Iran

$101.0K Vol.17 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3182%
October 1577%

$21.1K Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3187%
October 1574%

$17.0K Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?

25-2939%
30-3430%

$54.4K Vol.weekly

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$50.6K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$116.0K Vol.monthly

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

October 3169%
November 3068%

$5.2K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+49%
2.7-2.8M19%

$45.9K Vol.monthly

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$145.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$273.6K Vol.2 months left

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$826.8K Vol.17 days left

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 315%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3166%
October 2037%

$4.4K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3114%
October 315%

$22.8K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$38.1K Vol.monthly

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 316%
October 154%

$22.0K Vol.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$557.4K Vol.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202734%
June 30, 202730%

$8.5M Vol.

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 318%
October 313%

$4.2K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

<2027%
25-2926%

$7.1K Vol.weekly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

5%chance

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-588%
5-1010%

$20.1K Vol.monthly

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 598%
October 896%

$64.8K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M62%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$8.5K Vol.17 days left

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

$502.7K Vol.2 months left

$5.8K Vol.17 days left

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3126%
October 316%

$329.3K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3155%
Qatar19%

$155.4K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

190-20930%
170-18928%

$5.8K Vol.weekly

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$15.7K Vol.8 months left

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

10%chance

$605.2K Vol.2 months left

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2954%
20-2420%

$43.9K Vol.monthly

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3185%
October 152%

$10.8K Vol.

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

25%chance

$19.1K Vol.2 months left

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3127%
October 3113%

$64.2K Vol.

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

$20.6K Vol.17 days left

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3141%
October 1512%

$131.7K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
32M+86%

$33.7K Vol.monthly

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2027%
20-2415%

$386.1 Vol.weekly

Houthis target Syria by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$4.1K Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

473%
513%

$7.6M Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$862.2K Vol.2 months left

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

12%chance

$21.2K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?

210-22936%
190-20936%

$7.5K Vol.weekly

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3117%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

17%chance

$6.2K Vol.17 days left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

13%chance

$3.5K Vol.2 months left

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 3114%
October 311%

$407.2K Vol.

Will Iran target Qatar by...?

$974.4 Vol.17 days left

Houthi military action against Mecca by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$7.0K Vol.

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3053%
October 3124%

$17.4K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$39.9K Vol.monthly

Will Iran target Oman by...?

November 3021%
October 314%

$45.1K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

190-20930%
230+19%

$96.9 Vol.weekly

Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?

December 3117%
October 315%

$5.0K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

September 2191%
September 2991%

$182.8K Vol.monthly

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

$119.8K Vol.2 months left

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

10+28%
20+10%

$4.3K Vol.monthly

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

$53.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Syria by...?

$2.1K Vol.17 days left

Will Iran target Kuwait by...?

October 3121%
October 1517%

$24.1K Vol.

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$234.6K Vol.2 months left

$30.1K Vol.17 days left

IEA asks Germany to release oil stocks by...?

October 3133%
December 3130%

$6.6K Vol.

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

10%chance

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 3124%
October 318%

$250.6K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$15.4K Vol.1 year left

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

October 313%
October 15<1%

$13.8K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$641.4K Vol.2 months left

European military action against Iran by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$328.7K Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

September 2527%
September 2418%

$122.1K Vol.monthly

Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?

9%chance

$153.2 Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

11%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

14%chance

$6.5K Vol.17 days left

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

7%chance

$4.7K Vol.17 days left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.0M Vol.

Will Iran target Bahrain by...?

32%chance

$2.5K Vol.17 days left

IEA asks France to release oil stocks by...?

December 3146%
October 3131%

$3.9K Vol.

Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?

December 3163%
October 3125%

$2.0 Vol.

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

December 316%
November 304%

$380.3 Vol.

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↑ $4.5050%
↓ $4.3047%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

10%chance

$290.4 Vol.17 days left

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

12%chance

$2.1K Vol.17 days left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

$1.3K Vol.17 days left

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?

$63.1K Vol.Ended

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

7%chance

$35.5K Vol.17 days left

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

31%chance

$27.9K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

US28%
Australia18%

$51.2K Vol.monthly

Will Iran target Egypt by...?

$1.3K Vol.17 days left

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

November 3030%
October 315%

$97.2K Vol.

Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

1%chance

$1.3K Vol.17 days left

Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

1%chance

$1.0K Vol.17 days left

Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$2.1K Vol.17 days left

Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$1.2K Vol.17 days left

Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$643.6 Vol.17 days left

Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

December 315%
October 31<1%

$118.0K Vol.

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

$125.7K Vol.2 months left

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

14%chance

$25.9K Vol.2 months left

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

11%chance

$281.5K Vol.2 months left

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

12%chance

$13.2K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?