Politics

39 events

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Democrats Sweep62%
- R Senate, D House28%
$22.4M Vol.

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Max Spread ±4.5¢

Min Shares 200

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 12>99%
October 1596%

$11.1M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 12>99%
October 1595%

$1.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$979.8K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen42%
Édouard Philippe22%

$149.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?

340-35969%
360-37918%

$3.3M Vol.weekly

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$73.8M Vol.2 months left

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3166%
December 3143%

$39.4M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 312%

$72.9M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Jon Ossoff16%

$1.3B Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot45%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.7M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election

$180.4M Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.1M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

26%chance

$138.9K Vol.Ended

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)36%

$3.4M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance23%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$715.6M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

220-23925%
240-25920%

$977.4K Vol.weekly

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$16.5M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$111.4K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić72%
Ilija Srdanović17%

$1.1M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance48%
Marco Rubio15%

$711.1M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.6M Vol.2 months left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$16.9M Vol.

Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202722%

$565.9K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

$41.8M Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202718%

$691.4K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$43.9M Vol.2 months left

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

21%chance

$157.2K Vol.19 days left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202761%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202746%
June 30, 202734%

$2.9M Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an65%
Puma Shen35%

$869.9K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$45.0K Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202766%

$8.5M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro72%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202721%

$687.6K Vol.

Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?