All markets

Fed Decision in October?

• No change87%YesNo
• 25 bps increase14%YesNo

Brazil Presidential Election

• Flávio Bolsonaro78%YesNo
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva22%YesNo

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

• 340-35969%YesNo
• 360-37927%YesNo

Next French Presidential Election

• Marine Le Pen46%YesNo
• Édouard Philippe20%YesNo

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud

• 2R. Jodar100%
• 1C. Ruud0%

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

• October 16>99%YesNo
• October 1797%YesNo

Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Maria Sakkari

• 2M. Chwalinska82%
• 1M. Sakkari19%

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

• Harry Kane64%YesNo
• Lamine Yamal28%YesNo

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

• ↓ 80,00070%YesNo
• ↑ 85,00057%YesNo

East Carolina vs. UAB

• 17East Carolina0%
• 30UAB100%

Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs

• NIP22%
• Liquid79%

Bitcoin above ___ on October 16?

• 72,000>99%YesNo
• 74,000>99%YesNo

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

• October 1896%YesNo
• October 2194%YesNo

MLB World Series Champion 2026

• Milwaukee Brewers64%YesNo
• Cleveland Guardians20%YesNo

Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion

• 23Georgia Southern100%
• 15Old Dominion0%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

• Democrats Sweep63%YesNo
• R Senate, D House28%YesNo

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

• Barcelona24%YesNo
• Paris Saint-Germain16%YesNo

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

• March 3158%YesNo
• December 3135%YesNo

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

• San Francisco 49ers13%YesNo
• Buffalo Bills12%YesNo

Which party will win the House in 2026?

• Democratic Party91%YesNo
• Republican Party10%YesNo

Mallorca: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Rebeka Masarova

• 1A. Olmo56%
• 1R. Masarova44%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

• J.D. Vance48%YesNo
• Marco Rubio14%YesNo

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

• Flávio Bolsonaro <4%41%YesNo
• Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%28%YesNo

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%YesNo
• Gavin Newsom15%YesNo

NBA: 2027 Champion

• San Antonio Spurs22%YesNo
• Oklahoma City Thunder20%YesNo

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

• ↑ 90,00059%YesNo
• ↓ 70,00039%YesNo

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

• Gadi Eizenkot47%YesNo
• Benjamin Netanyahu31%YesNo

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

• No Hormuz Agreement94%YesNo
• Hormuz Agreement; D Senate3%YesNo

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

• Oil ≥ $80; D Senate61%YesNo
• Oil ≥ $80; R Senate31%YesNo

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

• ↓ 2,25056%YesNo
• ↑ 3,00039%YesNo

EPL: 2027 Champion

• Arsenal64%YesNo
• Manchester City19%YesNo

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

• 380-39915%YesNo
• 360-37915%YesNo

What price will Bitcoin hit October 12-18?

• ↓ 80,00025%YesNo
• ↑ 84,00017%YesNo

Ethereum above ___ on October 16?

• 2,000>99%YesNo
• 2,100>99%YesNo

Fulham FC vs. Hull City AFC

• Fulham56%
• Hull City AFC44%

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T86%YesNo
• ↑$1.75T70%YesNo

Worlds 2026: Winner

• Gen.G32%YesNo
• Hanwha Life Esports19%YesNo

LoL: MVK Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In

• MVK Esports19%
• Karmine Corp82%

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul

• 0D. Medvedev72%
• 1T. Paul28%

Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC - More Markets

• O/U 0.573%YesNo
• Western Sydney Wanderers FC O/U 0.572%YesNo

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

• Democratic Party65%YesNo
• Republican Party38%YesNo

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln

• Frankfurt53%
• Köln48%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

• JD Vance21%YesNo
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%YesNo

Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Resp Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

• Team Tidebound51%
• Resp Gaming50%

Panthers vs. Eagles

• Panthers64%
• Eagles37%

Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs

• 100 Thieves57%
• G2 Esports43%

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

• Yashar68%YesNo
• Likud33%YesNo

LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team WE (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs

• BNK FEARX68%
• Team WE33%

Iran leadership change by...?

• June 30, 202726%YesNo
• December 3112%YesNo

Texas Senate Election Winner

• James Talarico (D)63%YesNo
• Ken Paxton (R)38%YesNo

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?

• ↓ $9593%YesNo
• ↑ $10061%YesNo

Largest Company end of December 2026?

• NVIDIA69%YesNo
• Apple29%YesNo

What price will Ethereum hit October 12-18?

• ↓ 2,40040%YesNo
• ↑ 2,50031%YesNo

Bitcoin above ___ on October 17?

• 74,000>99%YesNo
• 76,000>99%YesNo

LALIGA: 2027 Champion

• Barcelona81%YesNo
• Real Madrid16%YesNo

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

• December 3139%YesNo
• November 3025%YesNo

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

• December 314%YesNo
• October 31<1%YesNo

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $2.0–$2.25T28%YesNo
• $1.75–$2.0T24%YesNo

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs

• Astralis47%
• MIBR54%

Mallorca: Julia Grabher vs Ariana Geerlings

• 0J. Grabher<1%
• 2Ariana Geerlings>99%

Dota 2: CyberHero vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A

• CyberHero>99%
• Zero Tenacity<1%

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

• October 18>99%YesNo
• October 2199%YesNo

Jinan: Martin Landaluce vs Keegan Smith

• 2M. Landaluce100%
• 1K. Smith0%

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

• December 3139%YesNo
• October 3111%YesNo

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

• 115-13941%YesNo
• 90-11441%YesNo

Commanders vs. 49ers

• Commanders23%
• 49ers78%

What price will Ethereum hit in October?

• ↓ 2,40084%YesNo
• ↑ 2,50081%YesNo

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 16?

• ↓ 81,00038%YesNo
• ↑ 83,00030%YesNo

Fed Decision in December?

• 25 bps increase79%YesNo
• No change19%YesNo

Alaska Senate Election Winner

• Mary Peltola74%YesNo
• Sen. Dan Sullivan26%YesNo

Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC

• 0Sydney30%
• 0Western Sydney Wanderers70%

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google70%YesNo
• Anthropic28%YesNo

Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 16?

• 25°C>99%YesNo
• 19°C or below<1%YesNo

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

• 0 (0 bps)97%YesNo
• 1 (25 bps)<1%YesNo

Bitcoin price on October 16?

• 80,000-82,00052%YesNo
• 82,000-84,00046%YesNo

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

• December 3114%YesNo
• November 3010%YesNo

Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Execration (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

• Yangon Galacticos35%
• Execration66%

Anthropic IPO by __?

• December 31, 202672%YesNo
• December 15, 202668%YesNo

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

• December 3131%YesNo
• November 3022%YesNo

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - BLAST Slam China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

• Xtreme Gaming99%
• Cloud Dawning1%

Olbia: Tom Gentzsch vs Damir Dzumhur

• 0T. Gentzsch2%
• 1D. Dzumhur98%

LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Worlds Play-In

• FURIA Esports19%
• Cloud982%

Jinan: Alexander Shevchenko vs Mattia Bellucci

• 0A. Shevchenko<1%
• 2M. Bellucci>99%

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A

• Aurora Gaming69%
• 9z32%

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

• Luca Niculescu92%YesNo
• Alexandru Nazare1%YesNo

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

• December 3130%YesNo
• November 3026%YesNo

Ravens vs. Browns

• Ravens67%
• Browns34%

Frosinone Calcio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio

• Frosinone Calcio41%
• Sassuolo60%

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

• Javier Milei49%YesNo
• Axel Kicillof30%YesNo

Tasmania JackJumpers vs. Adelaide 36ers

• Tasmania JackJumpers<1%
• Adelaide 36ers>99%

Saints vs. Giants

• Saints52%
• Giants49%

Titans vs. Colts

• Titans26%
• Colts75%

Bitcoin above ___ on October 21?

• 72,000>99%YesNo
• 74,00099%YesNo

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

• March 31, 202724%YesNo
• December 319%YesNo

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX64%YesNo
• Anthropic37%YesNo

Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B

• Legacy63%
• BetBoom Team38%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

• December 31, 202769%YesNo
• November 30, 202764%YesNo

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

• December 3113%YesNo
• November 307%YesNo

Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Sangal (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs

• 100 Thieves71%
• Sangal30%

Highest temperature in Beijing on October 16?

• 20°C>99%YesNo
• 13°C or below<1%YesNo

Highest temperature in Chicago on October 16?

• 56-57°F93%YesNo
• 58-59°F7%YesNo

Highest temperature in Wellington on October 16?

• 11°C>99%YesNo
• 6°C or below<1%YesNo

Highest temperature in London on October 16?

• 17°C95%YesNo
• 18°C5%YesNo

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

• Chiang Wan-an63%YesNo
• Puma Shen38%YesNo

Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 16?

• 23°C>99%YesNo
• 17°C or below<1%YesNo

Serie A: 2027 Champion

• Inter Milan60%YesNo
• Roma14%YesNo

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

• No Hormuz Agreement97%YesNo
• Hormuz Agreement; D Senate2%YesNo

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

• 2 (50 bps)68%YesNo
• 1 (25 bps)22%YesNo

Ethereum price on October 16?

• 2,400-2,50090%YesNo
• 2,300-2,4005%YesNo

Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 16?

• 25°C>99%YesNo
• 26°C<1%YesNo

Highest temperature in Austin on October 16?

• 74-75°F94%YesNo
• 76-77°F7%YesNo

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

• December 3199%YesNo
• October 3187%YesNo

Bears vs. Falcons

• Bears51%
• Falcons50%

Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch?

• $25M93%YesNo
• $50M90%YesNo

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

• Nicolás Maduro71%YesNo
• Delcy Rodríguez23%YesNo

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

• Oil ≥ $85; D Senate51%YesNo
• Oil ≥ $85; R Senate26%YesNo

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

• Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems37%YesNo
• Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps21%YesNo

IF Brommapojkarna vs. Djurgardens IF

• IF Brommapojkarna17%
• Djurgardens IF84%

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln - More Markets

• O/U 0.597%YesNo
• Eintracht Frankfurt O/U 0.590%YesNo

Highest temperature in Busan on October 16?

