Geopolitics

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$246.8K Vol.20 days left

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3016%

$594.8K Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

China10%
Russia9%

$68.5K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3026%

$3.1M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202744%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3147%
November 3035%

$1.3M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3114%
October 316%

$272.4K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 1180%
October 476%

$882.4K Vol.monthly

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1687%
October 1764%

$290.2K Vol.monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

$212.2K Vol.17 days left

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$154.7K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$89.8K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3137%
November 3036%

$329.5K Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 298%
October 1196%

$36.1K Vol.monthly

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 313%

$2.4M Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$276.3K Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3130%
October 317%

$172.8K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Trump out as President before 2027?

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3064%
October 3141%

$105.2K Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$283.0K Vol.2 months left

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202718%
December 3111%

$4.8M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3119%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$776.6K Vol.47 days left

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3178%
November 3054%

$526.6K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202642%
November 30, 202632%

$703.4K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$378.7K Vol.2 months left

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 318%

$349.0K Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$3.5M Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$101.5K Vol.17 days left

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3186%
October 3132%

$461.7K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Ofer Winter18%

$38.5K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

$163.4K Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela18%
Kuwait8%

$905.2K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 20269%

$257.1K Vol.

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3191%
October 1581%

$21.7K Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3184%
October 1583%

$17.1K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin81%
Mohammed bin Salman80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20267%

$115.5K Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$228.2K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$60.1K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?

25-2938%
30-3431%

$54.5K Vol.weekly

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202756%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$828.0K Vol.17 days left

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 311%

$354.4K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3114%
October 316%

$86.8K Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3069%
October 3167%

$5.2K Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$145.9K Vol.2 months left

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

23%chance

$462.4K Vol.2 months left

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 315%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka36%
Kramatorsk9%

$1.7M Vol.

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Xiaomi21%
DeepSeek19%

$126.2K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2836%
Tally Gotliv16%

$49.0K Vol.

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

October 3120%
December 3119%

$95.0K Vol.

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3169%
October 2036%

$4.6K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Germany15%
Japan14%

$680.9K Vol.annual

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz95%
Ursula von der Leyen89%

$210.3K Vol.monthly

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$53.2K Vol.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 316%
October 154%

$22.0K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$46.1K Vol.

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

$120.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3114%
October 315%

$22.8K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$10.5K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3076%

$392.2K Vol.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202734%
June 30, 202730%

$8.5M Vol.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$557.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2324%
20-2121%

$19.1K Vol.

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?

33%chance

$3.0K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

30-3428%
<2026%

$7.1K Vol.weekly

Nothing Ever Happens: October

94%chance

$8.4K Vol.17 days left

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 318%
October 313%

$4.2K Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-589%
5-107%

$20.2K Vol.monthly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$273.6K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 598%
October 896%

$65.0K Vol.monthly

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

30%chance

$534.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<477%
4-620%

$10.9K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

25%chance

$66.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3116%
October 314%

$57.0K Vol.

Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?

December 3124%
November 3017%

$3.4K Vol.

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan42%
Rafael Grossi19%

$223.9K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1492%
October 2890%

$140.1K Vol.

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3115%
October 156%

$39.5K Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha17%

$45.0K Vol.

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$8.5K Vol.17 days left

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time55%
60+26%

$915.0K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by...?

December 3140%
October 3111%

$3.0K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

US military action against Cuba by...?

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Another NATO article 4 by...?

December 3133%
October 3110%

$183.1K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?

20%chance

$36.0K Vol.2 months left

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

$198.1K Vol.2 months left

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT30%
CATL26%

$475.6K Vol.

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3014%
December 312%

$2.9K Vol.

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3183%
October 3160%

$7.5K Vol.

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

340%
232%

$26.0K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

$5.8K Vol.17 days left

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$422.7K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman19%
Dario Amodei14%

$52.4K Vol.monthly

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$502.7K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

190-20930%
170-18928%

$5.8K Vol.weekly

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

19%chance

$6.9K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Mark Rutte41%
Ursula von der Leyen40%

$565.5K Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

$15.0K Vol.

FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?

$11.1K Vol.17 days left

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Kuwait11%
Egypt10%

$79.8K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3155%
Qatar19%

$155.4K Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

$15.7K Vol.8 months left

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202717%
December 31, 20267%

$606.6K Vol.

