All markets
Obama arrested before 2027?
2%chance
- Yes1.9%
Outcomes
- Yes2%
1.9¢ per share
- No98%
98.0¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 1.9¢Spread 0.1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9¢ | 160.91 | $3.06 |
| 1.7¢ | 643.66 | $10.94 |
| 1.6¢ | 93.66 | $1.50 |
| 1.1¢ | 133.65 | $1.47 |
| 0.5¢ | 516 | $2.58 |
| 0.4¢ | 860.57 | $3.44 |
| 0.3¢ | 1,374.43 | $4.12 |
| 0.2¢ | 2,338 | $4.68 |
| 0.1¢ | 35,302 | $35.30 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2¢ | 490 | $9.80 |
| 2.1¢ | 100 | $2.10 |
| 2.2¢ | 100 | $2.20 |
| 2.7¢ | 130.44 | $3.52 |
| 3.8¢ | 52 | $1.98 |
| 4.5¢ | 13.65 | $0.61 |
| 5¢ | 500 | $25.00 |
| 5.5¢ | 1,010.24 | $55.56 |
| 6.3¢ | 64.03 | $4.03 |
| 7¢ | 1,797.2 | $125.80 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.