Geopolitics

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3138%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$45.7K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3114%
October 315%

$22.2K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro72%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3025%

$1.8M Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$369.1K Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3069%
October 3150%

$101.3K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3178%
November 3060%

$524.3K Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$282.9K Vol.2 months left

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3122%
October 315%

$7.4M Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?

25-2940%
30-3429%

$50.3K Vol.weekly

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

Donald Trump9%
Yulia Navalnaya8%

$15.0K Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202718%
December 3111%

$4.8M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202643%
November 30, 202633%

$702.0K Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$3.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3153%
November 3036%

$1.3M Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3124%
November 3017%

$522.4K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin79%
Mohammed bin Salman77%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$100.8K Vol.18 days left

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3185%
October 3132%

$461.2K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$228.2K Vol.2 months left

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$145.8K Vol.2 months left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 318%

$343.4K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner42%
Steve Witkoff42%

$1.3M Vol.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela18%
Kuwait8%

$904.3K Vol.

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3166%
October 1556%

$19.5K Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka36%
Kramatorsk9%

$1.7M Vol.

Turkey military action against Yemen by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$5.8K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$764.8K Vol.48 days left

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2840%
Ofer Winter17%

$35.7K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$50.6K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202622%
October 31, 20267%

$114.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202756%
March 31, 202738%

$401.7K Vol.

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

341%
234%

$25.2K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

23%chance

$461.0K Vol.2 months left

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

October 3173%
November 3068%

$4.4K Vol.

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3165%
October 1560%

$13.6K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3113%
October 315%

$86.5K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

17%chance

$502.7K Vol.2 months left

Trump out as President before 2027?

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3164%
October 2013%

$3.8K Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz93%
Ursula von der Leyen92%

$209.6K Vol.monthly

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$825.8K Vol.18 days left

Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?

December 3127%
November 3018%

$3.4K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3115%
October 156%

$39.2K Vol.

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Xiaomi21%
DeepSeek19%

$126.2K Vol.

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 315%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$557.2K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 595%
October 1195%

$12.3K Vol.monthly

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by...?

December 3136%
October 3120%

$2.8K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

1%chance

$23.4K Vol.18 days left

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.2M Vol.

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 3112%
October 315%

$2.6K Vol.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Germany15%
Japan14%

$680.5K Vol.annual

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 317%
October 154%

$22.0K Vol.

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

$120.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$352.3K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3182%
November 3075%

$390.9K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$174.0K Vol.

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1578%
October 1662%

$255.4K Vol.monthly

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen13%

$42.0K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

81%chance

$823.6K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

190-20937%
170-18928%

$5.1K Vol.weekly

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 1185%
October 485%

$843.6K Vol.monthly

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3127%
October 3113%

$63.8K Vol.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

$532.9K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman48%
Dario Amodei46%

$51.5K Vol.monthly

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 3098%
November 1585%

$8.4K Vol.

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-869%
9-1022%

$10.4K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2928%
<2023%

$5.2K Vol.weekly

Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?

November 3060%
October 3147%

$11.7K Vol.

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

$281.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?

19%chance

$34.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?

27%chance

$1.8K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Kuwait10%
Egypt10%

$79.8K Vol.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$421.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?

14%chance

$65.0K Vol.2 months left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

$255.9K Vol.2 months left

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

2%chance

EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?

December 3193%
October 3183%

$6.4K Vol.monthly

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3125%
October 318%

$329.3K Vol.

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

38%chance

$18.7K Vol.2 months left

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3133%
October 3117%

$92.0K Vol.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

8%chance

$154.3K Vol.2 months left

Russia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?

$830.3 Vol.18 days left

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 313%

$559.3K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

$637.4K Vol.2 months left

Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?

December 3115%
October 315%

$5.0K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<459%
4-639%

$9.1K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

$42.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

8%chance

$43.5K Vol.18 days left

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

24%chance

$58.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3139%
October 1515%

$131.6K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?

November 1576%
October 3147%

$5.5K Vol.monthly

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

September 2979%
September 2675%

$213.0K Vol.monthly

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

November 3078%
October 3171%

$9.1K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?

190-20937%
210-22931%

$7.4K Vol.weekly

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

$6.9K Vol.18 days left

Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

18-20%46%
<16%34%

$5.0K Vol.

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

March 31, 202763%
December 3135%

$68.3K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

October 3123%
October 1516%

$9.4K Vol.

Ukraine election called by...?

$746.8K Vol.2 months left

$97.5K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 598%
October 895%

$63.2K Vol.monthly

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

10%chance

EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...?

December 3118%
October 31<1%

$3.3K Vol.

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3169%
November 3068%

$39.3K Vol.

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

10%chance

$191.7K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1632%
11-1328%

$6.8K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland16%
Kuwait7%

$1.7M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2839%
Yoav Ben-Tzur18%

$13.7K Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$272.2K Vol.2 months left

Syrian troops enter Yemen by...?

December 319%
October 314%

$4.6K Vol.

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

$133.9K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2326%
24-2519%

$17.1K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$8.7K Vol.8 months left

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE43%
Turkey21%

$32.6K Vol.

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan42%
Rafael Grossi18%

$222.6K Vol.

Israel military action against Syria by...?

November 3039%
October 3118%

$84.4K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Li Xi7%
Ding Xuexiang5%

$251.1K Vol.

Israel military action against Iraq by...?

39%chance

$2.2K Vol.17 days left

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

10%chance

$155.6K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

16%chance

$271.7K Vol.2 months left

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$8.2K Vol.

Turkish troops enter Yemen by...?

December 319%
October 315%

$5.0K Vol.

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

28%chance

$33.5K Vol.2 months left

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

$337.4K Vol.2 months left

NATO dissolves before 2027?

1%chance

$125.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

23%chance

$92.2K Vol.2 months left

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

$63.3K Vol.2 months left

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

$188.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

March 31, 202724%
December 3110%

$254.8K Vol.

How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?

259%
121%

$5.3K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.0M Vol.

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

16%chance

$6.5K Vol.18 days left

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 3114%
October 31<1%

$407.0K Vol.

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?