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

$26.2K Vol.8 months left

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 3098%
November 1585%

$8.8K Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2955%
20-2420%

$44.0K Vol.monthly

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

$605.2K Vol.2 months left

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$24.0K Vol.2 months left

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3168%
November 3064%

$39.7K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

November 3082%
October 3180%

$9.6K Vol.

Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

25%chance

$92.9K Vol.2 months left

Turkey military action against Yemen by...?

December 3111%
October 311%

$5.8K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

$746.8K Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

$637.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

November 3028%
October 3116%

$97.8K Vol.

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

$21.5K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen13%

$42.5K Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

22%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

$87.1K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2840%
Yoav Ben-Tzur25%

$14.1K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?

October 3110%
December 319%

$38.7K Vol.

Ukraine election called by...?

$97.5K Vol.2 months left

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

$102.5K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

$167.3K Vol.2 months left

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

$189.3K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$395.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202756%
March 31, 202739%

$401.7K Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE41%
Turkey23%

$33.0K Vol.

Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?

$146.4K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3185%
October 152%

$10.8K Vol.

EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...?

December 3111%
October 31<1%

$3.6K Vol.

Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?

December 3163%
October 3122%

$445.7 Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland15%
Lebanon8%

$1.8M Vol.

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202747%
December 31, 20269%

$430.7 Vol.

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3127%
October 3113%

$64.2K Vol.

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

October 3140%
October 1513%

$9.6K Vol.

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

$20.6K Vol.17 days left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2026%
25-2923%

$386.1 Vol.weekly

Russia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?

$1.1K Vol.17 days left

Israel military action against Iraq by...?

19%chance

$2.3K Vol.17 days left

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

28%chance

$19.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

65%chance

$73.0K Vol.2 months left

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.0K Vol.2 months left

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

466%
513%

$7.6M Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$862.2K Vol.2 months left

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

September 2976%
September 2272%

$213.0K Vol.monthly

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

12%chance

$43.8K Vol.17 days left

Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?

December 3165%
October 3135%

$309.4 Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?

190-20940%
210-22938%

$7.5K Vol.weekly

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Li Xi6%
Ding Xuexiang6%

$251.4K Vol.

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

$550.7 Vol.17 days left

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$567.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

March 31, 202764%
December 3134%

$68.4K Vol.

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3141%
October 1512%

$131.7K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

<1%chance

$23.7K Vol.17 days left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 313%

$559.5K Vol.

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3125%
October 316%

$329.3K Vol.

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?

$4.1K Vol.Ended

Ukraine election held by...?

$239.2K Vol.2 months left

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

$191.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

$823.6K Vol.2 months left

$6.2K Vol.17 days left

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

81%chance

Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?

$21.4K Vol.2 months left

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

$63.5K Vol.2 months left

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

12%chance

$3.5K Vol.2 months left

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 3114%
October 311%

$407.2K Vol.

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3049%
October 3124%

$17.4K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.0M Vol.

Will Trump meet with Marcos by December 31, 2026?

92%chance

$1.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

$154.5K Vol.2 months left

China x India military clash by...?

$222.2K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Mecca by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$7.0K Vol.

Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?

35%chance

$20.2K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Italy10%
New Zealand9%

$762.4K Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

$218.6K Vol.2 months left

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

$337.5K Vol.2 months left

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

$119.9K Vol.2 months left

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

$42.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

13%chance

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Syrian troops enter Yemen by...?

December 3110%
October 314%

$4.7K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

$448.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

$255.9K Vol.2 months left

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

$169.0K Vol.2 months left

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$174.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu # of seats?

8-951%
6-722%

$5.7K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

190-20930%
170-18925%

$96.9 Vol.weekly

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

15%chance

$65.9K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-859%
<717%

$10.5K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

$251.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?

33%chance

$15.0K Vol.2 months left

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

$535.1K Vol.2 months left

Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?

June 30, 202730%
December 31, 202617%

$46.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Shas # of seats?

8-937%
6-730%

$7.0K Vol.

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

$4.7K Vol.17 days left

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

December 316%
November 304%

$380.3 Vol.

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?

November 306%
October 312%

$27.0K Vol.

Will Russia enter Moskovka by...?

14%chance

$5.4K Vol.17 days left

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3139%
October 318%

$53.1K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

$475.9K Vol.8 months left

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

$248.9K Vol.2 months left

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?

12%chance

$54.2K Vol.2 months left

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?