• 25°C>99%YesNo
• 20°C or below<1%YesNo

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians

• Rays51%
• Guardians50%

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 16?

• 29°C>99%YesNo
• 30°C<1%YesNo

Texans vs. Jaguars

• Texans44%
• Jaguars56%

Highest temperature in Milan on October 16?

• 21°C56%YesNo
• 22°C40%YesNo

Virginia vs. SMU

• Virginia25%
• SMU75%

W35 Heraklion: Alisa Oktiabreva vs Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni

• Alisa Oktiabreva>99%
• Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni<1%

Michigan Senate Election Winner

• Abdul El-Sayed (D)70%YesNo
• Mike Rogers (R)30%YesNo

Highest temperature in Dallas on October 16?

• 65°F or below45%YesNo
• 66-67°F43%YesNo

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

• December 3124%YesNo
• October 317%YesNo

Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs

• fnatic34%
• Heroic67%

Cowboys vs. Packers

• Cowboys48%
• Packers53%

Israel military action against Syria by...?

• November 3028%YesNo
• October 3117%YesNo

Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Revise (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #12 Group C

• Lilmix97%
• Revise3%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

• December 319%YesNo
• October 311%YesNo

Largest Company end of October 2026?

• NVIDIA86%YesNo
• Apple14%YesNo

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

• Aleksandar Vučić70%YesNo
• Ilija Srdanović23%YesNo

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

• CXMT31%YesNo
• CATL21%YesNo

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

• June 30, 202710%YesNo
• December 31, 20264%YesNo

Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona

• Betis14%
• Barcelona86%

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

• Nithya Raman56%YesNo
• Karen Bass45%YesNo

"Resident Evil" total domestic gross by October 31?

• 150 - 160m87%YesNo
• 160 - 170m9%YesNo

UNLV vs. Air Force

• UNLV51%
• Air Force50%

West Indies Tour of India T20s: India vs West Indies

• India68%
• West Indies32%

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

• 260-2799%YesNo
• 280-2999%YesNo

RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Levante UD - More Markets

• O/U 0.593%YesNo
• RC Deportivo A Coruña O/U 0.580%YesNo

Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 16?

• 23°C>99%YesNo
• 18°C or below<1%YesNo

Highest temperature in Singapore on October 16?

• 33°C>99%YesNo
• 27°C or below<1%YesNo

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

• Hike–Pause–Hike69%YesNo
• Hike–Pause–Pause17%YesNo

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

• Flavio Bolsonaro73%YesNo
• Lula28%YesNo

Utah vs. Colorado

• Utah87%
• Colorado14%

What price will Solana hit in October?

• ↓ 10062%YesNo
• ↑ 11061%YesNo

Psim Yogyakarta vs. PSM Makassar - More Markets

• O/U 0.5>99%YesNo
• O/U 1.5>99%YesNo

FL-18 House Election Winner

• Scott Franklin (R)93%YesNo
• Curtis Gibson (D)5%YesNo

Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC

• Everton30%
• Chelsea71%

Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 16?

• 21°C97%YesNo
• 22°C<1%YesNo

Ethereum above ___ on October 17?

• 2,000>99%YesNo
• 2,100>99%YesNo

# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?

• 40-60M71%YesNo
• 60-80M26%YesNo

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

• No Change77%YesNo
• Decrease22%YesNo

Rutgers vs. Maryland

• Rutgers35%
• Maryland66%

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

• No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate62%YesNo
• No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate32%YesNo

Wuhan Tennis Open: Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek

• A. Li22%
• I. Swiatek79%

MLB: 2026 American League Champion

• Cleveland Guardians62%YesNo
• Tampa Bay Rays37%YesNo

Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries

• Dream42%
• Valkyries59%

Worlds 2026 Winning Region

• LCK (South Korea)69%YesNo
• LPL (China)24%YesNo

Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Closed Qualifier Playoffs

• Eternal Fire81%
• Betclic Apogee Esports19%

UEFA EURO 2028: Winner

• Spain23%YesNo
• France19%YesNo

Raptors vs. Pistons

• Raptors22%
• Pistons79%

Counter-Strike: Voca vs Phantom (BO1) - Elisa BreakOut Series #2 Group B

• Voca<1%
• Phantom>99%

Highest temperature in Munich on October 16?

• 19°C50%YesNo
• 20°C31%YesNo

Highest temperature in Paris on October 16?

• 21°C51%YesNo
• 22°C41%YesNo

Chargers vs. Chiefs

• Chargers22%
• Chiefs79%

North Carolina vs. Duke

• North Carolina43%
• Duke57%

Bitcoin price on October 17?

• 80,000-82,00049%YesNo
• 82,000-84,00043%YesNo

# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on day 1?

• 20-40M>99%YesNo
• 40-60M<1%YesNo

Auburn vs. Georgia

• Auburn10%
• Georgia91%

SpaceX (SPCX) closes week of Oct 12 at ___?

• $150-$15529%YesNo
• $145-$15012%YesNo