Geopolitics

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3064%
October 3144%

$104.9K Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3128%
October 317%

$169.0K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$369.1K Vol.2 months left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$776.6K Vol.48 days left

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$283.0K Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3120%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202718%
December 3111%

$4.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3153%
November 3036%

$1.3M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3178%
November 3060%

$526.6K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202642%
November 30, 202632%

$703.4K Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$3.5M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3122%
November 3017%

$523.9K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 318%

$346.5K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$101.0K Vol.17 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Ofer Winter16%

$38.5K Vol.

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3186%
October 3131%

$461.3K Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela18%
Kuwait8%

$904.9K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3172%
October 1564%

$20.1K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20267%

$115.5K Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$228.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?

25-2943%
30-3430%

$54.4K Vol.weekly

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

October 3169%
November 3069%

$5.2K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$50.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$59.0K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3114%
October 317%

$86.7K Vol.

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 1561%
October 3159%

$14.5K Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$145.9K Vol.2 months left

Turkey military action against Yemen by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$5.8K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

23%chance

$462.4K Vol.2 months left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$826.8K Vol.17 days left

Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?

December 3127%
November 3018%

$3.4K Vol.

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Xiaomi21%
DeepSeek19%

$126.2K Vol.

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

340%
234%

$25.2K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

$158.3K Vol.2 months left

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 315%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3115%
October 157%

$39.2K Vol.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$557.2K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by...?

December 3139%
October 3120%

$2.8K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

<1%chance

$23.7K Vol.17 days left

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 3112%
October 315%

$2.6K Vol.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan15%
Germany15%

$680.5K Vol.annual

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 317%
October 154%

$22.0K Vol.

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

$120.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$352.3K Vol.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202734%
June 30, 202730%

$8.5M Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$174.0K Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1493%
October 1688%

$139.7K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$252.7K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

8%chance

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Nothing Ever Happens: October

94%chance

$8.4K Vol.17 days left

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2953%
20-2420%

$43.4K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

25%chance

$66.4K Vol.2 months left

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-584%
5-107%

$19.6K Vol.monthly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$273.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

65%chance

$72.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1490%
October 1584%

$256.1K Vol.monthly

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3131%
October 3120%

$93.6K Vol.

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?

25%chance

$2.6K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3075%

$391.2K Vol.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$422.6K Vol.2 months left

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

$533.1K Vol.2 months left

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 598%
October 896%

$64.4K Vol.monthly

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

$44.7K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2838%
Tally Gotliv16%

$45.9K Vol.

Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?

November 3054%
October 3128%

$11.7K Vol.

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

2%chance

$8.5K Vol.17 days left

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3114%
October 313%

$55.3K Vol.

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 3098%
November 1586%

$8.7K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<467%
4-632%

$10.2K Vol.

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

27%chance

$19.0K Vol.2 months left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT26%
CATL26%

$475.6K Vol.

US military action against Cuba by...?

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

$5.8K Vol.17 days left

Russia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?

$255.9K Vol.2 months left

$1.0K Vol.17 days left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2927%
30-3424%

$6.0K Vol.weekly

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

2%chance

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

190-20936%
170-18928%

$5.6K Vol.weekly

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3126%
October 318%

$329.3K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3155%
Qatar18%

$155.4K Vol.

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Kuwait11%
Egypt10%

$79.8K Vol.

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3184%
October 3157%

$7.3K Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

8%chance

$154.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?

18%chance

$34.9K Vol.2 months left

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

20%chance

$6.9K Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

$637.4K Vol.2 months left

FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?

$11.1K Vol.17 days left

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 313%

$559.5K Vol.

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

$42.7K Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

$197.6K Vol.2 months left

$43.8K Vol.17 days left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman48%
Dario Amodei38%

$52.0K Vol.monthly

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

9%chance

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$23.9K Vol.2 months left

Syrian troops enter Yemen by...?

December 3110%
October 314%

$4.7K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

$746.8K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3176%
October 152%

$10.8K Vol.

Another NATO article 4 by...?

December 3130%
October 3117%

$182.4K Vol.

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

$87.1K Vol.2 months left

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan42%
Rafael Grossi18%

$222.7K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?

December 319%
October 318%

$38.7K Vol.

Ukraine election called by...?

$97.5K Vol.2 months left

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3168%
November 3065%

$39.4K Vol.

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

$102.5K Vol.2 months left

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

81%chance

$823.6K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2838%
Yoav Ben-Tzur22%

$13.9K Vol.

Israel military action against Iraq by...?

37%chance

$2.3K Vol.17 days left

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

$189.3K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

12%chance

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202716%
December 31, 20268%

$250.4K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Li Xi7%
Ding Xuexiang6%

$251.3K Vol.

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

8%chance

$20.6K Vol.17 days left

Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?

$146.4K Vol.2 months left

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3135%
October 1512%

$131.7K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland14%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$15.4K Vol.8 months left

EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...?

December 3113%
October 31<1%

$3.5K Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

473%
513%

$7.6M Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

20-2427%
<2025%

$386.1 Vol.weekly

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Ursula von der Leyen51%
Mark Rutte40%

$565.0K Vol.

Houthis target Syria by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$4.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

531%
625%

$9.1K Vol.

NATO dissolves before 2027?

1%chance

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

September 2979%
September 2675%

$213.0K Vol.monthly

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2325%
<2023%

$17.1K Vol.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.0K Vol.2 months left

Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?

December 3170%
October 3137%

$300.0 Vol.

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

16%chance

$271.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

23%chance

$92.2K Vol.2 months left

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time55%
60+19%

$914.0K Vol.

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

March 31, 202760%
December 3134%

$68.3K Vol.

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

14%chance

$6.5K Vol.17 days left

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

13%chance

$3.5K Vol.2 months left

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

October 3127%
October 1517%

$9.4K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?

190-20939%
210-22935%

$7.5K Vol.weekly

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$567.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by...?

$42.0K Vol.2 months left

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

$2.1K Vol.17 days left

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202720%
December 31, 20265%

$172.3K Vol.

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

20%chance

$6.0K Vol.17 days left

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

$449.2K Vol.5 months left

Houthi military action against Mecca by...?

December 314%
October 313%

$6.8K Vol.

Will Iran target Kuwait by...?

October 3114%
October 1513%

$24.1K Vol.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

$34.9K Vol.2 months left

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

14%chance

$35.9K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Israel14%
Mexico14%

$401.6K Vol.annual

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?