Trump

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro67%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.3M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1898%

$1.9M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202625%

$733.7K Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change57%
25 bps increase36%

$505.2K Vol.monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$269.0K Vol.19 days left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3133%
November 3024%

$3.1M Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%33%
Below 4.6%12%

$368.8K Vol.

$3.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay90%
Pee-wee / Peewee81%

$12.3K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3041%
October 319%

$227.9K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China76%
No meeting by December 3122%

$1.8M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

$511.0K Vol.2 months left

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

22%chance

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3132%
October 315%

$6.7M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%58%
≥ 4.5%23%

$7.1M Vol.

Who will be the next US Ambassador to Greece?

Nicole Malliotakis21%
Geoffrey Pyatt20%

$5.5K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202754%
Susie Wiles16%

$112.3K Vol.annual

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
120-13919%

$12.5K Vol.daily

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

10%chance

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Mardi Gras60%
Dad / Daddy52%

$10.9K Vol.weekly

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

180-19948%
160-17932%

$54.0K Vol.daily

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+30%
180-19924%

$31.5K Vol.daily

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3162%
Qatar18%

$159.2K Vol.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

$769.3K Vol.2 months left

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$13.1K Vol.

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

28%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Colombia by...?

27%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff96%
Kaitlan Collins88%

$134.8K Vol.monthly

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3178%
November 3076%

$395.7K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3130%
October 314%

$53.5K Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz98%
Ursula von der Leyen97%

$213.2K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro93%
Dario Amodei71%

$74.1K Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.5%25%
4.25%20%

$23.2K Vol.

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

41%chance

$6.7K Vol.2 months left

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.2+99%

$18.6K Vol.weekly

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

9%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Trump approval rating on October 16?

38.4+79%
37.4–37.58%

$5.6K Vol.weekly

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman38%
Dario Amodei14%

$55.4K Vol.monthly

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 2097%
October 1697%

$41.5K Vol.monthly

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?

$4.3K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

$287.8K Vol.2 months left

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

24%chance

$33.2K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$16.9K Vol.1 year left

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%87%
↓ 36%62%

$8.7K Vol.

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

31%chance

$548.1K Vol.9 months left

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3119%
October 313%

$1.8M Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil19%

$501.5K Vol.

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement67%
Likud34%

$65.6K Vol.

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro17%
Romeu Zema1%

$55.0K Vol.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie30%
Daniel Penny23%

$511.5K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

What will Kevin Warsh say during October Press Conference?

Good Day95%
Good Question94%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

$53.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

December 3172%
October 3163%

$889.1 Vol.monthly

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

<1%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

10-1292%
13-156%

$63.3K Vol.

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?

63%chance

$2.0K Vol.2 days left

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$642.3K Vol.2 months left

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines40%
Anduril14%

$215.9K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$25.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Susie Wiles42%
Kristi Noem35%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$16.7K Vol.8 months left

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

$410.6K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time51%
60+27%

$915.8K Vol.

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

1%chance

$27.5K Vol.2 months left

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3134%
October 3112%

$53.8K Vol.

What will Trump say in October?

Weave60%
Neurotic57%

$11.1K Vol.monthly

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

24%chance

$83.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Georgia>99%
North Carolina>99%

$25.5K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?

1141%
1026%

$23.9K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?

4876%
4714%

$28.4K Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

97%chance

$990.0 Vol.2 months left

Obama arrested before 2027?

$747.4K Vol.2 months left

$23.5K Vol.2 months left

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

10%chance

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 23?

37.0+84%
36.0+67%

$412.3 Vol.weekly

US strike on Mexico by...?

$765.7K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?

1070%
11+20%

$13.7K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202759%

$1.1M Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$378.9K Vol.4 days left

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$507.8K Vol.

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19024%
205-20919%

$325.7K Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

18%chance

$76.9K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Germany15%
Japan13%

$681.2K Vol.annual

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

November 3084%
October 3170%

$8.1K Vol.annual

Will Alberta join the US?

$2.2M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

$34.7K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Putin52%
Rigged52%

$1.1K Vol.weekly

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3010%
December 314%

$3.2K Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

10+21%
20+8%

$4.6K Vol.monthly

US x China Military clash before 2027?

$218.8K Vol.2 months left

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3184%
October 3150%

$7.8K Vol.

US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?

$665.1K Vol.2 months left

$42.3K Vol.2 months left

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 18?

62%chance

$201.6 Vol.3 days left

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$184.1K Vol.

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

36%63%
35%27%

$164.3K Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3117%
November 307%

$10.5K Vol.

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

16%chance

$174.1K Vol.2 months left

Next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?

No HR in 202656%
William Ruger26%

$28.7K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?

349%
226%

$24.5K Vol.

Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Kansas96%
Utah62%

$329.5K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?

553%
422%

$26.0K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

083%
115%

$1.5K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?

834%
731%

$11.1K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

32%chance

$1.9K Vol.Ended

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.4K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?

717%
12+12%

$13.2K Vol.

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

$208.8K Vol.2 months left

$87.2K Vol.2 months left

Weed rescheduled by...?

7%chance

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?

638%
7+28%

$31.7K Vol.

U.S. nuclear test by...?

$77.7K Vol.2 months left

Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by...?

December 3145%
November 3010%

$26.8K Vol.

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

$3.2K Vol.2 months left

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

1%chance

$228.4K Vol.19 days left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

$1.4K Vol.16 days left

Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?

22%chance

$18.5K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico17%
Vietnam15%

$401.7K Vol.annual

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

John Thune46%
Chuck Schumer36%

$11.4K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?

1124%
1223%

$18.0K Vol.

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 15?

77%chance

$412.8 Vol.10 hours left

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

98%chance

$14.9K Vol.19 days left

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

71%chance

$111.2K Vol.2 years left

US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

14%chance

$45.0K Vol.2 months left

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M60%
270M6%

$32.8K Vol.monthly

Trump meets with Mark Carney by...?

$1.4K Vol.16 days left

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

$11.0K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?

344%
432%

$9.9K Vol.

US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?

$80.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$354.8K Vol.

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.4K Vol.

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

7%chance

$32.0K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump endorse?

$148.7K Vol.19 days left

Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026?

$354.8 Vol.2 months left

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

$167.4K Vol.2 months left

Russia nuclear test by...?

$122.4K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

$205.5K Vol.2 months left

$70.4K Vol.2 months left

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

28%chance

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?

371%
425%

$20.6K Vol.

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

$133.9K Vol.2 months left

$63.5K Vol.2 months left

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Chuck Schumer47%
John Thune25%

$172.8K Vol.

ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

$408.8K Vol.

Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

December 3114%
October 314%

$2.1K Vol.

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202727%
December 31, 20265%

$33.4K Vol.

SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?

10%chance

$2.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

7%chance

Jerome Powell federally charged by...?

$3.1K Vol.2 months left

CNN flies with Trump by..?

October 3113%
October 152%

$18.4K Vol.

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

15%chance

$21.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?

J.D. Vance52%
Marco Rubio24%

$21.7K Vol.

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

8%chance

$30.1K Vol.16 days left

Trump renames ICE to NICE by...?

$10.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?

$12.7K Vol.5 months left

Maduro guilty of all counts?

36%chance

$133.2K Vol.1 year left

What foods will Trump mention in October?

Beef63%
Burger53%

$5.4K Vol.monthly

FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?

54%chance

$2.8K Vol.2 months left

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?