Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change76%
- 25 bps increase24%
$40.3M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase79%
No change20%

$3.5M Vol.monthly

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

82%chance

$781.0K Vol.55 days left

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA69%
Apple28%

$8.3M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change56%
25 bps increase41%

$496.0K Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA85%
Apple15%

$337.3K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike63%
Hike–Hike–Hike15%

$334.8K Vol.daily

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%36%
5.5%22%

$997.6K Vol.weekly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%40%
Below 5.15%26%

$88.9K Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$220.3K Vol.annual

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%55%
5.80%30%

$225.5K Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting51%
June 2027 Meeting36%

$3.8M Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause47%
Pause-Hike-Hike21%

$46.3K Vol.daily

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple82%
NVIDIA16%

$40.1K Vol.monthly

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet79%
Microsoft20%

$67.6K Vol.monthly

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change93%
25 bps increase7%

$586.2K Vol.annual

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%81%
5.25%40%

$110.9K Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change79%
25 bps increase20%

$181.7K Vol.annual

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease87%
No Change11%

$59.8K Vol.annual

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.6%39%
5.5%20%

$34.1K Vol.monthly

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

3.0-3.5%36%
2.5-3.0%36%

$53.6K Vol.annual

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase92%
No change10%

$311.7K Vol.annual

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet68%
Microsoft23%

$74.5K Vol.monthly

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%17%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%48%
0.2 to 0.3%28%

$30.8K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%40%
5.35%33%

$28.6K Vol.weekly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%16%
Below 4.45%7%

$87.2K Vol.

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K35%
$397K - $407K31%

$20.9K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%61%
Below 5.15%45%

$15.7K Vol.weekly

October Inflation US - Monthly

0.3%42%
≥0.9%27%

$2.1K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+53%
2.7-2.8M22%

$46.5K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%56%
5.00%55%

$18.0K Vol.

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.3%54%
0.2%27%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change84%
25 bps decrease8%

$55.6K Vol.annual

Meta headcount above __ in Q3?

6600083%
6800067%

$1.6K Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%83%
↑ 4.5%21%

$1.9M Vol.

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%52%
1.2-1.5%37%

$70.1K Vol.annual

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%65%
Below 4.70%51%

$7.6K Vol.

October Inflation US - Annual

3.7%51%
4.0%30%

$1.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%68%
Below 4.60%61%

$14.1K Vol.

Core CPI MoM - October 2026

0.2%37%
0.3%35%

$1.4K Vol.monthly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change79%
25 bps increase22%

$37.2K Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change67%
25 bps decrease25%

$12.0K Vol.annual

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%24%
-0.3% to -0.1%23%

$36.6K Vol.annual

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$34.9K Vol.monthly

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%59%
3.0–3.4%22%

$139.5K Vol.monthly

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%50%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$113.6K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%68%
5.08%39%

$16.8K Vol.

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.8K Vol.

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%42%
0.2–0.3%28%

$36.0K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.52%68%
Below 5.49%42%

$14.8K Vol.

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%72%
4.89%69%

$11.7K Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease12%

$79.0K Vol.annual

Central Bank of Colombia decision in October

No change68%
25 bps increase24%

$37.0K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$116.6K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%52%
Below 4.89%47%

$11.5K Vol.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T45%
$1.00-$1.10T37%

$12.1K Vol.monthly

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase30%

$12.6K Vol.

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%68%
2.5–3.0%18%

$55.2K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%72%
4.6-4.9%15%

$68.1K Vol.monthly

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%32%

$7.4K Vol.monthly

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%38%
3.5-3.9%24%

$63.2K Vol.monthly

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+96%
0.75% to 1.49%2%

$102.7K Vol.

Core CPI YoY - October 2026

2.6%40%
2.5%32%

$659.9 Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

$1.083M - $1.104M23%
$1.125M - $1.146M21%

$13.1K Vol.monthly

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

53%chance

$18.1K Vol.2 months left

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

<6.8M27%
7.4M+23%

$14.6K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$497K - $510K27%
$445K - $458K26%

$11.2K Vol.monthly

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.1%38%
3.0%28%

$15.0K Vol.monthly

Price of Dozen Eggs in October?

$2.20 to $2.3034%
$2.10 to $2.2026%

$574.2 Vol.monthly

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%5%
5.5%2%

$563.8K Vol.

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple61%
NVIDIA18%

$31.2K Vol.monthly

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change93%
Decrease7%

$61.1K Vol.annual

How many jobs added in October?

100k+31%
75k to 100k17%

$21.7K Vol.monthly

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%50%
5.50-5.99%21%

$162.9K Vol.

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

51.0 to 51.929%
53.0 to 53.922%

$11.8K Vol.monthly

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.73%33%
5.76%24%

$19.8K Vol.

