Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro85%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva14%
$181.6M Vol.

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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.3M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 1796%

$12.6M Vol.monthly

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

260-27926%
280-29926%

$1.9M Vol.weekly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?

90-114>99%
115-139<1%

$620.6K Vol.daily

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3166%
December 3140%

$40.0M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.0M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.4M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.1M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu94%
Ilie Bolojan1%

$5.2M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

240-25914%
260-27914%

$317.2K Vol.weekly

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an64%
Puma Shen36%

$1.1M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Gavin Newsom14%

$1.3B Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$154.9K Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.6M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 315%
October 31<1%

$73.4M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$434.2K Vol.Ended

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$46.0M Vol.

$711.3M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.5M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson16%

$10.1M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.4M Vol.17 days left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi42%
Jared Kushner40%

$1.4M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić68%
Ilija Srdanović21%

$1.3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3016%

$594.8K Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$246.8K Vol.20 days left

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)91%
Zach Lahn (R)10%

$240.3K Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3138%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202744%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3147%
November 3035%

$1.3M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$297.8K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)5%

$307.4K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%60%
≥ 4.5%20%

$7.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$227.5K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$214.7K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23914%
200-21914%

$52.9K Vol.weekly

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$174.2K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)87%
Michele Tafoya (R)14%

$255.1K Vol.

NY-23 House Election Winner

Nick Langworthy (R)97%
Aaron Gies (D)2%

$87.7K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

14%chance

$216.3K Vol.17 days left

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow76%
Brad Bradford25%

$369.9K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$175.9K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland14%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)70%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.6M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.0K Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202713%

$720.7K Vol.

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202835%
December 31, 202716%

$713.1K Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$767.6K Vol.

TX-04 House Election Winner

Pat Fallon (R)96%
Jason Pearce (D)<1%

$79.4K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$94.6K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)79%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 20%

$550.0K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD75%
Other15%

$80.4K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202722%

$224.6K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Kaitlan Collins88%

$131.7K Vol.monthly

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3128%
October 319%

$358.5K Vol.

NH-02 House Election Winner

$41.7K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez68%
Jon Ossoff14%

$66.3K Vol.

Arizona Governor Election Winner

Katie Hobbs (D)89%
Andy Biggs (R)12%

$132.0K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202645%
November 30, 202630%

$691.3K Vol.

House favorite on November 2 wins the election?

92%chance

$24.2K Vol.20 days left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei88%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

140-15924%
200+21%

$35.6K Vol.daily

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)70%
Sam Forstag (D)32%

$77.0K Vol.

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)97%
Colby Watson (D)3%

$45.1K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$54.7K Vol.

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?

47–49 and 193–20724%
≤46 and ≤19222%

$65.4K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$92.4K Vol.17 days left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3153%
Qatar19%

$154.7K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 5-10%17%
Ruas 10-15%13%

$23.6K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China78%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman77%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3117%
October 319%

$9.4K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

23%chance

$459.2K Vol.2 months left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance

$762.7K Vol.47 days left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3057%
October 3133%

$86.0K Vol.

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

House favorite on November 2 wins the election?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?