Geopolitics

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$302.8K Vol.18 days left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$836.0K Vol.45 days left

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 319%
October 311%

$76.1M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$201.9K Vol.2 months left

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$9.1M Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202721%
December 3112%

$4.9M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

20%chance

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

March 31, 202722%
December 319%

$286.1K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3129%
November 3029%

$371.6K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3114%
November 3011%

$17.0M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$123.8K Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3132%
October 313%

$225.3K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 3110%

$386.4K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3174%
November 3050%

$574.0K Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Saudi Arabia15%
Russia11%

$106.4K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

1%chance

$130.0K Vol.15 days left

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$181.9K Vol.2 months left

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3032%
October 317%

$242.2K Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3133%
October 3110%

$10.2M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$66.5K Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3120%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1693%
October 2889%

$157.0K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202756%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 311%

$2.4M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China74%
No meeting by December 3123%

$1.8M Vol.

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1775%
October 2272%

$302.2K Vol.monthly

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3133%
November 3024%

$3.1M Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$298.5K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance

$843.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

March 31, 202765%
December 3134%

$77.4K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

$613.5K Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3137%

$121.3K Vol.

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202761%
January 15, 202750%

$861.8K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202624%

$739.5K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3118%
October 314%

$37.5K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$47.9K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202748%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

23%chance

$511.9K Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff35%
Jared Kushner35%

$1.5M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2832%
Yoram Cohen14%

$51.3K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

$504.1K Vol.8 months left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$849.9K Vol.15 days left

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$304.7K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time63%
60+17%

$921.3K Vol.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela11%
Kuwait7%

$912.5K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$69.2K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

60%chance

$79.2K Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2927%
<2023%

$13.4K Vol.weekly

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

$2.1M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3163%
Qatar16%

$162.5K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$641.4K Vol.

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

4%chance

$12.6K Vol.15 days left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

190-20940%
170-18932%

$4.4K Vol.weekly

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3066%
October 3148%

$12.8K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$64.6K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3179%
November 3077%

$397.0K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

24%chance

$19.6K Vol.1 year left

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202733%
June 30, 202726%

$8.5M Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3112%
October 317%

$99.3K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2954%
30-3420%

$47.2K Vol.monthly

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-592%
5-104%

$25.0K Vol.monthly

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$33.1K Vol.15 days left

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$231.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

170-18956%
190-20931%

$9.9K Vol.weekly

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1631%
11-1320%

$10.4K Vol.

US military action against Cuba by...?

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-875%
<712%

$14.0K Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$276.8K Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

9%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

$37.4K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz98%
Ursula von der Leyen96%

$213.4K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?

2%chance

$21.3K Vol.15 days left

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$12.5K Vol.

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

13%chance

$24.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3117%
October 312%

$62.4K Vol.

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3185%
October 3121%

$463.6K Vol.

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3120%
October 152%

$134.3K Vol.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$426.0K Vol.2 months left

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Wang Huning7%
Li Xi5%

$253.1K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 478%
October 1176%

$886.7K Vol.monthly

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20267%

$117.4K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2041%
30-3421%

$2.3K Vol.weekly

Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$40.4K Vol.

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

December 3183%
October 3127%

$24.9K Vol.

How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?

263%
314%

$6.6K Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka35%
Kramatorsk9%

$1.7M Vol.

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202732%

$403.5K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 296%
October 596%

$46.6K Vol.monthly

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$561.6K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?

December 3128%
October 3110%

$12.7K Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE35%
Turkey23%

$34.3K Vol.

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 317%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

538%
426%

$10.8K Vol.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

$155.6K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3111%
October 1510%

$23.3K Vol.

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

34%chance

$4.4K Vol.15 days left

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

22%chance

$15.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

16%chance

$7.3K Vol.15 days left

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

$145.3K Vol.2 months left

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

$53.8K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Egypt11%
Bahrain9%

$80.8K Vol.

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

1-10084%
>100k10%

$303.1K Vol.

Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?

8-933%
4-532%

$12.3K Vol.

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3172%
October 2220%

$908.8 Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha17%

$46.5K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?