December 3196%
October 3194%

$61.1K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%18%
Below 4.6%6%

$362.9K Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.6M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon39%
Édouard Philippe31%

$15.3K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)63%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$906.7K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov14%

$1.2M Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$58.2K Vol.20 hours left

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3138%

$113.3K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$403.4K Vol.2 months left

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund78%
Sven Schulze3%

$468.1K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Jon Ossoff49%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez39%

$71.0K Vol.

UT-02 House Election Winner

Blake Moore (R)95%
Peter Crosby (D)5%

$31.0K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula84%
Flavio Bolsonaro16%

$50.3K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

37.0+>99%
36.8+>99%

$17.5K Vol.weekly

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$552.4K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$30.1K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

18%chance

$179.7K Vol.2 months left

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson78%
David Eby23%

$160.9K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)95%
Colby Watson (D)4%

$57.5K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Dad / Daddy62%
Mardi Gras60%

$10.9K Vol.weekly

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3195%
October 3190%

$888.6K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$89.9K Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)5%

$309.2K Vol.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

26%chance

$3.9M Vol.19 days left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+26%
120-13919%

$11.1K Vol.daily

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

FL-08 House Election Winner

$59.9K Vol.

TX-27 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%31%
Republican 15-20%30%

$12.8K Vol.

TN-05 House Election Winner

Charlie Hatcher (R)95%
Chaz Molder (D)5%

$71.7K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S + MP + C + V25%
S + MP21%

$86.7K Vol.

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19024%
205-20923%

$324.9K Vol.

NY-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%22%
Republican 3-6%17%

$23.3K Vol.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Rahm Emanuel24%
Gavin Newsom14%

$1.2M Vol.

WI-05 House Election Winner

$93.2K Vol.

TX-15 House Election Winner

Bobby Pulido (D)83%
Monica De La Cruz (R)19%

$57.8K Vol.

Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner

Miloš Vučević30%
Ana Brnabić22%

$79.9K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3135%
October 3110%

$6.6M Vol.

New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Su Chiao-hui52%
Lee Shu-chuan49%

$102.2K Vol.

Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

30%chance

$13.6K Vol.2 months left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Flavio Bolsonaro52%
Lula47%

$57.8K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$501.8K Vol.2 months left

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

Netanyahu out by...?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?