World

Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro86%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva14%
$180.9M Vol.

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Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen43%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.3M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$853.2K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson15%

$10.1M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.9M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$8.9M Vol.

$1.2M Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

Donald Trump9%
Yulia Navalnaya9%

$15.0K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen88%
David Lisnard4%

$13.3K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman78%
Vladimir Putin78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

5%chance

$563.0K Vol.2 months left

French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon43%
Édouard Philippe37%

$9.9K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

5%chance

$228.2K Vol.2 months left

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3189%
October 3168%

$881.5K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Ofer Winter18%

$35.7K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon40%
Gabriel Attal23%

$6.6K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 20%+12%
Ruas 5-10%11%

$25.9K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202746%
June 30, 202740%

$2.9M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

<1%chance

$23.7K Vol.18 days left

Spain General Election Winner

PP86%
PSOE14%

$102.4K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

3%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan15%
Germany15%

$680.5K Vol.annual

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%61%
Remain 60–80%21%

$18.2K Vol.

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

56%chance

$51.6K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$199.5K Vol.annual

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%47%
4.50-4.99%24%

$162.4K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$174.0K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

AfD58%
Grüne27%

$58.6K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$252.7K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

8%chance

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202730%
December 31, 20265%

$33.2K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$45.1K Vol.2 days left

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

5%chance

$273.4K Vol.2 months left

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

$533.1K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

5-6%38%
6-7%36%

$6.7K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

5%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

French election called by...?

8%chance

$9.4K Vol.2 months left

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

$44.7K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2838%
Tally Gotliv16%

$45.9K Vol.

Macron out by...?

6%chance

$39.6K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<467%
4-632%

$10.2K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%50%
Iotova 10-20%31%

$13.7K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

11%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

74%chance

$7.0K Vol.5 months left

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Yashar56%
The Democrats56%

$51.5K Vol.

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?

6-7%35%
5-6%28%

$4.0K Vol.

Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner

Gintautas Kindurys47%
Ignotas Adomavičius19%

$6.9K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$54.8K Vol.

Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Kevin Acton76%
Harwinder Sandhu19%

$5.4K Vol.

Surrey City Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Zeeshan Wahla40%
Amna Shah37%

$2.1K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?

90%chance

$2.9K Vol.12 days left

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

19%chance

$6.6K Vol.14 days left

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

20%chance

$6.9K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change71%
25 bps increase24%

$9.7K Vol.annual

El Salvador Legislative Election: 3rd Place

PCN37%
PDC19%

$6.3K Vol.

Vancouver-Langara British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Jaime Stein52%
Sunita Dhir34%

$1.5K Vol.

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

62%chance

$2.1K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: The Joint List vote share?

6.5-7.5%35%
5.5-6.5%34%

$2.2K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$23.9K Vol.2 months left

Estonia Parliamentary Election Winner

Isamaa55%
Centre Party28%

$617.0 Vol.

El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place

PCN44%
ARENA26%

$10.0K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

SPD98%
Grüne95%

$21.4K Vol.

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change74%
25 bps increase25%

$108.4K Vol.annual

Richmond-Steveston British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Gordon Zhang75%
Bruce Kong24%

$3.4K Vol.

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

7%chance

$7.5K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine election called by...?

6%chance

$97.5K Vol.2 months left

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

81%chance

$823.6K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2838%
Yoav Ben-Tzur22%

$13.9K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%46%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.4K Vol.

North Island British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Anna Kindy63%
Sara Lopez38%

$1.4K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202716%
December 31, 20268%

$250.4K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Li Xi7%
Ding Xuexiang6%

$251.3K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland14%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$15.4K Vol.8 months left

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

SPD81%
Grüne74%

$20.0K Vol.

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

4%chance

$182.3K Vol.2 months left

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

473%
513%

$7.6M Vol.

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

531%
625%

$9.1K Vol.

Vancouver-Yaletown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Margareta Dovgal50%
Terry Yung45%

$3.4K Vol.

Acre Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Mailza 20%+33%
Mailza 10-15%33%

$3.8K Vol.

Cowichan Valley British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Debra Toporowski39%
Bert Chen30%

$972.9 Vol.

Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Garry Thind49%
Garry Begg34%

$1.7K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2325%
<2023%

$17.1K Vol.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

11%chance

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

December 31, 202616%
October 31, 202612%

$362.6K Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

6%chance

$799.0K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change42%

$93.5K Vol.annual

Federal District Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Celina 20-25%34%
Celina 10-15%28%

$3.1K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Latvia?

Andris Kulbergs98%
Jūlija Stepaņenko1%

$12.7K Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

5%chance

$567.0K Vol.2 months left

Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Paul Choi56%
David Xie25%

$923.2 Vol.

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

90%chance

$285.7 Vol.47 days left

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

10%chance

$191.7K Vol.2 months left

Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Harj Dhaliwal46%
Jessie Sunner32%

$3.3K Vol.

Israel Election: Shas vote share?

6-7%52%
<6%31%

$3.3K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Allyson 15%+30%
Allyson 3-6%27%

$7.9K Vol.

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Ra'am94%
RZP-Zehut81%

$14.3K Vol.

Tocantins Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Dorinha <4%37%
Vicentinho <4%27%

$2.3K Vol.

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1635%
11-1328%

$6.8K Vol.

Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?

7.5%+32%
5.5-6.5%28%

$3.7K Vol.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

5%chance

$29.9K Vol.2 months left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

Surrey-Fleetwood British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Garry Purewal50%
Jagrup Brar37%

$2.1K Vol.

Espírito Santo Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Pazolini 20%+33%
Pazolini 15-20%29%

$4.0K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

China x India military clash by...?

7%chance

$222.1K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$15.3K Vol.1 year left

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Lisa Beare45%
Doug Morneau42%

$2.8K Vol.

Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share?

4-4.75%47%
4.75-5.5%18%

$4.9K Vol.

Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner

$134.7K Vol.

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico20%
Vietnam13%

$401.6K Vol.annual

Israel Election: Dems # of seats?

8-936%
10-1131%

$6.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

56%chance

$759.6 Vol.14 days left

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

14%chance

$182.0K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

3%chance

$251.6K Vol.2 months left

Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?

December 319%
October 313%

$58.2K Vol.

Israel Election: Religious Zionist Party–Zehut vote share?

5-6%40%
6%+32%

$4.2K Vol.

Israel Election: Shas # of seats?

8-937%
6-730%

$7.0K Vol.

Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?

49%chance

$92.5 Vol.6 days left

World

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Netanyahu out by...?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

French election called by...?

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Macron out by...?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

Ukraine election called by...?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

China x India military clash by...?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?