World

114 events

Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro86%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva14%
$181.2M Vol.

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Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen43%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.4M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$994.7K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson15%

$10.1M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.9M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$8.9M Vol.

$40.2M Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov14%

$1.2M Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen88%
David Lisnard4%

$13.3K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

5%chance

$563.0K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Ofer Winter16%

$38.5K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3189%
October 3168%

$881.5K Vol.

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change82%
25 bps increase18%

$114.0K Vol.annual

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

1%chance

$48.9K Vol.1 day left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

5%chance

$228.2K Vol.2 months left

French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon43%
Édouard Philippe37%

$9.9K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202736%

$2.9M Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%61%
Remain 60–80%23%

$21.4K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$59.0K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Yisrael Beiteinu53%
The Democrats50%

$55.0K Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$201.2K Vol.annual

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2836%
Tally Gotliv16%

$48.9K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

4%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

<1%chance

$23.7K Vol.17 days left

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

South Korea18%
Germany15%

$680.9K Vol.annual

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon39%
Gabriel Attal22%

$6.7K Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP86%
PSOE14%

$102.6K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 20%+23%
Ruas <5%11%

$26.0K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%47%
5.50-5.99%24%

$162.5K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$174.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

<2.75%41%
2.75-3.25%30%

$3.1K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

AfD63%
Grüne31%

$58.8K Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

5%chance

$273.6K Vol.2 months left

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

56%chance

$51.7K Vol.2 months left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout

78-80%60%
76-78%18%

$12.0K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<477%
4-619%

$10.9K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

8%chance

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Macron out by...?

4%chance

$39.9K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Blue and White vote share?

<0.75%48%
0.75-1.25%46%

$5.0K Vol.

French election called by...?

8%chance

$9.5K Vol.2 months left

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Iran Nuke before 2027?

3%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha17%

$45.0K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

20-2131%
22-2324%

$18.4K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$252.8K Vol.

Federal District Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Celina 20-25%38%
Celina 10-15%30%

$4.3K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Allyson 10-15%28%
Allyson 3-6%27%

$9.0K Vol.

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?

6-7%36%
5-6%28%

$4.2K Vol.

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

74%chance

$7.1K Vol.5 months left

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%50%
Iotova 10-20%31%

$13.8K Vol.

Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner

Gintautas Kindurys45%
Ignotas Adomavičius20%

$7.0K Vol.

Israel Election: The Joint List vote share?

6.5-7.5%34%
5.5-6.5%29%

$2.5K Vol.

Estonia Parliamentary Election Winner

Isamaa63%
Centre Party30%

$974.9 Vol.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

$533.1K Vol.2 months left

Surrey City Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Zeeshan Wahla44%
Amna Shah37%

$2.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

20%chance

$6.6K Vol.13 days left

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

$15.0K Vol.

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

20%chance

$6.9K Vol.2 months left

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase25%

$9.7K Vol.annual

Tocantins Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Vicentinho 4%+41%
Vicentinho <4%29%

$2.9K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$15.7K Vol.8 months left

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$26.2K Vol.8 months left

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$82.7K Vol.

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202730%
December 31, 20265%

$33.2K Vol.

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

5-6%36%
6-7%34%

$6.7K Vol.

Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Paul Choi55%
David Xie28%

$1.4K Vol.

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

64%chance

$2.1K Vol.2 months left

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$23.9K Vol.2 months left

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202716%
December 31, 20268%

$250.6K Vol.

Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...?

December 313%
October 31<1%

$7.0K Vol.

Israel Election: Together vote share?

9-11%37%
7-9%23%

$3.0K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%53%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen13%

$42.5K Vol.

Richmond-Steveston British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Gordon Zhang77%
Bruce Kong17%

$3.4K Vol.

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

7%chance

$7.5K Vol.2 months left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

11%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Ra'am96%
RZP-Zehut85%

$14.6K Vol.

New pandemic in 2026?

5%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Ukraine election called by...?

6%chance

$97.5K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2837%
Yoav Ben-Tzur22%

$14.1K Vol.

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

5%chance

$167.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$395.2K Vol.2 months left

Acre Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Mailza 20%+41%
Mailza 10-15%37%

$4.2K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland16%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE41%
Turkey22%

$33.0K Vol.

Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Garry Thind54%
Garry Begg24%

$1.6K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase53%
No change43%

$93.5K Vol.annual

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

5%chance

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

7%chance

$115.8K Vol.2 months left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

Ukraine lowers conscription age by...?

March 3119%
December 316%

$4.0K Vol.

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

5%chance

$449.2K Vol.5 months left

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

16%chance

$35.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$34.9K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Shas vote share?

6-7%40%
<6%33%

$3.1K Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

473%
513%

$7.6M Vol.

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202720%
December 31, 20265%

$172.3K Vol.

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Israel14%
Mexico14%

$401.6K Vol.annual

Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

SDP BiH81%
HDZ BiH11%

$7.9K Vol.

World

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

Netanyahu out by...?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Macron out by...?

French election called by...?

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

New pandemic in 2026?

Ukraine election called by...?

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?