Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change84%
- 25 bps increase17%
$32.2M Vol.monthly

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.6M Vol.2 months left

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA84%
Apple14%

$8.1M Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Annual

3.7%43%
3.6%41%

$181.8K Vol.monthly

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

77%chance

$642.5K Vol.58 days left

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.0M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase75%
No change23%

$3.0M Vol.monthly

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet62%
Microsoft30%

$68.8K Vol.monthly

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%49%
0.3%34%

$46.5K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA96%
Apple4%

$242.2K Vol.monthly

2026 World GDP Growth

3.1%29%
3.0%29%

$76.2K Vol.

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%48%
0.5%37%

$69.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase90%
No change10%

$304.7K Vol.annual

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change92%
25 bps increase6%

$12.3K Vol.

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%69%
4.7-5.0%19%

$90.4K Vol.

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%92%
5.0–6.0%5%

$928.5K Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change66%
25 bps increase32%

$295.7K Vol.monthly

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting54%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase54%
No change40%

$93.2K Vol.annual

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%91%
0-1%8%

$111.5K Vol.

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet87%
Microsoft12%

$36.8K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$350.3K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%62%
5.5%40%

$960.1K Vol.weekly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+92%
31M+85%

$32.8K Vol.monthly

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%78%
↑ 4.5%13%

$1.9M Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$72.0K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$165.0K Vol.annual

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.2 to 0.3%44%
0.0 to 0.1%28%

$27.1K Vol.monthly

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3084%
October 3168%

$4.5K Vol.

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change88%
Decrease9%

$59.5K Vol.annual

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%66%
2.5–3.0%16%

$53.2K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K20%
$403K - $407K18%

$16.6K Vol.monthly

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%42%
2.5%36%

$46.3K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%88%
5.25%39%

$98.3K Vol.

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%22%
Below 5.15%17%

$59.5K Vol.

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

14%chance

$1.9K Vol.19 days left

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change84%
25 bps increase16%

$87.7K Vol.annual

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

14%chance

$7.5K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase72%
No Change16%

$10.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%67%
Below 5.15%59%

$11.3K Vol.weekly

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M22%
$1.083M - $1.104M21%

$12.1K Vol.monthly

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+33%
<6.8M21%

$11.8K Vol.monthly

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease27%

$24.0K Vol.annual

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple93%
NVIDIA4%

$21.2K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%57%
5.35%51%

$21.2K Vol.weekly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

-0.3% to -0.1%34%
0.0% to 0.2%19%

$31.6K Vol.annual

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines41%
Anduril24%

$213.8K Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in December?

25 bps decrease44%
No change44%

$7.5K Vol.annual

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

RBC3%
KeyBank3%

$81.5K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%75%
4.6-4.9%16%

$65.2K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%15%
Below 4.45%10%

$83.8K Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause63%
Pause-Pause-Pause11%

$28.0K Vol.daily

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.00%55%
4.90%45%

$14.8K Vol.

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.9%+35%
5.7%19%

$28.1K Vol.monthly

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

36%chance

$3.9K Vol.19 days left

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

0-1.0%51%
1.0-2.0%46%

$57.3K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%67%
2.0-2.4%23%

$56.9K Vol.

September Inflation China - Annual

0.9% to 1.0%60%
1.1%+28%

$40.4K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M26%
3.0 - 3.5M26%

$105.9K Vol.monthly

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%29%

$5.1K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%32%
4.00% to 4.49%32%

$81.1K Vol.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

42%chance

$1.8K Vol.2 months left

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

2.5–2.9%35%
3.0–3.4%35%

$61.8K Vol.annual

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change95%
25 bps increase5%

$197.2K Vol.annual

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M57%
270M10%

$19.0K Vol.monthly

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$1.00-$1.10T50%
$900B-$1.00T32%

$9.8K Vol.monthly

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase42%
Fuel duty increase30%

$10.1K Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change90%
25 bps increase5%

$7.0K Vol.monthly

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%13%
Above 5%8%

$1.5M Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change93%
25 bps increase7%

$522.4K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K51%
$519K - $521K20%

$16.9K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$34.8K Vol.monthly

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

$717.9K Vol.

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.921%
51.0 to 51.920%

$10.9K Vol.monthly

How many jobs added in October?

100k+30%
50k to 75k19%

$21.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change72%
25 bps decrease20%

$52.5K Vol.annual

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.70%54%
5.73%54%

$18.1K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%77%
5.80%60%

$205.1K Vol.