Economic Policy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change84%
- 25 bps increase17%
$32.1M Vol.monthly

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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.0M Vol.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

76%chance

$632.2K Vol.59 days left

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase75%
No change23%

$3.0M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change66%
25 bps increase32%

$295.7K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase50%
No change38%

$91.5K Vol.annual

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting36%

$3.8M Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change95%
25 bps increase4%

$197.2K Vol.annual

US recession by end of 2026?

7%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%77%
↑ 4.5%13%

$1.9M Vol.

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%65%
2.5–3.0%16%

$53.1K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase67%
No change31%

$13.3K Vol.annual

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike67%
Hike–Pause–Pause22%

$269.5K Vol.daily

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase68%
No Change15%

$10.5K Vol.monthly

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

12%chance

$176.9K Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%64%
4.0%22%

$6.9M Vol.

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+44%
1.0-1.2%42%

$63.0K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase56%
No change35%

$38.4K Vol.annual

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%16%
4.0%14%

$15.7K Vol.

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%57%
1.2-1.5%31%

$68.4K Vol.annual