World

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3126%
October 316%

$9.0M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$298.2K Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202735%

$2.9M Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$834.7K Vol.2 months left

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3121%

$1.8M Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%chance

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$222.3K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change86%
25 bps increase14%

$130.0K Vol.annual

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon37%
Édouard Philippe31%

$15.8K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$385.1K Vol.4 days left

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$59.6K Vol.4 hours left

New pandemic in 2026?

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 5-10%16%
Ruas <5%14%

$32.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2833%
Matan Kahana16%

$47.7K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2830%
Ofer Winter18%

$44.9K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202723%
December 31, 20268%

$262.7K Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%63%
Iotova 10-20%22%

$17.6K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

25%chance

$19.4K Vol.1 year left

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

The Democrats56%
Yashar55%

$59.8K Vol.

Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

58%chance

$4.2K Vol.12 days left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$63.9K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$231.0K Vol.2 months left

Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?

48%chance

$2.9K Vol.45 days left

Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

<2.75%53%
4.25%+22%

$5.8K Vol.

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-869%
<711%

$14.0K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%49%
5.50-5.99%27%

$165.0K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

SPD98%
Grüne94%

$23.5K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Together vote share?

9-11%37%
7-9%26%

$5.3K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2836%
Tally Gotliv13%

$50.6K Vol.

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202733%
December 31, 202614%

$3.9K Vol.

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$407.0K Vol.2 months left

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

Linke56%
SPD53%

$22.5K Vol.

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1634%
11-1325%

$8.0K Vol.

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

11%chance

$145.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

25%chance

$7.6K Vol.12 days left

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

$53.8K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$16.7K Vol.8 months left

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE38%
Turkey23%

$34.1K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Wang Huning5%
Dong Jun4%

$252.5K Vol.

Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Kevin Acton85%
Harwinder Sandhu11%

$6.3K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$642.3K Vol.2 months left

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

13%chance

$183.1K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?

<2.5%56%
2.5-3.25%22%

$5.5K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2839%
Yoav Ben-Tzur24%

$15.1K Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

$16.1K Vol.

Federal District Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Celina 20-25%46%
Celina 25%+25%

$5.1K Vol.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

$226.0K Vol.2 months left

$35.5K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Religious Zionist Party–Zehut vote share?

5-6%50%
4-5%21%

$5.0K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$25.1K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?

6-736%
4-532%

$11.8K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

12%chance

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

16%chance

$36.5K Vol.2 months left

Prime Minister of Australia after next election?

Anthony Albanese42%
Pauline Hanson24%

$33.8K Vol.

Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Garry Thind68%
Garry Begg30%

$2.3K Vol.

Israel Election: Blue and White vote share?

<0.75%50%
0.75-1.25%43%

$6.0K Vol.

El Salvador Legislative Election: 3rd Place

PCN46%
PDC24%

$7.1K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout

78-80%60%
76-78%19%

$12.5K Vol.

Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share?

4-4.75%52%
4.75-5.5%35%

$5.5K Vol.

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Belgium10%
Finland10%

$762.9K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$380.9K Vol.2 months left

Vancouver-Yaletown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Margareta Dovgal53%
Terry Yung34%

$4.3K Vol.

Which party will gain most seats in El Salvador Legislative Election?

Nuevas Ideas (NI)80%
PCN4%

$5.6K Vol.

Jimmy Lai released by...?

$25.9K Vol.2 months left

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%53%
1.1 – 1.5%27%

$114.1K Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase66%
No change31%

$13.9K Vol.annual

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

48%chance

$53.8K Vol.2 months left

French election called by...?

9%chance

$10.5K Vol.2 months left

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase23%

$10.3K Vol.annual

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

5-6%39%
6-7%36%

$7.7K Vol.

Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

David Xie44%
Paul Choi40%

$1.8K Vol.

Israel Election: Shas vote share?

<6%30%
6-7%28%

$3.8K Vol.

Israel Election: Dems # of seats?

