Geopolitics

$44.2M Vol.2 months left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

$15.0M Vol.2 months left

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202722%
December 3114%

$5.0M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.4M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3029%
October 316%

$273.4K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202756%
Netanyahu - Israel PM26%

$1.2M Vol.annual

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 3111%

$412.7K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3135%
November 3021%

$1.6M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$855.2K Vol.44 days left

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3113%
November 306%

$20.0M Vol.

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

$43.3K Vol.8 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China74%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

$527.4K Vol.2 months left

$12.6M Vol.2 months left

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$27.5K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3172%
November 3050%

$595.7K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

39%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

25%chance

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3014%

$654.7K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202634%
November 30, 202624%

$755.0K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3132%

$137.8K Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$9.1M Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3134%
October 319%

$10.2M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2851%
Yoram Cohen12%

$62.5K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$414.7K Vol.2 months left

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 1688%
October 1281%

$897.4K Vol.monthly

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$191.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

March 31, 202722%
December 319%

$325.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$575.3K Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$440.6K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

$510.7K Vol.8 months left

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3111%
October 311%

$105.7K Vol.

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

14%chance

$280.2K Vol.2 months left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3132%
November 3022%

$3.1M Vol.

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3117%
October 313%

$68.1K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1982%
October 2279%

$308.0K Vol.monthly

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3076%

$405.0K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

24%chance

$207.1K Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

$477.9K Vol.2 months left

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$751.8K Vol.2 months left

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$74.4K Vol.2 months left

Nothing Ever Happens: October

96%chance

$16.2K Vol.14 days left

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

9%chance

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3166%
Qatar13%

$167.0K Vol.

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

$11.3K Vol.14 days left

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$51.2K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$384.3K Vol.2 months left

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2956%
30-3425%

$50.3K Vol.monthly

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

10%chance

$186.2K Vol.2 months left

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

$173.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel military action against Syria by...?

November 3017%
October 317%

$159.6K Vol.

US military action against Cuba by...?

$147.9K Vol.2 months left

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

10%chance

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$132.9K Vol.14 days left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff33%
Jared Kushner32%

$1.5M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$307.2K Vol.

EU dissolves before 2027?

$185.5K Vol.2 months left

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Wang Huning5%
Li Xi5%

$255.6K Vol.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202735%
June 30, 202727%

$8.5M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha24%

$48.9K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

170-18944%
190-20934%

$12.5K Vol.weekly

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

$158.6K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

190-20942%
170-18926%

$6.5K Vol.weekly

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka33%
Kramatorsk9%

$1.7M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3132%
November 3026%

$417.8K Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$3.5M Vol.

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

$76.9K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2941%
20-2424%

$15.7K Vol.weekly

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?

$115.4K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 599%
October 896%

$117.2K Vol.monthly

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3062%
October 3141%

$14.4K Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Saudi Arabia17%
Russia10%

$108.1K Vol.

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

November 3028%
October 314%

$99.5K Vol.

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

$169.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

$328.0K Vol.2 months left

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$560.1K Vol.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela12%
Kuwait8%

$914.1K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$300.0K Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE44%
Turkey20%

$35.8K Vol.

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3071%
October 3123%

$19.3K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

No Next Minister by Feb 2831%
Gadi Eizenkot16%

$70.5K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20263%

$118.7K Vol.

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

December 3186%
October 3133%

$26.2K Vol.

Will Russia capture Svitle by...?

16%chance

$43.7K Vol.14 days left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

How many UKMTO notices October 19–25?

<843%
8-1119%

$1.3K Vol.weekly

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 317%
October 311%

$1.1M Vol.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

15%chance

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

$88.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

$80.8K Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1627%
8-1024%

$11.6K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time60%
60+22%

$922.1K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$175.8K Vol.

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3127%
October 316%

$331.0K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

$288.9K Vol.2 months left

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan49%
Rafael Grossi19%

$226.3K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

86%chance

$26.4K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2031%
20-2426%

$3.3K Vol.weekly

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3112%
October 314%

$38.5K Vol.

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

14%chance

$24.2K Vol.2 months left

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3163%
October 2021%

$7.1K Vol.

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3184%
October 3128%

$464.6K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202728%
December 31, 20269%

$263.7K Vol.

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$408.0K Vol.2 months left

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202761%
January 15, 202745%

$862.7K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

$8.0K Vol.14 days left

Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

<1%chance

$3.1K Vol.14 days left

US strike on Colombia by...?

22%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

77%chance

$9.9K Vol.14 days left

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$65.6K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

September 2165%
September 2959%

$215.5K Vol.monthly

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 1194%
October 593%

$47.5K Vol.monthly

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz96%
Ursula von der Leyen93%

$214.3K Vol.monthly

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$562.4K Vol.

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Mark Rutte43%
Ursula von der Leyen39%

$566.5K Vol.

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

4+68%
331%

$36.6K Vol.

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3186%
October 3135%

$9.0K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

1%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

$3.0K Vol.14 days left

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3133%
October 3112%

$54.6K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT31%
CATL21%

$605.6K Vol.

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 20266%

$608.0K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$850.5K Vol.14 days left

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

$178.1K Vol.2 months left

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3182%
November 3057%

$41.9K Vol.

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$252.6K Vol.

Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?

$3.5K Vol.2 months left

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

$120.5K Vol.2 months left

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 317%
October 312%

$4.8K Vol.

Syrian troops enter Yemen by...?

December 3119%
October 315%

$5.9K Vol.

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Xiaomi21%
DeepSeek17%

$126.9K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman24%
Dario Amodei17%

$56.4K Vol.monthly

Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?

December 3163%
October 3127%

$2.3K Vol.

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

$844.2K Vol.2 months left

$5.2K Vol.14 days left

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%chance

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

10%chance

$44.4K Vol.14 days left

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

$15.1K Vol.2 months left

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$426.4K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Mexico by...?

$766.6K Vol.2 months left

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

$4.8K Vol.14 days left

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

$637.9K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-869%
<713%

$14.4K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.8M Vol.

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202733%

$403.9K Vol.

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

$127.0K Vol.2 months left

Israel military action against Iraq by...?

31%chance

$3.6K Vol.14 days left

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202733%
December 31, 202614%

$4.4K Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Israel annex any territory by...?

June 30, 202714%
March 31, 202711%

$536.3K Vol.

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3130%
October 3111%

$65.5K Vol.

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?

November 305%
October 312%

$27.9K Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?