Geopolitics

$15.1M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$223.0K Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3159%
December 3135%

$41.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
October 31, 202763%

$8.8M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.4M Vol.2 months left

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%
October 31<1%

$76.2M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3131%
November 3020%

$2.1M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3118%
October 312%

$7.4M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%chance

$74.4M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$141.3K Vol.

$1.2M Vol.annual

Trump out as President before 2027?

$12.7M Vol.2 months left

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3133%
October 314%

$265.3K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.8M Vol.14 days left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3130%
November 3021%

$1.6M Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3127%
October 318%

$427.8K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3038%
October 313%

$283.3K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.4M Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202727%
December 3113%

$5.0M Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3134%
October 317%

$10.3M Vol.

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 2190%
October 2089%

$625.3K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

$15.0M Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$27.5K Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$298.1K Vol.2 months left

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$398.0K Vol.2 months left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

28%chance

$214.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%
December 3112%

$27.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3172%
November 3051%

$599.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

March 31, 202717%
December 319%

$328.1K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$307.9K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$415.0K Vol.2 months left

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202721%
December 31, 202614%

$272.0K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China76%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$576.5K Vol.2 months left

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 1694%
October 479%

$902.4K Vol.monthly

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$107.3K Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3113%
November 306%

$20.0M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 18>99%
October 2197%

$2.1M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202636%
November 30, 202624%

$759.0K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3132%

$138.5K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3130%
November 3022%

$3.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$441.5K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen11%

$65.9K Vol.

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

11%chance

$43.4K Vol.8 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$75.2K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3118%
October 313%

$72.5K Vol.

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

13%chance

$280.3K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$135.9K Vol.14 days left

Netanyahu out by...?

37%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1894%
October 1983%

$308.5K Vol.monthly

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

$618.0K Vol.2 months left

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

11%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

$74.4K Vol.2 months left

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

$510.8K Vol.8 months left

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$656.2K Vol.

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

18%chance

$11.9K Vol.13 days left

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha20%

$50.5K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin82%
Mohammed bin Salman79%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3164%
Qatar14%

$167.1K Vol.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

$159.9K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

170-18939%
190-20938%

$8.3K Vol.weekly

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$191.8K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka30%
Kramatorsk9%

$1.7M Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$173.2K Vol.2 months left

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

33%chance

$71.3K Vol.2 months left

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

2%chance

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Li Xi5%
Ding Xuexiang5%

$256.1K Vol.

US military action against Cuba by...?

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time56%
60+24%

$924.3K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Egypt6%

$1.8M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$309.8K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202766%
January 15, 202738%

$864.4K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

December 3179%
October 3123%

$28.6K Vol.

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$564.4K Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Saudi Arabia14%
Russia10%

$110.0K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3184%
October 3125%

$466.0K Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1799%
October 1892%

$160.9K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20263%

$119.4K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$855.5K Vol.44 days left

Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?

$150.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff34%
Jared Kushner33%

$1.5M Vol.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

11%chance

$186.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?

73%chance

$5.0K Vol.2 months left

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202734%
June 30, 202727%

$8.5M Vol.

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

543%
727%

$12.7K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2936%
20-2431%

$16.8K Vol.weekly

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 1194%
October 267%

$48.8K Vol.monthly

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE42%
USA21%

$36.1K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3132%
November 3026%

$419.1K Vol.

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

$32.6K Vol.2 months left

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT31%
CATL26%

$607.2K Vol.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela9%
Kuwait8%

$915.5K Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

463%
516%

$7.6M Vol.

How many UKMTO notices October 19–25?

<848%
8-1121%

$2.0K Vol.weekly

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 3093%
November 1582%

$14.7K Vol.

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Ursula von der Leyen50%
Mark Rutte40%

$567.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Tally Gotliv14%

$52.1K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$51.4K Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Ursula von der Leyen96%
Friedrich Merz93%

$215.0K Vol.monthly

Ukraine election held by...?

$240.5K Vol.2 months left

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3134%
October 3112%

$55.0K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3182%
November 3076%

$405.7K Vol.

Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?

December 3164%
October 3112%

$3.0K Vol.

Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?

4-531%
6-731%

$13.6K Vol.

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202761%
March 31, 202733%

$405.0K Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

21%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

96%chance

$5.8K Vol.14 days left

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3116%
October 317%

$3.6M Vol.

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$409.0K Vol.2 months left

How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?

273%
314%

$9.0K Vol.

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?

November 305%
October 312%

$28.9K Vol.

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 20267%

$609.0K Vol.

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

March 31, 202763%
December 3134%

$78.4K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

170-18937%
190-20937%

$12.8K Vol.weekly

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3112%
October 314%

$38.7K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

September 2685%
September 2981%

$215.5K Vol.monthly

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 599%
October 895%

$117.9K Vol.monthly

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?

$116.3K Vol.2 months left

Russia coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202712%
December 31, 20263%

$149.7K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

61%chance

$80.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

96%chance

$10.6K Vol.14 days left

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

24%chance

$20.2K Vol.2 months left

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3160%
October 207%

$7.7K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

9%chance

$751.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

$120.6K Vol.2 months left

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$426.7K Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3116%
October 316%

$88.5K Vol.

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan50%
Rafael Grossi19%

$226.4K Vol.

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↓ $4.30>99%
↑ $4.5045%

$1.9K Vol.monthly

FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?

<1%chance

$11.8K Vol.14 days left

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?

November 1533%
October 3127%

$7.4K Vol.monthly

France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...?

December 315%
October 311%

$13.0K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$231.5K Vol.2 months left

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Xiaomi21%
DeepSeek17%

$126.9K Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$65.6K Vol.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$560.6K Vol.

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1627%
11-1322%

$12.1K Vol.

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3168%
October 2256%

$3.6K Vol.

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

$535.7K Vol.2 months left

$5.2K Vol.14 days left

Israel military action against Syria by...?

November 3016%
October 316%

$159.6K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

2%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

10%chance

$44.4K Vol.14 days left

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico15%
Vietnam15%

$402.4K Vol.annual

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

Syrian troops enter Yemen by...?

December 3122%
October 317%

$6.3K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

20-2132%
22-2327%

$20.2K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$20.1K Vol.1 year left

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

4+67%
331%

$36.6K Vol.

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?

21%chance

$44.3K Vol.2 months left

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman33%
Dario Amodei14%

$56.6K Vol.monthly

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

30-3424%
<2023%

$3.6K Vol.weekly

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2961%
30-3426%

$50.4K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture Svitle by...?

$44.0K Vol.14 days left

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

$127.0K Vol.2 months left

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

$7.2K Vol.14 days left

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3067%
October 3141%

$14.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?

2%chance

$21.6K Vol.14 days left

Israel Election: Dems # of seats?

8-940%
12-1325%

$7.2K Vol.

Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

31%chance

$95.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Oman by...?

November 3011%
October 313%

$45.7K Vol.

Israel military action against Iraq by...?

$3.9K Vol.13 days left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$850.6K Vol.14 days left

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3053%
October 319%

$19.6K Vol.

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

$30.5K Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

$638.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?

28%chance

$15.7K Vol.2 months left

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202732%
December 31, 202614%

$4.6K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: October

96%chance

$16.2K Vol.14 days left

Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?

$44.8K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2828%
Yoav Ben-Tzur18%

$15.5K Vol.

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3182%
November 3056%

$42.2K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

$16.8K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

$448.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Moskovka by...?

$5.8K Vol.14 days left

Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?

36%chance

$25.2K Vol.2 months left

Another NATO article 4 by...?

December 3130%
October 316%

$184.0K Vol.

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

$35.8K Vol.14 days left

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

$26.4K Vol.2 months left

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

22%chance

$15.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by...?

December 3127%
October 319%

$4.5K Vol.

US x Russia military clash by...?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?

December 319%
October 313%

$58.6K Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

September 2018%
September 2617%

$122.7K Vol.monthly

China x Japan military clash before 2027?