Economy

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change93%
Decrease7%

$61.1K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change71%
25 bps increase24%

$10.2K Vol.annual

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

$33.8K Vol.3 months left

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.73%41%
5.85%20%

$19.8K Vol.

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%86%
2.5-2.9%9%

$76.2K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines34%
Anduril17%

$215.2K Vol.

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%50%
3.0%+43%

$55.8K Vol.

US recession by end of 2026?

$245.1K Vol.2 months left

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.8K Vol.

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

51.0 to 51.922%
53.0 to 53.921%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$403K - $407K33%
$407K - $411K32%

$18.5K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%58%
3.00% to 3.49%13%

$84.7K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%50%
5.50-5.99%21%

$162.9K Vol.

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M27%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$17.4K Vol.monthly

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change92%
25 bps increase5%

$10.5K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$809K - $830K25%
$788K - $809K22%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander4%
RBC3%

$82.7K Vol.monthly

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0054%
1600.00–1699.9933%

$22.7K Vol.monthly

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.5K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$38.2K Vol.monthly

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%50%
0-1.0%47%

$57.8K Vol.monthly

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3079%
October 3167%

$6.0K Vol.

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%76%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.3K Vol.

People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$8.7K Vol.monthly

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%89%
0-1%7%

$111.8K Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase66%
No change31%

$13.6K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change53%
25 bps increase46%

$41.4K Vol.annual

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

4%chance

2026 World GDP Growth

3.0%30%
3.1%29%

$76.4K Vol.

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.925%
53.0 to 53.923%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K47%
$503K - $507K17%

$18.4K Vol.monthly

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

41%chance

$2.2K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change96%
25 bps hike3%

$38.6K Vol.annual

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.944%
43.0 to 45.942%

$26.5K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M61%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

2.5–2.9%35%
3.0–3.4%32%

$62.1K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

69%chance

$27.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

$11.9K Vol.2 months left

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.0%–0.8%25%
0.8%–1.6%23%

$43.2K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase60%
No change37%

$38.9K Vol.annual

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

13%chance

$12.6K Vol.2 months left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$40.0K Vol.monthly

JPMorgan (JPM) closes at $1T+ market cap by…?

December 3117%
October 3110%

$15.3K Vol.

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%66%
25-29.9%30%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

No Change71%
50+ bps decrease22%

$25.6 Vol.annual

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change49%
25 bps hike42%

$32.6K Vol.annual

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

73%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

22%chance

$27.1K Vol.2 months left

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?

4%chance

$10.9K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase53%
No change43%

$93.8K Vol.annual

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

3.1%+92%
2.2–2.4%3%

$119.2K Vol.

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

$718.0K Vol.

US recession by end of 2027?

34%chance

$10.9K Vol.1 year left

Central Bank of Chile decision in December

25 bps decrease48%
No change47%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↑ $4.5050%
↓ $4.3048%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Dallas Metro area be on December 31?

$383K - $387K41%
$387K - $391K32%

$8.3 Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?

$473K - $478K42%
<$458K41%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$327K+23%
$323K - $327K20%

$14.8K Vol.monthly

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

13%chance

$2.1K Vol.16 days left

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

28%chance

$1.1K Vol.1 year left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3117%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

49%chance

$4.1K Vol.16 days left

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3113%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase76%
No change18%

$33.3K Vol.annual

US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%chance

$0.0 Vol.2 months left

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

5%chance

$823.5 Vol.2 months left

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+46%
1.0-1.2%42%

$63.3K Vol.annual

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

$30.3K Vol.2 months left

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.3K Vol.

USMCA extended in 2026?

$11.5K Vol.2 months left

Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?

$14.9K Vol.

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

$8.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?

50%chance

$28.9 Vol.2 months left

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?

December 31, 202754%
June 30, 202743%

$636.2 Vol.

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

$42.4K Vol.2 months left

Japan recession in 2026?

5%chance

$4.3K Vol.6 months left

UK Recession in 2026?

$15.6K Vol.6 months left

Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?

$7.000+64%
$9.000+29%

$23.0K Vol.

SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?

17%chance

$52.6K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

12%chance

$30.9K Vol.2 months left

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

$58.8K Vol.2 months left

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

800–900B43%
700–800B21%

$25.0K Vol.

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

7%chance

$92.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

$94.7K Vol.2 months left

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%73%
↓ 6.50%12%

$98.7K Vol.

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

$9.7K Vol.4 months left

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

1600.00+46%
1550.00–1599.9935%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%96%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

$5.8K Vol.2 months left

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

25%chance

$1.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1.2m53%
1.3m14%

$188.0K Vol.

ECB rate cut in 2026?

4%chance

$36.1K Vol.2 months left

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

7%chance

$4.3K Vol.2 months left

GDP growth in 2026

2.0–2.5%51%
>2.5%49%

$88.5K Vol.monthly

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

10%chance

$13.8K Vol.2 months left

US defaults on debt by 2027?

$18.5K Vol.2 months left

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

$41 trillion54%
$42 trillion4%

$19.3K Vol.

Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

7%chance

$3.6K Vol.4 months left

Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?

$2.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?

$17.2K Vol.2 months left

US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?

$19.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Argentina dollarize by...?