Iran

120 events

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1597%
- October 3182%
$12.2M Vol.monthly

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3142%

$39.7M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3184%

$34.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.2M Vol.

$75.9M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$84.3K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$163.3K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3119%
October 317%

$261.0K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3118%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 595%
October 1194%

$35.6K Vol.monthly

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3137%
November 3035%

$324.4K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$46.1K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3064%
October 3144%

$104.6K Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3025%

$1.8M Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3120%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202642%
November 30, 202632%

$703.4K Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202718%
December 3111%

$4.8M Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$3.5M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3122%
November 3017%

$523.9K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 318%

$346.5K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3114%
October 315%

$22.8K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$101.0K Vol.18 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner42%
Steve Witkoff42%

$1.3M Vol.

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3170%
October 1565%

$19.8K Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$50.6K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance

$764.8K Vol.48 days left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?

25-2943%
30-3430%

$54.3K Vol.weekly

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

October 3169%
November 3068%

$4.6K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$502.7K Vol.2 months left

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3165%
October 2034%

$4.2K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

3.0 - 3.5M28%
2.5 - 3.0M27%

$115.5K Vol.monthly

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3164%
October 1562%

$14.5K Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

4%chance

$145.8K Vol.2 months left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$826.8K Vol.18 days left

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$557.4K Vol.

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 315%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+57%
2.7-2.8M20%

$44.5K Vol.monthly

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 3112%
October 315%

$2.6K Vol.

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 317%
October 154%

$22.0K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$37.8K Vol.monthly

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202734%
June 30, 202730%

$8.5M Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-584%
5-1012%

$19.9K Vol.monthly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

5%chance

$273.6K Vol.2 months left

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M69%
270M7%

$32.6K Vol.monthly

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 598%
October 896%

$64.6K Vol.monthly

Iran Nuke before 2027?

3%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

2%chance

$8.5K Vol.18 days left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2923%
<2022%

$6.2K Vol.weekly

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

7%chance

$5.8K Vol.18 days left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

190-20936%
170-18928%

$5.6K Vol.weekly

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3126%
October 318%

$329.3K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3156%
Qatar19%

$155.4K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.2M Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

10%chance

$605.2K Vol.2 months left

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2954%
20-2420%

$43.9K Vol.monthly

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

11%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3185%
October 152%

$10.8K Vol.

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

39%chance

$19.0K Vol.2 months left

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3141%
October 1512%

$131.7K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$15.4K Vol.8 months left

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

8%chance

$20.6K Vol.17 days left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

30-3425%
<2020%

$386.1 Vol.weekly

Houthis target Syria by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$4.1K Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

473%
513%

$7.6M Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$33.6K Vol.monthly

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

14%chance

$6.5K Vol.18 days left

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3129%
October 3113%

$64.1K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?

190-20938%
210-22935%

$7.5K Vol.weekly

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.0M Vol.

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3053%
October 3124%

$17.4K Vol.

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3118%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

17%chance

$6.2K Vol.17 days left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

13%chance

$3.5K Vol.2 months left

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 3114%
October 311%

$407.2K Vol.

Will Iran target Qatar by...?

5%chance

$974.4 Vol.17 days left

Houthi military action against Mecca by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$7.0K Vol.

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

4%chance

$119.8K Vol.2 months left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$39.9K Vol.monthly

Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?

December 3116%
October 314%

$5.0K Vol.

Will Iran target Oman by...?

November 3021%
October 314%

$45.1K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

190-20930%
230+19%

$96.9 Vol.weekly

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

September 2192%
September 2991%

$182.8K Vol.monthly

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

10+51%
30+14%

$4.3K Vol.monthly

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

8%chance

$53.4K Vol.2 months left

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

3%chance

$861.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Syria by...?

3%chance

$2.1K Vol.17 days left

Will Iran target Kuwait by...?

October 3124%
October 1522%

$24.1K Vol.

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

8%chance

$30.1K Vol.18 days left

IEA asks Germany to release oil stocks by...?

October 3133%
December 3130%

$6.6K Vol.

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

10%chance

$234.6K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 3124%
October 318%

$250.6K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$15.4K Vol.1 year left

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

October 313%
October 15<1%

$13.8K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

3%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$641.4K Vol.2 months left

European military action against Iran by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$328.7K Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

September 2418%
September 2516%

$122.1K Vol.monthly

Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?

9%chance

$153.2 Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

7%chance

$4.7K Vol.18 days left

IEA asks France to release oil stocks by...?

December 3136%
October 3126%

$3.9K Vol.

Will Iran target Bahrain by...?

36%chance

$2.5K Vol.18 days left

Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?

December 3176%
October 3126%

$0.0 Vol.

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

December 316%
November 304%

$380.3 Vol.

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↑ $4.5050%
↓ $4.3047%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

10%chance

$290.4 Vol.18 days left

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

11%chance

$2.1K Vol.18 days left

Iran

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

Will Iran target Qatar by...?

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Will Iran target Syria by...?

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

Will Iran target Bahrain by...?

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?