Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change84%
- 25 bps increase17%
$32.1M Vol.monthly

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.6M Vol.2 months left

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.0M Vol.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

77%chance

$634.6K Vol.59 days left

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase75%
No change23%

$3.0M Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Annual

3.7%44%
3.6%42%

$151.4K Vol.monthly

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%49%
0.3%35%

$45.1K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA96%
Apple4%

$241.8K Vol.monthly

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Microsoft43%
Alphabet41%

$62.0K Vol.monthly

2026 World GDP Growth

3.0%29%
3.1%26%

$74.4K Vol.

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase89%
No change10%

$304.2K Vol.annual

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%62%
4.7-5.0%12%

$86.1K Vol.

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3053%
$2.10 to $2.2026%

$31.5K Vol.monthly

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

43.0 to 45.953%
46.0 to 48.947%

$25.4K Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change66%
25 bps increase32%

$295.7K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M57%
270M8%

$19.0K Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%48%
0.5%37%

$66.0K Vol.monthly

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%92%
5.0–6.0%4%

$928.4K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%7%

$350.3K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase51%
No change36%

$91.5K Vol.annual

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%64%
5.5%40%

$960.0K Vol.weekly

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet88%
Microsoft13%

$36.8K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA84%
Apple15%

$8.0M Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%88%
5.25%39%

$98.3K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines55%
Anduril24%

$213.8K Vol.

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

-0.3% to -0.1%31%
0.0% to 0.2%18%

$31.5K Vol.annual

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change95%
25 bps increase4%

$197.2K Vol.annual

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change93%
25 bps increase7%

$522.2K Vol.annual

US recession by end of 2026?

7%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+92%
31M+85%

$32.6K Vol.monthly

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3075%
October 3167%

$4.5K Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$71.8K Vol.annual

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%30%

$4.9K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+65%
2.6-2.7M22%

$37.1K Vol.monthly

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.2 to 0.3%43%
0.0 to 0.1%30%

$27.0K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

4.00% to 4.49%32%
3.50% to 3.99%32%

$81.1K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$34.7K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

<$403K20%
$403K - $407K20%

$16.1K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

25 bps decrease44%
No change44%

$7.5K Vol.annual

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%77%
↑ 4.5%13%

$1.9M Vol.

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$101.0K Vol.

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K44%
$407K - $417K19%

$14.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change88%
Decrease8%

$59.4K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change83%
25 bps increase14%

$163.8K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M26%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$16.5K Vol.monthly

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%65%
2.5–3.0%16%

$53.1K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase67%
No change31%

$13.3K Vol.annual

How many jobs added in October?

100k+30%
50k to 75k19%

$20.9K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike67%
Hike–Pause–Pause22%

$269.5K Vol.daily

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%45%
5.00%42%

$14.6K Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change90%
25 bps increase5%

$7.0K Vol.monthly

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

12%chance

$1.8K Vol.20 days left

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%22%
Below 5.15%17%

$59.5K Vol.

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

14%chance

$7.5K Vol.2 months left

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.5%37%
2.4%34%

$45.9K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%65%
Below 5.15%57%

$11.3K Vol.weekly

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%61%
3.0–3.4%20%

$137.6K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase68%
No Change17%

$10.5K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple93%
NVIDIA4%

$21.2K Vol.monthly