World

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson16%

$10.1M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3126%
October 318%

$8.9M Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland14%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.0K Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$213.4K Vol.annual

$121.1K Vol.annual

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%56%
Remain 60–80%21%

$27.0K Vol.

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

$563.0K Vol.2 months left

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov14%

$1.2M Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202717%
December 31, 20269%

$257.1K Vol.

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3195%
October 3189%

$885.1K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman79%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202735%

$2.9M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$61.1K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$228.3K Vol.2 months left

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$50.3K Vol.1 day left

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

The Democrats55%
Yisrael Beiteinu53%

$56.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$39.2K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas <5%16%
Ruas 20%+10%

$27.2K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon40%
Édouard Philippe37%

$11.2K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Tally Gotliv14%

$49.0K Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP87%
PSOE14%

$104.2K Vol.

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

43%chance

$53.4K Vol.2 months left

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202733%
December 31, 202611%

$2.6K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan18%
Germany16%

$680.9K Vol.annual

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%49%
5.50-5.99%21%

$162.8K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

11%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

French election called by...?

8%chance

$10.1K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Blue and White vote share?

0.75-1.25%52%
<0.75%46%

$5.5K Vol.

Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

<2.75%40%
2.75-3.25%30%

$3.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

24-2523%
26-2723%

$19.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<466%
4-631%

$11.2K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen88%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon5%

$14.3K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon41%
Édouard Philippe24%

$7.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout

78-80%60%
76-78%18%

$12.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Yaron Zelekha17%

$45.4K Vol.

Macron out by...?

$534.6K Vol.2 months left

$39.9K Vol.2 months left

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

29%chance

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

467%
514%

$7.6M Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$173.2K Vol.2 months left

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%51%
1.1 – 1.5%27%

$113.6K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Estonia Parliamentary Election Winner

Isamaa54%
Centre Party28%

$1.5K Vol.

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

91%chance

Federal District Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Celina 20-25%35%
Celina 25%+25%

$4.5K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

Linke59%
Grüne53%

$21.3K Vol.

Israel Election: The Joint List vote share?

6.5-7.5%35%
5.5-6.5%33%

$2.9K Vol.

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

5-6%42%
6-7%35%

$7.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?

6-7%45%
5-6%28%

$4.3K Vol.

Israel Election: Together vote share?

7-9%34%
9-11%33%

$3.7K Vol.

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

75%chance

$7.2K Vol.5 months left

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?

<2.5%35%
2.5-3.25%24%

$4.7K Vol.

Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner

$7.4K Vol.

Vancouver-Langara British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Jaime Stein71%
Sunita Dhir25%

$2.7K Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

$15.4K Vol.

Tocantins Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Vicentinho 4%+27%
Vicentinho <4%26%

$3.4K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Cadu wins25%
Allyson 3-6%25%

$9.1K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$24.5K Vol.2 months left

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$274.5K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-869%
9-1018%

$11.5K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

AfD52%
Grüne33%

$59.4K Vol.

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

$26.4K Vol.8 months left

Israel Election: Joint List # of seats?

6-739%
8-937%

$4.8K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

19%chance

$7.0K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

$15.7K Vol.8 months left

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$82.7K Vol.

Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...?

December 313%
October 31<1%

$7.1K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen13%

$42.7K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?

16%chance

$11.9K Vol.8 months left

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%50%
Iotova 10-20%31%

$13.8K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Paul Choi40%
David Xie38%

$1.4K Vol.

New pandemic in 2026?

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

$167.3K Vol.2 months left

Acre Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Mailza 20%+44%
Mailza 10-15%31%

$4.3K Vol.

Vancouver-Yaletown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Margareta Dovgal49%
Terry Yung30%

$3.8K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

$14.3K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$395.2K Vol.2 months left

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Ra'am96%
RZP-Zehut86%

$14.6K Vol.

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202720%
December 31, 20266%

$172.8K Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE41%
Turkey21%

$33.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

$6.6K Vol.13 days left

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

532%
424%

$9.5K Vol.

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

December 31, 202618%
October 31, 202612%

$363.0K Vol.

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

$235.0K Vol.2 months left

$43.2K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

1%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

9%chance

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Li Xi6%
Ding Xuexiang5%

$251.5K Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$862.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

11%chance

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change44%

$93.8K Vol.annual

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202728%
December 31, 20265%

$33.4K Vol.

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

86%chance

$350.0 Vol.46 days left

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

2%chance

$378.5K Vol.5 days left

El Salvador Legislative Election: 3rd Place

PCN32%
PAIS28%

$6.6K Vol.

Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Kevin Acton74%
Harwinder Sandhu18%

$5.4K Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.3K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

10+33%
8-932%

$8.0K Vol.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

SDP BiH84%
HDZ BiH8%

$8.1K Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$567.0K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

<1%chance

$23.7K Vol.17 days left

Surrey-Fleetwood British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Garry Purewal46%
Jagrup Brar38%

$2.2K Vol.

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

8%chance

$191.9K Vol.2 months left

Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner

$135.0K Vol.

El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place

PCN42%
ARENA26%

$10.2K Vol.

Courtenay-Comox British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Brennan Day67%
Will Cole-Hamilton26%

$1.9K Vol.

Israel Election: Religious Zionist Party–Zehut vote share?

5-6%38%
6%+35%

$4.4K Vol.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

14%chance

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine election held by...?

$239.2K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase24%

$9.9K Vol.annual

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

$182.4K Vol.2 months left

Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?

$21.4K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Shas vote share?

6-7%46%
<6%32%

$3.5K Vol.

Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Aziz 15%+32%
Aziz 6-10%31%

$5.9K Vol.

Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Harj Dhaliwal43%
Jessie Sunner30%

$3.5K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?