12-1332%
8-930%

$6.7K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan17%
Germany16%

$681.2K Vol.annual

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

December 31, 202615%
October 31, 202611%

$363.3K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<466%
4-634%

$11.5K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2326%
20-2118%

$19.4K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase53%
No change43%

$94.1K Vol.annual

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

$169.2K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change52%
25 bps hike28%

$32.9K Vol.annual

Will Alberta join the US?

$2.2M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Shas # of seats?

8-937%
6-732%

$7.3K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

AfD67%
Grüne32%

$59.6K Vol.

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

24%chance

$7.2K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha17%

$45.7K Vol.

Acre Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Mailza 20%+38%
Mailza 10-15%34%

$4.5K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round?

$224.6 Vol.6 months left

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Erdoğan out by...?

December 31, 202717%
December 31, 20264%

$649.2K Vol.

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0055%
1600.00–1699.9936%

$22.7K Vol.monthly

Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?

83%chance

$592.9 Vol.5 months left

Courtenay-Comox British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Brennan Day61%
Will Cole-Hamilton28%

$2.1K Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

$218.8K Vol.2 months left

El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place

PCN37%
ARENA27%

$10.4K Vol.

Tocantins Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Vicentinho 4%+36%
Vicentinho <4%28%

$3.6K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

$142.9K Vol.2 months left

China x India military clash by...?

$222.3K Vol.2 months left

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$283.1K Vol.2 months left

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

$534.7K Vol.2 months left

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

86%chance

$604.0 Vol.45 days left

Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?

$34.6K Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (Invested)

$34.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

10+33%
8-928%

$8.1K Vol.

Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...?

December 313%
October 31<1%

$7.3K Vol.

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

857%
933%

$1.7M Vol.

Israel Election: The Joint List vote share?

5.5-6.5%42%
6.5-7.5%33%

$3.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

539%
622%

$9.7K Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.4K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu # of seats?

8-948%
6-723%

$5.8K Vol.

China coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202712%
December 31, 20264%

$163.5K Vol.

Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner

$135.1K Vol.

Ukraine lowers conscription age by...?

March 3119%
December 316%

$4.1K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Allyson 10-15%24%
Cadu wins23%

$9.2K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase61%
No change38%

$39.0K Vol.annual

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change97%
25 bps hike3%

$38.7K Vol.annual

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?

89%chance

$3.1K Vol.10 days left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202728%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

466%
516%

$7.6M Vol.

Richmond-Steveston British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Gordon Zhang77%
Bruce Kong20%

$3.5K Vol.

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico17%
Vietnam15%

$401.7K Vol.annual

Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

24%chance

$4.0K Vol.2 years left

North Island British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Anna Kindy65%
Sara Lopez32%

$1.5K Vol.

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

75%chance

$7.3K Vol.5 months left

Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Aziz 15%+34%
Aziz 10-15%34%

$5.9K Vol.

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

$7.5K Vol.2 months left

US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?

$80.4K Vol.2 months left

Surrey-Fleetwood British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Garry Purewal56%
Jagrup Brar48%

$2.3K Vol.

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$26.5K Vol.8 months left

Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?

5.5-6.5%31%
6.5-7.5%27%

$3.8K Vol.

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

$167.4K Vol.2 months left

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$174.2K Vol.

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?

23%chance

$13.4K Vol.2 months left

Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner

$7.5K Vol.

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%66%
25-29.9%30%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

$535.2K Vol.2 months left

Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Harj Dhaliwal44%
Jessie Sunner35%

$3.5K Vol.

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

$90.8K Vol.2 months left

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

$688.9K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202720%
December 31, 20266%

$172.8K Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$274.5K Vol.2 months left

Vancouver-Langara British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Jaime Stein72%
Sunita Dhir30%

$2.7K Vol.

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?

6-7%35%
5-6%28%

$4.4K Vol.

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202727%
December 31, 20265%

$33.4K Vol.

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

$161.0K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine election held by...?

$239.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by...?

