All markets
Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?
16%chance
- Yes15.3%
Outcomes
- Yes16%
16.1¢ per share
- No84%
83.9¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 17.9¢Spread 7.2¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 14.3¢ | 20.1 | $2.87 |
| 12.5¢ | 20 | $2.50 |
| 12¢ | 20 | $2.40 |
| 10.5¢ | 19.04 | $2.00 |
| 10.2¢ | 88 | $8.98 |
| 6.2¢ | 6.31 | $0.39 |
| 6.1¢ | 30 | $1.83 |
| 5.1¢ | 5 | $0.26 |
| 3.6¢ | 60 | $2.16 |
| 3.5¢ | 114.66 | $4.01 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 21.5¢ | 20 | $4.30 |
| 21.8¢ | 20.1 | $4.38 |
| 23.7¢ | 84 | $19.91 |
| 33.6¢ | 5.01 | $1.68 |
| 33.8¢ | 10.57 | $3.57 |
| 68.8¢ | 40 | $27.52 |
| 70¢ | 55.97 | $39.18 |
| 90.9¢ | 5.91 | $5.37 |
| 97.9¢ | 7.13 | $6.98 |
| 98¢ | 100 | $98.00 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.