Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change61%
- 25 bps increase38%
$38.4M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase79%
No change20%

$3.4M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change55%
25 bps increase43%

$478.8K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA76%
Apple22%

$8.3M Vol.monthly

$54.1M Vol.

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

<1%chance

$2.7K Vol.13 hours left

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike56%
Hike–Hike–Hike20%

$318.0K Vol.daily

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA87%
Apple12%

$313.9K Vol.monthly

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$577.5K Vol.annual

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$213.4K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change74%
25 bps increase27%

$121.1K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%65%
5.5%40%

$980.9K Vol.weekly

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease88%
No Change6%

$59.3K Vol.annual

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

64%chance

$39.2K Vol.12 days left

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet87%
Microsoft13%

$61.5K Vol.monthly

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%68%
5.80%54%

$217.5K Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change81%
25 bps increase19%

$177.0K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K36%
$397K - $407K26%

$20.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease12%

$78.5K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+53%
2.7-2.8M22%

$46.1K Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%27%
-0.3% to -0.1%17%

$36.5K Vol.annual

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%47%
3.0-3.5%28%

$50.5K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$116.6K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.8K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%48%
4.50-4.99%23%

$162.8K Vol.

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%39%
3.5-3.9%34%

$62.9K Vol.monthly

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3062%
$2.10 to $2.2025%

$35.6K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause60%
Pause-Hike-Hike11%

$33.7K Vol.daily

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$38.1K Vol.monthly

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet60%
Microsoft30%

$71.4K Vol.monthly

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%50%
2.5%39%

$49.9K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M59%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%52%
1.2-1.5%36%

$70.1K Vol.annual

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$34.9K Vol.monthly

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%55%
1.1 – 1.5%27%

$113.6K Vol.

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%71%
4.6-4.9%15%

$67.6K Vol.monthly

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+94%
0.75% to 1.49%3%

$102.7K Vol.

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K29%
$403K - $407K19%

$18.2K Vol.monthly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change77%
25 bps increase24%

$36.4K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change82%
25 bps decrease14%

$54.6K Vol.annual

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%60%
3.0–3.4%22%

$139.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase92%
No change10%

$306.3K Vol.annual

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%56%
5.10%50%

$16.6K Vol.

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.5%40%
5.9%+22%

$29.4K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$445K - $458K26%
$497K - $510K23%

$11.1K Vol.monthly

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.5K Vol.

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple68%
NVIDIA17%

$30.7K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%66%
Below 5.15%53%

$13.8K Vol.weekly

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%78%
↑ 4.5%13%

$1.9M Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%55%
5.35%48%

$26.1K Vol.weekly

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase28%

$12.0K Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change55%
25 bps increase43%

$41.3K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K42%
$519K - $521K17%

$18.3K Vol.monthly

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

53%chance

$18.1K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change93%
Decrease7%

$60.8K Vol.annual

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%66%
Below 4.70%50%

$6.4K Vol.

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%46%
0.2–0.3%22%

$35.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change59%
25 bps decrease38%

$11.1K Vol.annual

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T34%
$1.00-$1.10T30%

$11.2K Vol.monthly

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.923%
55.0 to 55.921%

$11.7K Vol.monthly

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%64%
Below 4.92%52%

$10.9K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines42%
Anduril18%

$215.1K Vol.

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%77%
4.92%74%

$11.1K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%55%
5.14%47%

$15.7K Vol.

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%49%
0-1.0%45%

$57.8K Vol.monthly

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%5%
5.5%2%

$563.7K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.4K Vol.

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8K Vol.2 months left

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%43%
0.2 to 0.3%25%

$28.1K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M25%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$17.3K Vol.monthly

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%72%
↓ 6.50%13%

$98.7K Vol.

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander4%
RBC3%

$82.6K Vol.monthly

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%46%
3.0%+42%

$55.5K Vol.

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

4%chance

$33.8K Vol.3 months left

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%57%
4.00% to 4.49%14%

$84.7K Vol.

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

67%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase76%
No change18%

$33.3K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase22%

$9.9K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$809K - $830K26%
$788K - $809K21%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change44%

$93.8K Vol.annual

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%76%
Below 4.60%53%

$12.9K Vol.

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%86%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.8K Vol.

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%25%
0.0%–0.8%24%

$43.2K Vol.annual

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+32%
<6.8M25%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%86%
5.25%40%

$101.4K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.70%42%
5.73%28%

$19.5K Vol.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

43%chance

$2.2K Vol.2 months left

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.0%33%
3.1%32%

$14.6K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%80%
2.0-2.4%20%

$57.6K Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3076%
October 3167%

$5.9K Vol.