All markets
US defaults on debt by 2027?
2%chance
- Yes1.8%
Outcomes
- Yes2%
1.8¢ per share
- No98%
98.3¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 1.8¢Spread 1.9¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8¢ | 30 | $0.24 |
| 0.7¢ | 143 | $1.00 |
| 0.6¢ | 600 | $3.60 |
| 0.4¢ | 2,722 | $10.89 |
| 0.3¢ | 260 | $0.78 |
| 0.2¢ | 5,866 | $11.73 |
| 0.1¢ | 17,438 | $17.44 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.7¢ | 5.06 | $0.14 |
| 2.8¢ | 36.63 | $1.03 |
| 2.9¢ | 100 | $2.90 |
| 3¢ | 301.12 | $9.03 |
| 3.1¢ | 100 | $3.10 |
| 3.3¢ | 110 | $3.63 |
| 45¢ | 952.78 | $428.75 |
| 59¢ | 20 | $11.80 |
| 95.6¢ | 7.41 | $7.08 |
| 95.7¢ | 7.62 | $7.29 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.