All markets
USMCA extended in 2026?
11%chance
- Yes10.5%
Outcomes
- Yes11%
10.5¢ per share
- No90%
89.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 10.5¢Spread 1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 118.74 | $11.87 |
| 9¢ | 200 | $18.00 |
| 8¢ | 20 | $1.60 |
| 7¢ | 37 | $2.59 |
| 6¢ | 505 | $30.30 |
| 5¢ | 10 | $0.50 |
| 4¢ | 826.03 | $33.04 |
| 3¢ | 2,015.47 | $60.46 |
| 2¢ | 4,523.53 | $90.47 |
| 1¢ | 9,762.78 | $97.63 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 11¢ | 1,765.91 | $194.25 |
| 12¢ | 394.8 | $47.38 |
| 13¢ | 45 | $5.85 |
| 14¢ | 1,142.36 | $159.93 |
| 15¢ | 20 | $3.00 |
| 18¢ | 40 | $7.20 |
| 55¢ | 20 | $11.00 |
| 56¢ | 40 | $22.40 |
| 59¢ | 20 | $11.80 |
| 91¢ | 5.82 | $5.30 |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement. The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement. The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.