Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change80%
- 25 bps increase20%
$34.9M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase75%
No change24%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.7M Vol.2 months left

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%43%
3.7%38%

$230.9K Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change68%
25 bps increase31%

$375.6K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA75%
Apple20%

$8.1M Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$575.5K Vol.annual

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA92%
Apple6%

$289.7K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%61%
5.5%33%

$971.9K Vol.weekly

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%51%
0.3%31%

$61.9K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M53%
270M8%

$32.4K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%35%
Below 5.15%26%

$68.9K Vol.

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet79%
Microsoft21%

$57.1K Vol.monthly

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%chance

$654.7K Vol.57 days left

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike65%
Hike–Pause–Pause19%

$292.7K Vol.daily

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple88%
NVIDIA11%

$28.6K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$171.7K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
2.0 - 2.5M23%

$114.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$77.9K Vol.annual

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%49%
0.5%34%

$74.6K Vol.monthly

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%40%
3.5-3.9%33%

$62.2K Vol.monthly

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.7K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.2K Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change92%
25 bps decrease5%

$10.2K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%64%
4.00% to 4.49%14%

$84.5K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%85%
5.25%39%

$101.1K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+49%
2.7-2.8M19%

$42.7K Vol.monthly

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%65%
5.80%46%

$211.2K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%67%
5.35%54%

$25.6K Vol.weekly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change61%
25 bps decrease29%

$10.5K Vol.annual

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

53%chance

$17.5K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase3%

$199.0K Vol.annual

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%47%
2.5%34%

$48.7K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%70%
4.6-4.9%14%

$67.1K Vol.monthly

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%95%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3056%
$2.10 to $2.2028%

$33.3K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%56%
5.00%47%

$15.9K Vol.

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple66%
NVIDIA17%

$30.7K Vol.monthly

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%40%
0.6–0.7%24%

$34.8K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%61%
Below 5.15%44%

$13.1K Vol.weekly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%69%
4.92%50%

$10.6K Vol.

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%26%
-0.3% to -0.1%16%

$32.9K Vol.annual

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%14%
Below 4.45%10%

$84.7K Vol.

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3069%
October 3167%

$5.7K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase43%
Fuel duty increase25%

$11.1K Vol.

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%73%
Below 5.52%64%

$13.6K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.08%54%
5.11%48%

$15.3K Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause51%
Pause-Hike-Hike11%

$31.6K Vol.daily

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change68%
25 bps increase23%

$9.7K Vol.annual

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%60%
Below 4.70%52%

$5.9K Vol.

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.2K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change74%
25 bps increase25%

$108.4K Vol.annual

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

RBC3%
BNP Paribas3%

$82.2K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K35%
$407K - $417K19%

$15.2K Vol.monthly

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T32%
$1.00-$1.10T28%

$11.0K Vol.monthly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change74%
25 bps increase27%

$35.1K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.70%36%
5.73%28%

$19.3K Vol.

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%77%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.2K Vol.

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K32%
$519K - $521K21%

$17.7K Vol.monthly

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change92%
Decrease7%

$60.5K Vol.annual

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+95%
<0.75%<1%

$101.9K Vol.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.945%
43.0 to 45.941%

$26.4K Vol.monthly

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%42%
3.0%+41%

$55.4K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%47%
5.50-5.99%28%

$160.7K Vol.

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.2 to 0.3%46%
0.0 to 0.1%26%

$27.8K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$36.1K Vol.monthly

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%27%
0.0%–0.8%24%

$43.0K Vol.annual

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.92%55%
Below 4.95%53%

$10.3K Vol.

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%27%
2.0-2.5%26%

$47.8K Vol.annual

September Inflation China - Annual

0.9% to 1.0%50%
1.1%+25%

$40.9K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%67%
2.0-2.4%23%

$57.3K Vol.

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%29%

$6.5K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$327K+23%
$323K - $327K21%

$14.8K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

72%chance

$27.6K Vol.2 months left

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%72%
↓ 6.50%13%

$98.7K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines43%
Anduril21%

$214.6K Vol.

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K26%
$403K - $407K19%

$17.0K Vol.monthly

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

0-1.0%46%
1.0-2.0%46%

$57.7K Vol.monthly

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.926%
53.0 to 53.922%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet58%
Microsoft35%

$69.7K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M23%
$1.083M - $1.104M21%

$12.4K Vol.monthly

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.4K Vol.2 months left

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+48%
1.0-1.2%41%

$63.3K Vol.annual

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%75%
↑ 4.5%14%

$1.9M Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase53%
No change43%

$93.5K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change55%
25 bps increase46%

$40.7K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M22%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$16.9K Vol.monthly

$24.2K Vol.annual

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%78%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.5K Vol.

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

82%chance

$2.2K Vol.8 months left

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+34%
<6.8M25%

$13.8K Vol.monthly

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3118%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.9%+32%
5.7%20%

$28.4K Vol.monthly

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%42%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.1K Vol.

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase64%
No Change22%

$10.8K Vol.monthly

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

2.5–2.9%35%
3.0–3.4%30%

$62.0K Vol.annual

How many jobs added in October?

100k+30%
50k to 75k17%

$21.1K Vol.monthly

2026 World GDP Growth

3.1%30%
3.0%29%

$76.3K Vol.

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%57%
1.2-1.5%31%

$68.5K Vol.annual

US recession by end of 2027?

34%chance

$10.9K Vol.1 year left

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

12%chance

$30.8K Vol.2 months left

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%59%
3.0–3.4%20%

$138.3K Vol.monthly

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.926%
55.0 to 55.921%

$13.8K Vol.monthly

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

42%chance

$4.0K Vol.18 days left

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

1600.00–1699.9940%
<1600.0037%

$22.4K Vol.monthly

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%13%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

7%chance

$92.1K Vol.2 months left