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%87%
2.0-2.4%13%

$58.0K Vol.

$38.2K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change71%
25 bps increase23%

$10.1K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase70%
No Change13%

$11.1K Vol.monthly

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%85%
2.5-2.9%9%

$76.2K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase53%
No change43%

$93.8K Vol.annual

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%49%
3.0%+36%

$55.7K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines38%
Anduril17%

$215.1K Vol.

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M28%
$1.126M - $1.137M20%

$17.4K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%58%
4.00% to 4.49%14%

$84.7K Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change92%
25 bps increase5%

$10.5K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$809K - $830K25%
$788K - $809K22%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander5%
RBC3%

$82.7K Vol.monthly

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0052%
1600.00–1699.9936%

$22.7K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K47%
$503K - $507K17%

$18.4K Vol.monthly

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.5K Vol.

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3078%
October 3167%

$6.0K Vol.

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%50%
0-1.0%47%

$57.8K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change53%
25 bps increase46%

$41.4K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K31%
$403K - $407K18%

$18.3K Vol.monthly

People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$8.7K Vol.monthly

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%89%
0-1%7%

$111.8K Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M57%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase66%
No change31%

$13.6K Vol.annual

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

4%chance

$245.1K Vol.2 months left

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%76%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.3K Vol.

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

73%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.9K Vol.2 months left

2026 World GDP Growth

3.0%30%
3.1%29%

$76.4K Vol.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

41%chance

$2.2K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change96%
25 bps hike3%

$38.6K Vol.annual

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.944%
43.0 to 45.942%

$26.5K Vol.monthly

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

2.5–2.9%35%
3.0–3.4%33%

$62.1K Vol.annual

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.924%
53.0 to 53.923%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

69%chance

$27.7K Vol.2 months left

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%24%
0.0%–0.8%24%

$43.2K Vol.annual

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

12%chance

$12.6K Vol.2 months left

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%66%
25-29.9%30%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$40.0K Vol.monthly

JPMorgan (JPM) closes at $1T+ market cap by…?

October 3121%
December 3113%

$15.3K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase59%
No change37%

$38.9K Vol.annual

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

No Change71%
25 bps decrease22%

$25.6 Vol.annual

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change49%
25 bps hike42%

$32.6K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$327K+23%
$323K - $327K20%

$14.8K Vol.monthly

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?

4%chance

$10.9K Vol.2 months left

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

22%chance

$27.1K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

3.1%+92%
2.8-3.0%3%

$119.2K Vol.

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%96%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

$718.0K Vol.

US recession by end of 2027?

34%chance

$10.9K Vol.1 year left

Central Bank of Chile decision in December

No change47%
25 bps increase47%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↑ $4.5050%
↓ $4.3048%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Dallas Metro area be on December 31?

$383K - $387K41%
$387K - $391K32%

$8.3 Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?

$463K - $468K32%
$458K - $463K28%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

13%chance

$2.1K Vol.16 days left

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

28%chance

$1.1K Vol.1 year left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3118%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

46%chance

$4.1K Vol.16 days left

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3115%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase76%
No change18%

$33.3K Vol.annual

US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%chance

$0.0 Vol.2 months left

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

5%chance

$823.5 Vol.2 months left

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+46%
1.0-1.2%42%

$63.3K Vol.annual

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

2%chance

$30.3K Vol.2 months left

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.3K Vol.

USMCA extended in 2026?

10%chance

$11.5K Vol.2 months left

Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?

$14.9K Vol.

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

8%chance

$8.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?

50%chance

$28.9 Vol.2 months left

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

9%chance

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?

December 31, 202755%
June 30, 202743%

$636.2 Vol.

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

2%chance

$42.4K Vol.2 months left

Japan recession in 2026?

5%chance

$4.3K Vol.6 months left

UK Recession in 2026?

8%chance

$15.6K Vol.6 months left

SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?

17%chance

$52.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

3%chance

$94.7K Vol.2 months left

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%72%
↓ 6.50%17%

$98.3K Vol.

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

9%chance

$9.7K Vol.4 months left

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

1600.00+46%
1550.00–1599.9930%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

3%chance

$5.8K Vol.2 months left

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

14%chance

$1.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1.2m55%
1.3m16%

$187.9K Vol.

ECB rate cut in 2026?

4%chance

$36.1K Vol.2 months left

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

7%chance

$4.3K Vol.2 months left

US defaults on debt by 2027?

2%chance

$18.5K Vol.2 months left

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

$41 trillion55%
$42 trillion4%

$19.3K Vol.

Economy

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

US recession by end of 2026?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

US recession by end of 2027?

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

US announces another yen intervention by...?