December 31, 202717%
June 30, 202713%

$4.8K Vol.daily

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Lisa Beare36%
Doug Morneau36%

$2.9K Vol.

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

$235.0K Vol.2 months left

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

95%chance

$173.3K Vol.2 months left

Maduro guilty of all counts?

36%chance

$133.2K Vol.1 year left

Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election Winner

SDA97%
SDS2%

$11.5K Vol.

Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?

13%chance

$38.4K Vol.2 months left

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

11%chance

$92.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?

$53.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

$92.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

$152.2K Vol.2 months left

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

10%chance

$159.8K Vol.2 months left

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Ra'am96%
RZP-Zehut86%

$14.6K Vol.

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

65%chance

$2.1K Vol.2 months left

EU dissolves before 2027?

1%chance

$181.1K Vol.2 months left

Macron out by...?

$113.4K Vol.2 months left

$39.9K Vol.2 months left

Espírito Santo Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Pazolini 5-10%27%
Pazolini 20%+25%

$4.2K Vol.

Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?

1%chance

Israel Election: Joint List # of seats?

6-748%
8-937%

$4.8K Vol.

Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

$161.0K Vol.

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

$167.5K Vol.2 months left

Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?

48%chance

$139.6 Vol.4 days left

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?

63%chance

$31.1 Vol.31 days left

Kelowna Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Kristina Loewen69%
Loyal Wooldridge24%

$2.0K Vol.

Coquitlam-Burke Mountain British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Ryan Peterson63%
Jodie Wickens36%

$964.3 Vol.

Surrey City Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Zeeshan Wahla40%
Amna Shah35%

$2.1K Vol.

Cowichan Valley British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Bert Chen41%
Debra Toporowski28%

$1.1K Vol.

Any G20 leader out in 2026?

9%chance

$201.2 Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?

19%chance

$12.2K Vol.8 months left

Abdul-Malik al-Houthi out by...?

December 3117%
November 3013%

$32.0 Vol.

Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?

38%chance

$379.7 Vol.4 months left

El Salvador Legislative Election Winner

$5.0K Vol.

El Salvador Presidential Election Winner

Nayib Bukele97%
Rafael Aguirre2%

$2.4K Vol.

Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?

$153.2 Vol.2 months left

Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?

PQ 10-1963%
PQ 20-2938%

$7.4K Vol.

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$82.7K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Latvia?

Andris Kulbergs98%
Viktors Valainis1%

$12.8K Vol.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

SDP BiH84%
SNSD10%

$8.1K Vol.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

SNSD95%
DF3%

$11.0K Vol.

Will the TFFF reach $10 billion in 2026?

23%chance

$1.0K Vol.3 months left

Israel Election: Unity vote share?

<0.5%97%
0.5-0.75%2%

$5.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

18-20%42%
16-18%34%

$5.0K Vol.

Israel Election: The Democrats vote share?

7-8%31%
6-7%23%

$2.1K Vol.

Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?

December 319%
October 313%

$58.3K Vol.

Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by...?

11%chance

$5.6K Vol.2 months left

Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

19%chance

$414.5 Vol.2 months left

Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?

40-4386%
36-3912%

$55.9K Vol.

Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?

55-5970%
60-6421%

$30.9K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

<1%chance

$23.7K Vol.16 days left

Which countries will host an F1 race in 2026?

Qatar54%
UAE39%

$527.7 Vol.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

December 315%
October 311%

$118.0K Vol.

Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen?

Israel15%
China9%

$2.3K Vol.

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?

$238.0 Vol.2 months left

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

9%chance

$9.7K Vol.4 months left

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

16%chance

$2.6K Vol.6 months left

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

47%Up

Up Down

$2.2K Vol.

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

1600.00+46%
1550.00–1599.9935%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

Will NATO countries clash with each other by...?

December 31, 202716%
December 31, 20263%

$63.5K Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$862.2K Vol.2 months left

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

$77.6K Vol.2 months left

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

24%chance

$1.6K Vol.2 months left

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

$157.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

$115.8K Vol.2 months left

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?