Science

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Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?

October 31, 20266%
October 15, 2026<1%

$89.1K Vol.

Plague pandemic in 2026?

2%chance

$402.8K Vol.2 months left

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

35 to 4952%
20 to 3419%

$47.9K Vol.

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

080%
111%

$335.7K Vol.

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 202755%
December 31, 202616%

$827.9K Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑4.5k>99%
↑4.75k97%

$8.1M Vol.monthly

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 202767%
December 31, 202621%

$435.5K Vol.

Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?

4%chance

$100.3K Vol.2 months left

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

December 31, 202767%
September 30, 202722%

$179.6K Vol.

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

December 31, 202836%
December 31, 202713%

$436.0K Vol.

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

June 30, 2027?63%
March 31, 202756%

$61.8K Vol.

Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?

December 31, 202711%
December 31, 20262%

$39.2K Vol.

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Anthropic52%
SpaceX46%

$6.5M Vol.

$17.4K Vol.

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<561%
5-635%

$524.6K Vol.annual

Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?

4100+>99%
4200+>99%

$13.7K Vol.monthly

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

$30.2K Vol.

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

December 3119%
October 315%

$10.5K Vol.

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

140-15975%
120-13910%

$336.3K Vol.monthly

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

3%chance

$595.2K Vol.2 months left

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

31%chance

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

Plague case in US by December 31?

9%chance

$13.0K Vol.2 months left

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

$20.7K Vol.

How many SpaceX launches in October 2026?

<1488%
1512%

$1.3K Vol.monthly

Human moon landing in 2026?

1%chance

$2.0M Vol.2 months left

Trump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?

11%chance

$938.4 Vol.8 months left

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%chance

$79.9 Vol.2 months left

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%chance

$1.1K Vol.2 months left

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

December 31, 202831%
December 31, 202718%

$24.8K Vol.

Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?

4%chance

$723.4 Vol.2 months left

Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?

6%chance

$294.8 Vol.18 days left

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

78%chance

$1.0K Vol.1 year left

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

7%chance

$11.8K Vol.2 months left

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

71%chance

$13.2K Vol.1 year left

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

December 31, 202766%
June 30, 202731%

$1.1M Vol.

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

3%chance

$27.8K Vol.2 months left

New pandemic in 2026?

5%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Plague pandemic in 2026?

Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Plague case in US by December 31?

Human moon landing in 2026?

Trump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?

Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

New pandemic in 2026?