Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change80%
- 25 bps increase20%
$34.9M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase75%
No change24%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.7M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in January?

No change68%
25 bps increase31%

$376.7K Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%43%
3.7%39%

$231.1K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA75%
Apple20%

$8.1M Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$575.5K Vol.annual

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA93%
Apple6%

$289.7K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%61%
5.5%33%

$971.9K Vol.weekly

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%51%
0.3%31%

$62.5K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M42%
270M7%

$32.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%36%
Below 5.15%26%

$68.9K Vol.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

81%chance

$655.7K Vol.57 days left

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet77%
Microsoft22%

$57.1K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike65%
Hike–Pause–Pause19%

$293.3K Vol.daily

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple88%
NVIDIA11%

$28.6K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$171.7K Vol.annual

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%49%
0.5%34%

$76.1K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
2.0 - 2.5M23%

$114.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$77.9K Vol.annual

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%38%
3.5-3.9%37%

$62.3K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.7K Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.3K Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change92%
25 bps decrease5%

$10.2K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%57%
4.00% to 4.49%17%

$84.5K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%85%
5.25%39%

$101.1K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%65%
5.80%45%

$211.2K Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$199.5K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%60%
5.35%54%

$25.7K Vol.weekly

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause61%
Pause-Hike-Hike12%

$33.1K Vol.daily

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+49%
2.7-2.8M19%

$42.7K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change62%
25 bps decrease32%

$10.6K Vol.annual

$48.7K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%71%
4.6-4.9%14%

$67.1K Vol.monthly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change74%
25 bps increase23%

$35.8K Vol.

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%95%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

-0.3% to -0.1%28%
0.0% to 0.2%24%

$33.4K Vol.annual

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%56%
5.00%53%

$16.0K Vol.

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3057%
$2.10 to $2.2030%

$33.3K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple67%
NVIDIA16%

$30.7K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%75%
Below 5.52%55%

$13.7K Vol.

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3070%
October 3167%

$5.8K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%64%
Below 5.15%51%

$13.3K Vol.weekly

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%43%
0.2–0.3%23%

$34.8K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%77%
4.89%69%

$10.6K Vol.

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

RBC3%
HSBC3%

$82.3K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%56%
5.08%50%

$15.3K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase25%

$11.2K Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change54%
25 bps increase43%

$41.2K Vol.annual

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change68%
25 bps increase23%

$9.7K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K41%
$521K+18%

$18.1K Vol.monthly

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.2K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%14%
Below 4.45%10%

$84.7K Vol.

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K40%
$407K - $417K19%

$15.2K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%74%
2.0-2.4%20%

$57.5K Vol.

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change92%
Decrease7%

$60.5K Vol.annual

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%77%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.2K Vol.

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.2 to 0.3%46%
0.0 to 0.1%30%

$27.9K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change74%
25 bps increase25%

$108.4K Vol.annual

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%61%
Below 4.70%60%

$6.0K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.70%44%
5.73%33%

$19.4K Vol.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T36%
$1.00-$1.10T25%

$11.0K Vol.monthly

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+96%
<0.75%<1%

$101.9K Vol.

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%45%
3.0%+35%

$55.4K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$36.1K Vol.monthly

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change78%
25 bps decrease20%

$53.9K Vol.annual

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%47%
4.50-4.99%24%

$160.7K Vol.

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.0-2.5%26%
2.5-3.0%26%

$47.8K Vol.annual

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%44%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.4K Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.92%56%
Below 4.95%54%

$10.3K Vol.

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$323K - $327K25%
$327K+23%

$14.8K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K32%
$415K - $419K20%

$17.1K Vol.monthly

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%27%
0.0%–0.8%24%

$43.0K Vol.annual

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%72%
↓ 6.50%13%

$98.7K Vol.

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

51.0 to 51.921%
53.0 to 53.921%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%46%
0-1.0%45%

$57.7K Vol.monthly

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet63%
Microsoft30%

$69.8K Vol.monthly

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+32%
<6.8M24%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines42%
Anduril20%

$214.6K Vol.

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

$1.125M - $1.146M24%
<$1.062M23%

$12.4K Vol.monthly

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+46%
1.0-1.2%42%

$63.3K Vol.annual

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change43%

$93.5K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M22%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$16.9K Vol.monthly

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

9%chance

$121.9K Vol.2 months left

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%78%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.5K Vol.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

43%chance

$2.1K Vol.2 months left

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%75%
↑ 4.5%18%

$1.9M Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

83%chance

$2.2K Vol.8 months left

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.4K Vol.2 months left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3118%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.9%+31%
5.7%19%

$28.4K Vol.monthly