Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change80%
- 25 bps increase20%
$34.8M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.1M Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA77%
Apple22%

$8.1M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

16%chance

$14.7M Vol.2 months left

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA91%
Apple7%

$284.9K Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%45%
3.7%38%

$215.0K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%51%
0.3%31%

$60.5K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%60%
5.5%33%

$971.9K Vol.weekly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike62%
Hike–Pause–Pause20%

$286.8K Vol.daily

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$555.5K Vol.annual

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%35%
Below 5.15%26%

$68.8K Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M68%
270M10%

$31.5K Vol.monthly

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet77%
Microsoft23%

$57.1K Vol.monthly

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple87%
NVIDIA10%

$28.6K Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change65%
25 bps increase33%

$346.0K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
2.0 - 2.5M23%

$114.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$171.4K Vol.annual

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

81%chance

$651.1K Vol.57 days left

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%40%
3.5-3.9%30%

$62.1K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+52%
2.7-2.8M20%

$42.4K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.7K Vol.

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%59%
4.00% to 4.49%16%

$84.5K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.0K Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change92%
25 bps decrease4%

$10.2K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change90%
Decrease11%

$75.3K Vol.annual

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%85%
5.25%39%

$101.1K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%65%
5.80%46%

$211.2K Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%61%
5.35%52%

$25.3K Vol.weekly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change61%
25 bps decrease31%

$10.5K Vol.annual

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

53%chance

$17.5K Vol.2 months left

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%47%
2.5%34%

$48.4K Vol.monthly

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3056%
$2.10 to $2.2028%

$33.3K Vol.monthly

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%95%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%77%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.1K Vol.

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change74%
25 bps increase27%

$35.1K Vol.

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple65%
NVIDIA17%

$30.7K Vol.monthly

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%60%
25-29.9%35%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$8.6K Vol.monthly

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.73%28%
5.70%27%

$19.3K Vol.

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%69%
4.92%49%

$10.5K Vol.

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%44%
0.2–0.3%23%

$34.7K Vol.monthly

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3071%
October 3166%

$5.7K Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%14%
Below 4.45%10%

$84.7K Vol.

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%26%
-0.3% to -0.1%17%

$32.8K Vol.annual

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.2K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%77%
4.6-4.9%13%

$66.2K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.08%52%
5.11%51%

$15.2K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase43%
Fuel duty increase25%

$11.1K Vol.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$1.00-$1.10T39%
$900B-$1.00T35%

$10.6K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K43%
$407K - $417K19%

$15.2K Vol.monthly

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

RBC3%
Santander3%

$82.2K Vol.monthly

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%30%

$6.5K Vol.monthly

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines42%
Anduril20%

$214.4K Vol.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.946%
43.0 to 45.944%

$26.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

75%chance

$27.6K Vol.2 months left

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+33%
7.2M to 7.3M22%

$13.7K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%65%
Below 4.92%56%

$10.1K Vol.

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%64%
Below 4.70%60%

$5.7K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase57%
No change36%

$38.9K Vol.annual

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.0%–0.8%23%
0.8%–1.6%23%

$42.9K Vol.annual

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change92%
Decrease8%

$60.0K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$327K+23%
$323K - $327K20%

$14.8K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K49%
$503K - $507K14%

$17.5K Vol.monthly

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%42%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.1K Vol.

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$471K - $484K22%
$445K - $458K21%

$10.1K Vol.monthly

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase89%
No change10%

$305.1K Vol.annual

September Inflation China - Annual

0.9% to 1.0%54%
1.1%+22%

$40.8K Vol.monthly

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change95%
25 bps hike5%

$38.4K Vol.annual

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%78%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.3K Vol.

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+43%
1.0-1.2%42%

$63.3K Vol.annual

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%75%
↑ 4.5%15%

$1.9M Vol.

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%28%
2.0-2.5%27%

$47.6K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase53%
No change43%

$93.5K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M22%
$1.115M - $1.126M19%

$16.9K Vol.monthly

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%42%
3.0%+33%

$55.1K Vol.

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet64%
Microsoft28%

$69.5K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K33%
$415K - $419K21%

$16.9K Vol.monthly

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.2 to 0.3%42%
0.0 to 0.1%34%

$27.5K Vol.monthly

$57.1K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%46%
4.50-4.99%34%

$160.2K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$33.3K Vol.monthly

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%5%
5.5%2%

$563.2K Vol.

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%77%
Below 4.60%72%

$12.6K Vol.

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%90%
0-1%6%

$111.6K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change78%
25 bps decrease17%

$53.4K Vol.annual