Politics

117 events

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1597%
- October 3182%
$12.2M Vol.monthly

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US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1896%

$1.8M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election

$181.0M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

240-25934%
260-27922%

$1.5M Vol.weekly

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202717%

$3.9M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen43%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.3M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep62%
R Senate, D House28%

$22.9M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Jon Ossoff14%

$1.3B Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$919.5K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?

65-8956%
90-11439%

$361.1K Vol.daily

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3142%

$39.7M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 311%

$73.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$207.4K Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$715.9M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$16.7M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.2M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202711%

$660.7K Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio15%

$711.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$148.7K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

220-23914%
240-25914%

$217.1K Vol.weekly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%59%
4.0%24%

$7.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson15%

$10.1M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)65%
Ken Paxton (R)37%

$3.6M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.7M Vol.2 months left

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.9M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.3M Vol.18 days left

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić71%
Ilija Srdanović17%

$1.2M Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$404.7K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu87%
Sorin Grindeanu4%

$5.0M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3132%
October 3110%

$77.2K Vol.

$239.6K Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$84.3K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$163.3K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202742%
Netanyahu - Israel PM33%

$1.0M Vol.annual

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$115.4K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3119%
October 317%

$261.0K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Healthcare96%
Save America Act96%

$42.6K Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$252.4K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3118%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

18%chance

$203.9K Vol.18 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

99%chance

$662.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202747%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23916%
200-21914%

$26.1K Vol.weekly

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar59%
Likud42%

$657.8K Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
June 30, 202713%

$717.5K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez15%

$1.8M Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$767.6K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$319.2K Vol.Ended

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3137%
November 3035%

$324.4K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow74%
Brad Bradford27%

$349.0K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

TX-04 House Election Winner

Pat Fallon (R)96%
Jason Pearce (D)2%

$79.1K Vol.

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202716%

$711.4K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$46.1K Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an66%
Puma Shen34%

$893.5K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3064%
October 3144%

$104.6K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

32%chance

$546.6K Vol.9 months left

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)40%

$1.2M Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.4M Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202722%

$221.7K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby19%

$153.5K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$369.1K Vol.2 months left

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$608.8K Vol.

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Thom Tillis10%
Catherine Cortez Masto10%

$308.0K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+94%
960-9994%

$366.4K Vol.daily

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

5%chance

$283.0K Vol.2 months left

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

22%chance

$172.0K Vol.2 months left

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)69%
Sam Forstag (D)32%

$79.6K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)63%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$898.1K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202642%
November 30, 202632%

$703.4K Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)30%

$1.6M Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3122%
October 313%

$38.4K Vol.

TN-04 House Election Winner

$103.2K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3153%
November 3035%

$1.3M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula66%
Flavio Bolsonaro35%

$68.9K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov14%

$1.2M Vol.

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp70%
Stefan Evers27%

$232.6K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3122%
November 3017%

$523.9K Vol.

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)97%
Colby Watson (D)3%

$45.3K Vol.

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Paxton 0-3%34%
Talarico 3-6%25%

$27.2K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

120-13930%
140-15930%

$44.4K Vol.daily

MO-04 House Election Winner

Mark Alford (R)95%
Jordan Herrera (D)3%

$72.5K Vol.

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat89%
PSD7%

$342.5K Vol.

Minnesota Attorney General Election Winner

Keith Ellison (D)72%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)26%

$16.3K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

TX-35 House Election Winner

Johnny Garcia (D)59%
Carlos De La Cruz (R)41%

$52.6K Vol.

Zelenskyy # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?

80-9981%
100-1196%

$18.2K Vol.daily

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?

December 3178%
October 3164%

$69.3K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

$43.6K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$823.5K Vol.18 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

MN-05 House Election Winner

Ilhan Omar (D)95%
John Nagel (R)4%

$66.1K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.7M Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.2M Vol.

Closest Senate Race?

Kansas15%
Iowa12%

$24.2K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S + MP + C + V23%
S + MP20%

$89.0K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen89%
Édouard Philippe7%

$7.2K Vol.

NY-24 House Election Winner

$43.9K Vol.

NM-02 House Election Winner

$73.7K Vol.

TX-28 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 6-9%21%
Democrat 9-12%20%

$18.1K Vol.

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$81.9K Vol.

GA-09 House Election Winner

Andrew Clyde (R)96%
Caitlyn Gegen (D)2%

$42.4K Vol.

Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Trump out as President before 2027?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?