Geopolitics

$458.7K Vol.2 months left

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.2M Vol.18 days left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202646%
November 30, 202630%

$691.1K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei88%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3057%
October 3133%

$85.3K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3153%
November 3037%

$1.3M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$54.7K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$92.4K Vol.18 days left

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3178%
November 3060%

$513.2K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3153%
Qatar18%

$154.6K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff43%
Jared Kushner43%

$1.3M Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

23%chance

Trump out as President before 2027?

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman74%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$823.4K Vol.18 days left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance

$762.3K Vol.48 days left

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$142.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

65%chance

$72.6K Vol.2 months left

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202718%
December 3111%

$4.8M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

$43.6K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.7M Vol.

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202756%
March 31, 202741%

$401.2K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3122%
October 318%

$82.5K Vol.

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3150%
October 1548%

$11.3K Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$3.5M Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

337%
229%

$25.0K Vol.

Turkey military action against Yemen by...?

December 3112%
October 311%

$5.2K Vol.

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3114%
October 314%

$55.2K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$501.8K Vol.2 months left

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3163%
October 1552%

$15.3K Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka36%
Kramatorsk10%

$1.7M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.6M Vol.2 months left

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela18%
Kuwait8%

$898.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2832%
Tally Gotliv14%

$45.8K Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1392%
October 1488%

$138.5K Vol.

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3115%
October 1512%

$38.0K Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Mohammed bin Salman98%
Friedrich Merz92%

$207.5K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

31%chance

$64.7K Vol.2 months left

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$222.8K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

1%chance

$23.4K Vol.18 days left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$251.5K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

12%chance

$225.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1578%
October 1663%

$255.4K Vol.monthly

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen13%

$42.0K Vol.

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

12%chance

$20.2K Vol.18 days left

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

13%chance

$325.7K Vol.2 months left

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3123%
October 318%

$336.7K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3076%

$389.9K Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-583%
5-109%

$17.6K Vol.monthly

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 3112%
October 315%

$2.3K Vol.

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

$42.7K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Dario Amodei50%
Sam Altman48%

$51.5K Vol.monthly

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2953%
20-2420%

$43.3K Vol.monthly

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$555.8K Vol.

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3127%
October 3113%

$63.8K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.2M Vol.

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?

December 3141%
November 3018%

$1.9K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

$154.7K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

190-20943%
170-18928%

$4.9K Vol.weekly

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202622%
October 31, 20267%

$109.9K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

80%chance

$823.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by...?

December 3149%
October 3125%

$1.8K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Ofer Winter14%

$30.5K Vol.

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3178%
October 2039%

$1.6K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$513.1K Vol.

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

8%chance

$43.5K Vol.18 days left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 881%
October 678%

$843.3K Vol.monthly

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-868%
9-1016%

$10.4K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 798%
October 495%

$9.8K Vol.monthly

Who will Putin meet bilaterally in Turkmenistan?

$281.5K Vol.2 months left

$36.1K Vol.Ended

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2927%
20-2422%

$5.1K Vol.weekly

Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?

November 3061%
October 3134%

$11.7K Vol.

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

11%chance

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3083%
October 3172%

$1.3K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$532.3K Vol.2 months left

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 3098%
November 1585%

$8.0K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?

20%chance

$34.8K Vol.2 months left

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$421.7K Vol.2 months left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

11%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?

16%chance

$65.0K Vol.2 months left

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3133%
October 3117%

$92.0K Vol.

EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?

December 3193%
October 3176%

$6.3K Vol.monthly

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

$255.8K Vol.2 months left

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

31%chance

$18.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

8%chance

$154.3K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?

December 3119%
October 314%

$5.0K Vol.

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 313%

$559.3K Vol.

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

October 3133%
October 1516%

$9.2K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<459%
4-639%

$9.1K Vol.

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3125%
October 3110%

$329.1K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

11%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

November 3078%
October 3176%

$9.0K Vol.

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3169%
November 3066%

$39.3K Vol.

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3028%
December 316%

$1.9K Vol.

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

24%chance

$58.7K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Kuwait11%
Yemen10%

$79.0K Vol.

Russia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?

9%chance

$714.1 Vol.18 days left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?

November 1576%
October 3146%

$5.5K Vol.monthly

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

$191.7K Vol.2 months left

$6.9K Vol.18 days left

Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

18-20%45%
16-18%25%

$5.0K Vol.

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3137%
October 1518%

$131.5K Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE43%
Turkey21%

$32.6K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland14%
Kuwait7%

$1.7M Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

9%chance

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

10%chance

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1629%
8-1026%

$6.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

March 31, 202763%
December 3135%

$68.2K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$8.4K Vol.8 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 598%
October 896%

$63.0K Vol.monthly

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3157%
October 152%

$10.3K Vol.

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Ursula von der Leyen46%
Mark Rutte28%

$564.7K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?

190-20940%
210-22938%

$7.2K Vol.weekly

EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...?

December 3113%
October 31<1%

$3.1K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo