Geopolitics

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.3M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1898%

$2.0M Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 599%
October 895%

$115.3K Vol.monthly

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202724%
December 3112%

$4.9M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202764%

$8.7M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3145%
November 3031%

$1.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$279.0K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$640.7K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$831.8K Vol.46 days left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202748%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$198.9K Vol.2 months left

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Israel military action against Syria by...?

November 3031%
October 3118%

$121.2K Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3126%
October 316%

$9.0M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi36%
Steve Witkoff35%

$1.5M Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3133%
October 315%

$221.3K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

19%chance

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

75%chance

$290.7K Vol.19 days left

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$177.6K Vol.2 months left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3115%
November 3011%

$17.0M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202624%

$739.3K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3174%
November 3050%

$573.5K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 319%
October 311%

$76.1M Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 319%

$386.0K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$298.2K Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3030%
October 319%

$236.1K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$115.8K Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3136%
October 3110%

$10.2M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$835.0K Vol.2 months left

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$66.2K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3133%
November 3024%

$3.1M Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Saudi Arabia16%
Russia11%

$99.9K Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3121%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1694%
October 2888%

$156.9K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3131%
November 3026%

$351.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3121%

$1.8M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

84%chance

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$64.0K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

12%chance

$613.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3118%
October 314%

$37.4K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

21%chance

$511.2K Vol.2 months left

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3057%
October 3138%

$119.8K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$503.7K Vol.8 months left

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 15>99%
October 16>99%

$297.7K Vol.monthly

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202760%
January 15, 202731%

$860.2K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$116.7K Vol.16 days left

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$303.7K Vol.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela11%
Kuwait7%

$912.0K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$848.8K Vol.16 days left

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time62%
60+16%

$920.4K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$44.9K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei86%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

$2.1M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3065%
October 3159%

$12.4K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$19.6K Vol.1 year left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3162%
Qatar18%

$159.3K Vol.

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

4+64%
335%

$35.8K Vol.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202734%
June 30, 202728%

$8.5M Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2833%
Matan Kahana16%

$47.7K Vol.

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$99.3K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 496%
October 1196%

$45.9K Vol.monthly

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-591%
10-154%

$24.9K Vol.monthly

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

20-2432%
25-2924%

$11.7K Vol.weekly

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$33.1K Vol.16 days left

US strike on Colombia by...?

27%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

27%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3180%
November 3076%

$395.9K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$231.0K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$66.2K Vol.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

$37.4K Vol.2 months left

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3113%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka35%
Kramatorsk9%

$1.7M Vol.

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-870%
9-1014%

$14.0K Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$276.8K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman30%
Dario Amodei20%

$55.8K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz98%
Ursula von der Leyen96%

$213.3K Vol.monthly

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 478%
October 1176%

$886.6K Vol.monthly

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

12%chance

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

9%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

US military action against Cuba by...?

11%chance

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

30%chance

$95.1K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2046%
30-3421%

$2.2K Vol.weekly

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$426.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$561.5K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

63%chance

$75.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202733%

$403.5K Vol.

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202733%
December 31, 202614%

$3.9K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2836%
Tally Gotliv16%

$50.6K Vol.

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3180%
November 3060%

$41.2K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

25%chance

$68.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?

December 3128%
October 3111%

$12.7K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?